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HIGH-LEVEL SEDUCTION: Retail Investors Conditioned – TERRIBLE!

Tom Beck
June 12th, 2020
Portfolio Wealth Global
Comments (8)

This article was contributed by Tom Beck with Portfolio Wealth Global.

The retail public is feeling PRETTY DARN good at the moment. Anything they bought in April and May is up big!

What the retail public, especially 30-40-year-olds have been taught since 2009, is that DIPS are to be BOUGHT, because Mother Goose will make sure those prices FLY OFF THE CHARTS.

The lesson they’ve been experiencing for 12 years is that the Federal Reserve will make everything better, so unlike the baby boomers, who are retired and HATE VOLATILITY, the younger generations are buying.

What are they buying, though? When the S&P 500 companies are trading at a forward multiple of 20 or more, it means that they’re buying an asset that is yielding about 5%, nearly 60% BELOW its historical value proposition.

My feeling is that with the same speed they CAME IN, they will LEAVE with the first shakeout of confidence.

Just so I’m clear, buying the dips is NOT A MISTAKE, but buying without an exit strategy is!

That’s what I think is happening; the retail public bought companies, which may or may not come back stronger and it overpaid for many stocks. FUNDAMENTALLY SPEAKING, the truth is that if rates were just a bit higher, the basket of viable companies would DROP BY HALF!

When I own a company, I want to know that it can function in tougher environments as well, and December 2018 proved that most can’t.

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

What this chart is telling us, though, is that the MARCH PANIC wasn’t a real bear market, the reason being that bear markets CHANGE BEHAVIOR and nothing has changed for the FANG stocks.

They’re still in favor and, as long as this continues, the trend will remain the same.

We have to accept that the business world is becoming CONCENTRATED.

These companies are not monopolies, but they amount to the same thing: EVERYONE uses their products and they’re extremely innovative and competitive. Therefore, unlike in previous historic rallies, the leaders this time are basically blue-chip tech stocks.

To me, this means that we haven’t seen the end of this cyclical dominance of tech companies.

This doesn’t mean that they’ll be INDEX-CRUSHERS in the next 2-3 years. In my opinion, after doing tremendous research, the REAL MONEY is in buying the most beaten-down household names, which are in the hotel, casino, cruise line, air travel and oil businesses – and the same goes with retail malls.

These WILL NOT be long-term holdings, but within 2-3 years some of them will be worth JUST AS MUCH as they were before the crisis, so if they’re down by 50%, we can make a 100% gain WITH LOW RISK.

In the months ahead, as people go back to normal, the critical thing to watch for is how fast unemployment numbers go down. If Americans can’t resume pre-crisis jobs, the real crisis will BE AHEAD OF US, not behind us.

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Author: Tom Beck
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Date: June 12th, 2020
Website: https://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com/

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8 Comments...

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  1. Andrea.Iravani. says:

    A fool and his money are soon parted. Some things never change. The lure of fast easy money is just too much for chumps to resist. Unfortunately, their actions will have the effect of destroying liberty and the economy. We will all suffer the consequences of the chumps.
    -Andrea Iravani

  2. Anonymous says:

    I don’t think fundamentals apply in stock market investing anymore. Look at Hertz. Right after it filed for bankruptcy, the stock took off and was valued at more than it was before they filed.

    Why? Because all the casinos in Vegas were closed so the high rollers had to do their betting online…in the stock market casino…

  3. Andrea.Iravani. says:

    Germany is concerned that Nordstream 2 Sanctions imposed by Wall Streets Liasons ( the government ) may affect federal agencies in Germany.
    https://sputniknews.com/business/202006121079593425-berlin-reportedly-fears-new-us-sanctions-on-nord-stream-2-could-affect-german-state/

  4. cranerigger says:

    Ridiculously high debt, ridiculously over-promised future obligations (social security, Medicare, FDIC, etc. managed by folks in congress that can NOT reconcile (“balance”) a checkbook. What could possibly go wrong.

    On another note, the Demonrat Mayor of Seattle has demonstrated her utter disregard for law-abiding, tax-paying CITIZENS. The uninformed (he claimed to be unaware of the 6-block takeover in Seattle), imbecilic Governor of Washinton state is no better. What do these fools have in common with other cretins? On the ballot they have a “D” after their name. Please pay attention when you vote. Expect massive prosecutions for cheating – substantial sentences are in order.

  5. Andrea.Iravani. says:

    Germany is concerned that Nordstream 2 Sanctions imposed by Wall Streets Liaisons ( the government ) may affect federal agencies in Germany.
    https://sputniknews.com/business/202006121079593425-berlin-reportedly-fears-new-us-sanctions-on-nord-stream-2-could-affect-german-state/

    -Andrea Iravani

  6. Andrea.Iravani. says:

    The BLM protests have Wall Streets fingerprints all over it. Ford Foundation, Soros, Gates, and the whole cabal, basically. The protesters are nothing but useful idiots for Wall Street, just another brick in the wall according to Wall Street! Anything but another Occupy Wall Street protest! Anything but that! COVID lockdown, BLM protests, riots, war with Russia, China, or Iran, but don’t tear down the Wall! Hey, look over there! Keep your eyes off the Wall Street fraud and looting!
    -Andrea Iravani

  7. TharSheBlows says:

    FAKE RALLY / Dead Cat Bounce using $2.5 Trillion in Fed money printed out of thin air in APril and May. Buy Physical silver on the dips instead and keep it in your own control and hands. Stocks are an IOU promise, Roulette wheel. Pigs get slaughtered. Get out now.

  8. Andrea.Iravani. says:

    We as a nation are still suffering the consequences of everything that happened under the Bill Clinton Presidency. All of the problems that we are currently suffering from, can be directly attributed to policies that occured under his presidency. Goldman Sachs basically overthrew the executive branch in 1992. Under the stewardship of the Goldman Sachs invisible coup, blue sky laws were eliminated for tech start-up companies. Blue Sky laws require comanies that wish to list on stock exchanges prove that they have viable business models. As a result of the elimination of Blue Sky laws, there are now less than a dozen companies that use GAAP ( generally accepted accounting principles ), now many companies use EBITDA, ( earnings before income taxes, depriciation, and ammitorization ), leaving the P/E price to earnings ratio, a completely imiginary number. Other harmful de-regulation that occured under the invisible Goldman Sachs Coup was by allowing foreign banks for the first time in history to become Federal Reserve member banks, providing foreign banks with a vacuum cleaner to start sucking money out of the Treasury Department paid for by U.S. citizens, in the most enormous wealth transfer in world history to European owned banks, which they also recieve bail-out money from, for which those summs have not been disclosed to the public. The repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act also happened under the Clinton Sachs presidency, as well as the Graham Leach Bliley Act. The Silicon Valley surveillance state is totally guilty of outright fraud, which not only caused the Dot Com Crash in 2000, but led to the inside job World Trade Tower controlled demolition implosion, and the faked Pentagon attack on the “defenseless” Pentagon and was used not only for going to war against seven countries and an entire religion that had nothing at all to do with the attack, but to enact the Patriot Act and create the Department of Homeland Security, which was all just a gimmick used to pump more money into Silicon Valley tech companies since they did not have a viable business model. Their secret business model is treason, and terrorism, demanding ever increasing amounts of money from the government which they use to spy on American citizens and destroy their lives, which brings us to the COVID hoax, suddenly demanding even more money to spy on people on the ludicrous claim of contact tracing. This is simply too insane for any rational person to believe. Silicon Valley is now simultaeneously turning the Federal government against China for the development of Huawei phones, after they willingly handed technology blue-prints and national security secrets using technology and components created by the military, which was also allowed by the Clinton Sachs presidency, and they are also having Xi Jin Ping attack the Federal government for charging import taxes on Silicon Valley products made in China. These people are diabolical terrorists! Obviously they are black mailing the government. Most politicians are extremely wealthy people who do not need more money, so it is extremely doubtful that they are merely bribing politicians to go along with these diabolical acts of treason and 
    terror. They are in the buiness if spying, and they have obviously spied on the Federal government and state and local governments, banks, and other business leaders, and politicians and must be black mailing them by way of disclosure to comply with their evil, diabolical, treasonous, insane policies. It has been well documented that the COVID hoax was planned as early as 2003. Bill Gates patented the coronavirus, and also wants to patent a vaccine for it, even though it is no more life threatening than the flu. These psychopaths from Goldman Sachs and Silicon Valley must be exposed for the beasts that they are and destroyed so that the rest of the world will no longer be their victims, and it actually is the whole world that they are after. Sergey Brinn and Larry Page founders of Google resigned on December 19, 2019. Coincidence, or convenience?! Lloyd Blankfein former Goldman Sachs CEO also announced his resignation on July 17, 2018, effective for September of 2018, and Blankfein just “might” have had insight that the whole house of cards was soon to collapse, in addition to Stanley Fischer, former Fed head who resigned October 13, 2017, and ran away to Israel in remote hiding. So, those are just some of the problems that are keeping America from being great! Those problems must be done away with so that we can return to being a legitimate nation. Unfortunately, too many chumps are perfectly content to trade liberty for short term gains in the stock market, so America is not great, because Americans are not great, and that is the ugly reality that nobody wants to admit, because if the majority of Americans were great, America would in fact be great, and there is no denying that.
    -Andrea Iravani

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