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Goldman “Recalibrates” Fed Forecast: No More Rate Hikes Before 2020 Election

Tyler Durden
April 12th, 2019
Zero Hedge
Comments (30) Read by 1,513 people

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This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

Less than six months ago, the ‘smartest men (and women we are sure) in the room’ at Goldman Sachs’ prestigious economics department were in full hawktard mode – forecasting four rate-hikes in 2019, providing cover for a desperate-to-get-back-to-normal Fed’s rate trajectory guesses.

Since then, Hatzius and his honchos have slowly but surely folded to the market’s view, with his latest note proclaiming with no smile on their face that growth will be better than they expect in 2019 and 2020 BUT… pushing back their forecast for the next hike from 2020Q1 to 2020Q4.

The ‘excuses‘ that Hatzius et al. use this time for their even-more-dovish tilt – despite rosier growth forecasts – are simple: no-flation and Trump.

While the growth news has been encouraging, the inflation numbers have surprised to the downside. Following this morning’s PPI report, we now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to slow to 1.64% in the March print and to end 2019 at 1.9%, vs. the 2.1% we had expected just a few weeks ago (Exhibit 2).

At the same time, the goalposts for the next rate hike have shifted and could move even further back as the Fed undertakes a review of its policy framework. The FOMC’s emphasis on “muted inflation pressures” as a reason for patience suggests that above-2% inflation is now almost a necessary criterion for further tightening, making a rate hike later this year quite unlikely.

The Fed’s framework debate is scheduled to wrap up in the first half of 2020, and at this point the adoption of average inflation targeting (AIT) appears to be the most likely outcome. The shift away from price-level targeting (PLT), the previous front-runner, toward AIT was a surprise to us this year. Whereas temporary PLT would not have had obvious policy implications until the next recession hit, the adoption of AIT would have immediate dovish implications by raising the inflation target for expansion periods, perhaps to roughly 2¼%. This would further reduce the odds of a rate hike in early 2020 because hiking just as the new framework is being introduced would risk sending a mixed message that could undermine its credibility.

A final consideration is that the Fed has increasingly been placed in a political spotlight. Greater political scrutiny of monetary policy decisions probably further reduces the odds of a rate hike in a presidential election year until after the elections are over.

For these reasons, we are pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from 2020Q1 to 2020Q4.

Furthermore, despite the market’s insistence that The Fed will cut rates next, Goldman insists the next move is much more likely to be a rate hike:

The low level of the funds rate makes a 1995-style “recalibration” cut very unlikely, especially with downside risks now fading. We also think the bar would be very high for the FOMC to cut solely in response to low inflation, even if it adopts AIT. Instead, rate cuts would likely have to be a response to concerns among Fed officials about recession risk, and neither we nor they see signs that recession risk is particularly elevated. As a result, the odds of rate cuts discounted in the bond market look too high.

Beyond 2020, we expect the expansion to continue and think the most likely response from the Fed will be further gradual tightening. The US business cycle has historically had two main modes: when not in recession, the economy tends to grow at an above-trend pace and the unemployment rate tends to fall. We think the Fed is unlikely to remain on pause indefinitely under those circumstances, and we are therefore adding another rate hike to our forecast in 2021Q2.

Finally, Goldman does not expect every FOMC participant to sympathize with all of their arguments when the time comes to revisit rate hikes.

Some are already comfortable with a “no lean” policy stance, and some will be comfortable keeping rates on hold even under the economic conditions we envision. But we do think these considerations will be persuasive to enough of the Committee that the most likely compromise after the 2020 elections will be a very gradual pace of further tightening, beginning with a hike in December 2020 and continuing with another hike in 2021.

Still, when your forecast – like The Fed’s – can pivot so hard, so fast with zero consequence for your career or reputation it seems, anything is possible.

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Author: Tyler Durden
Views: Read by 1,513 people
Date: April 12th, 2019
Website: https://www.zerohedge.com/

Copyright Information: This content has been contributed to SHTFplan by a third-party or has been republished with permission from the author. Please contact the author directly for republishing information.

30 Comments...

Vote: Click here to vote for SHTF Plan as a Top Prepper Web Site
  1. It’s falling apart no matter what. Look at federal spending. Look at the national debt.
    Don’t want to be around for the reset.

  2. Concerned Republican says:

    FYI… 80% of wealthy Wall Street big shots want Trump to be re-elected and believe that he will be.

  3. Menzoberranzan says:

    Off topic but I felt like saying the scum muslims and socialists in congress and elsewhere can burn in hell. These are the sickest, most evil pieces of shit I’ve ever seen in my life. The level of depravity in this country is off the scale.

  4. john stiner says:

    If the FED wants to keep the ponzi scheme going, they won’t raise rates.

    BUT….. A good economy HELPS TRUMP. Trump will win 2020 if the economy is doing great.

    Are they going to allow that or are they going to intentionally cause a recession to end Trump’s wave of good economic growth?

    I think the latter.

  5. rellik says:

    What really pi$$es me off is the inflation rate. When we as a society, get more efficient at producing something like wheat, rice, computers, cars, or whatever, we see those prices increasing, when prices should be decreasing. We should see negative inflation. TPTB do this inflation on purpose as they think inflation is growth, when in fact it is theft.
    Why is the tuition at my Alma mater more than doubled for the identical degree? Same classes, same mathematics, same science, mostly the same buildings(and the new ones were donated), same size campus, but it’s 29 years later.
    Why has my home tripled in value in 19 years? Same land, same structure although no longer new.
    There is no way most middle class people could deal with these inflation’s when most wages have not and likely will not keep up
    with the artificial inflation caused by our government.

    • Genius says:

      Ehhhh what ya gonna do? If I were you I’d make me some pineapple/coconut shine! I bet that would be great! I’ll give you an idea for a recipe if ya want. Sell it for 35 a quart and forget about inflation! I bet you’d make a ton on it. 🙂

      • rellik says:

        Gen,
        I’ll take that recipe!
        Most guys here are beer and Pakalolo
        types.
        Although I’m strictly a beer guy, I’d be more than willing to
        make pineapple “shine”. I know some cowboys that would trade
        me some help with cattle for it.

        • Genius says:

          relik, ok I have never made it but it should be about the same as any fruit shine.

          Recipe for 4 gallons of mash: In a 5 gallon bucket add crushed pineapple 3 inches deep. Add 8 pounds of cane sugar, 7 teaspoons fermax yeast nutrient, 1 cup corn sugar (optional, just makes it start faster), 1.5 gallons steaming (not boiling) water. Stir till everything is dissolved. Add cool water a little at a time while checking the temperature. You want to be at 95 degrees F when your at the 4 gallon level. Once you have this sprinkle 3 teaspoons distillers yeast around the top surface. Set the lid on (not snapped just lay it on) and let it set for 15-20 minutes. Stir the yeast gently into the mash. If you don’t have an airlock for the lid then drill a 1/8 inch hole or two in the top of it and attach the lid securely. Keep the bucket between 70-90 degrees F. After 5 days give the bucket a light sloshing once a day to make sure it gets mixed and works all the sugar off. If your not using an airlock (shows bubbles when working off) then take the lid off and shine a bright flashlight down through the mash. You should see tiny, tiny bubbles coming up, if not then taste the mash and if it isn’t sweet then it’s ready to run. If there are no bubbles and it is still a little sweet thats ok, the main thing is it stops bubbling.

          Run the mash in the still (make sure you strain the fruit out and do not get yeast waste in with it). Run it till the proof out of the pipe is 60. Take the shine and taste it, Add pineapple juice and cane sugar (a little at a time) to achieve a good flavor (no more than 50% or it will be too weak). Can it and yer done. For stronger shine you can use pineapple extract instead of juice (this will take less hence more alcohol).

          If you need info on where to get a still with no paperwork or how to do it just ask. GOOD LUCK AND CHEERS! 😛

  6. Nine year old hangs in suicide after being bullied repeatedly by Muslims in Birmingham, England.

    Homeschool.

    This child was bullied for being white.

    Aaron Dugmore is the youngest child in the U.K. to die from suicide. His death is being covered up. The administration of the school told his mother that she didn’t have to send her kid to the school, she chose to send him.

    .

    .

  7. Ketchupondemand says:

    “Vote: Click here to vote for SHTF Plan as a Top Prepper Web Site”
    ” Click here to subscribe: Join over one million monthly readers and receive breaking news, strategies, ideas and commentary. ”

    A million readers, really?
    Lucky to get 30 comments on articles these days.
    Yeah, going off topic a bit, I know. The new font is easier to read but wtf has happened here…we all traded some worthwhile ideas and strategies back and forth.
    But now it’s a ‘breaking news’ website….it’s just not what the name implies anymore.

    • Infidel says:

      “Vote: Click here to vote for SHTF Plan as a Top Prepper Web Site”

      KoD, I’m sure that’s a joke. This isn’t even a prepper site at all.

      Kinda like “vote for Tofu as the best meat”.

      • Ketchupondemand says:

        got that right, infidel.
        Reminds me of a Halloween party we went to years ago, like ’02 or ’03…I went in mil. fatigues and had “Infidel” on my pocket where my name should have been.
        And not one person there Got It…it was like,” huh? what’s that mean?”

    • 845 reads. 14 comments. Does anyone actually believe there are 831 lurkers? No, it’s the same people coming back over and over because they lead sad, empty lives and have nothing better to do.

      • rellik says:

        JRS,
        Agreed, there are undoubtedly there are a lot of re-visits. For example I wanted to see if Genius posted a “shine” recipe that I requested. He did. So that undoubtedly bumped up the visit count. I usually post while listening to morning talk radio. I’m retired, so I work on a different clock, I’m not constrained to a specific 12 hours a day I must be at someones beck and call. I have twenty four hours a day to do as I darn well please. I suspect many on this site are like me and have more time to lead “sad empty lives”, my to-do list has about 100 items on it,
        with priorities. I only have two priorities; #1 Emergency stuff, that must be done now or ASAP, #2 stuff, I do when I feel like it and get around to it. It keeps life simple.
        Aloha.
        .

        • I apologize. I meant nothing personal. No need to explain to me how you live your “sad, empty life”. I am also retired and visit here way too much myself.

          auf wiedersehen

          • Genius says:

            I only work about 5-6 months a year and have a lot of free time. When I work I am out of town and am bored as hell so I just have a few beers and post here. When I’m not working and home I post a lot here because the weather is shitty and I have nothin better to do. If I am at the cabin I have no internet so I disappear for a while. Theres only so much shit to do in a day, it doesn;t mean I have a sad or empty life, quite the opposite, I am a human BEING not a human DOING lol. 😛

    • rellik says:

      Ketch,
      You have a good point.
      However this site could be a Brietbart where your comment gets lost in the thousands of other comments, or be a Free Republic where comments stand out because they are fewer, but where a small of Cabal of moderators bans you forever for some comment that you have made, they find offensive, and you get no warning of what the problem is and you are never forgiven. BTW SHTFplan posts get re-posted on Free Republic quite often.
      More likely we commenters hijack the subject. For example Genius gave us a recipe for a fruit “shine” today. It came in a round about way from my comment about inflation, and he knows I’m in Hawaii and grow pineapples. Regulars here know about your problems in Puerto Rico and how you dealt with a real SHTF event. Did you ever recover your lost word document about your experience? If so how did you do it?
      Hope you stick around as you have good info and insights.
      Aloha.

      • Ketchupondemand says:

        no, rellik, I didn’t have any luck and was not willing to pay $ to recover it. I tried the link you suggested and it appeared to be free but isn’t.
        If I have time I will try to re-write the important points.
        It’s be so much easier if I could just find one of the posts thru the search feature here…

  8. Bert says:

    [Insert any past, current or future American President name here] has only good for Israel and the world corporations and no one else.

  9. Name says:

    At the end of the day, it’s all just made up paper money. Monopoly money. The Goldman knows this. So does the Silver Stein. They use fake money to buy real assets and real estate. They are usury specialists and experts; super swindlers. Skilled at the art of ripping you off. It works until it doesn’t. The usury (interest) of the public debt to pay back Mr Goldman and Mr Siverstein require your great grandchildren to owe them money. The USA needs to pull out of this slavery.

  10. Anonymous says:

    So this Mark Riddell swears he never bribed anyone to take SAT’s while simultaneously owning up to being a rat bastid.
    What does that mean? Could it be our top rated universities dont require identity verification for entrance exams?
    Sound familiar? Like not requiring voter i.d.?
    And now you know how at least half if not more of these gubment slugs got their job.

  11. Anonymous says:

    Oxford town around the bend …I went down there and they let me in…all because of the color of my skin. Whudda you think about that my friend?

  12. Beowulf says:

    OT, Does anyone here know if that 5 yr old boy thrown off the balcony at Mall of America is white? Google won’t tell me. If he is there had better be hate crime charges.

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