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Economist Who Called The Last Bubble: “We’re Already In A Recession”

Mac Slavo
June 28th, 2019
SHTFplan.com
Comments (12)

Economist Gary Shilling, who is known for predicting bubbles like the housing debacle of 2008, says the United States is already in a recession.  Knowing just how financially strapped the average American has become is prompting some to say the recession is already upon us, regardless of what the stock market shows.

Shilling says this current recession a big worry for investors in an interview with digital financial media group Real Vision, according to a report by Market WatchI think we’re probably already in a recession, but I think [it will] probably be a run of the mill affair, which means real GDP would decline 1.5% to 2%, not to 3.5% to 4%, you had in the very serious [past] recessions,” said Shilling, who is the president and money manager  of A. Gary Shilling & Co. He claims to have predicted the global inventory glut that led to the 1973 to 1975 U.S. downturn.

Shilling says some of the biggest potential drivers for an economic pullback (heavy amounts of corporate debt, a strong dollar that’s pinching emerging markets, and trade wars) are fairly small potatoes versus the problems of the past. However, he is predicting that the 10-year Treasury yield will drop to 1% if that type of recession is borne out along with lower inflation.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond would drop to 2%. “Actually, if that happens on a 30-year coupon bond, you make about 20% on your money,” he said. Shilling is referring to 30-year zero coupon Treasurys, reported Market Watch. Investors can buy these type of bonds at a discount, but redeem them at face value in the future, allowing for a profit. They work well in low-interest rate environments but are less good in rising ones. Hence the risk.

Whether or not the economy is already in a recession can be up for debate.  What isn’t debatable is that things will still get worse.  Americans are living their financial lives right on the edge and any hiccup could send them in a downward spiral that’s completely out of control.

Our concern here, at SHTFPlan, are the everyday people, not the bigwig investors and billionaires. A recession will hurt those on the bottom disproportionately more than those on the top.  If you haven’t gotten your own finances under control, now is the time. Consider subscribing to James Davis’ wealth emails by going to Future Money Trends Davis updates readers with ideas on how to maintain and grow your personal wealth even during economic disasters.

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Author: Mac Slavo
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Date: June 28th, 2019
Website: www.SHTFplan.com

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12 Comments...

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Domino’s about to fall? One goes over and all fall down.
    House of cards. One pulled and all go down.
    Fake FED Fake money. TRILLIONs of USA debt printed on worthless paper. US currency and most currency is worthless paper. Promisary note.

    Buy gold-silver-food-medical items-ammo-tools-knowledge. While you can still trade worthless paper for hard goods.

    Get in top physical condition. Being able to run hide fight flee gives you options when the storms come. No matter your age. Be in the best physical condition that you can be in. Walk Run Bike Swim Garden Walk a dog Walk a goat, get off your ass.
    Give yourself options.

  2. Clown World says:

    “I think we’re probably already in a recession, but I think [it will] probably be a run of the mill affair…”

    I think, this description is not very mathematical.

    • durangokidd says:

      Someone here told this community last Fall that the Recession would start after the first of the year, likely after the Christmas Sales and would be of a short duration. Meaning a year to 18 months. Who was that Masked Man ???

      Yeah, it’s in the Archives. 🙂

  3. Stuart says:

    Shilling’s a pretty smart guy but he has been predicting Deflation since 2000 at least. He’s been wrong so far.

    • Clown World says:

      Would you like to give a round figure of 20yrs, then?

      I need to take some time off from this place, for autistic math fun…

    • durangokidd says:

      The Recession will be DEFLATIONARY in character when it arrives as dollars dry up in the economy as it slows down, as I have mentioned here many times. That is happening now and dollars are being “destroyed” every day as I have described to this community before.

      There are already global dollar “shortages” and the leveraged to the hilt Chinese companies with declining revenues must repay their corporate loans with King Dollar.

      The TRUMP TARIFFS are the key to everything with respect to intensity and duration because China must capitulate and reach a Trade Agreement (which promises they will never keep) or watch their economy collapse upon itself like the House of Cards that it is.

      So expect some sort of measured capitulation and Agreement next Fall/Winter which terms the Chinese will not keep. 🙁

  4. Yahooie says:

    I can believe we are on the verge of recession or recessionary leanings. I’ve noticed at stores when selecting my items that where there used to be 5 or 10 now there are 2-3 or even a space sometimes covered by adjoining products so consumers don’t notice. Store shelves looked like that just before the 2008 crash.

    Smaller shops don’t carry everything they used to but are happy to order it for you; they might even be moving to smaller nearby spaces to disguise the smaller quantities of items available.

    It seems like we never fully recovered from the 2008 downturn. Things that used to be just everywhere are more difficult or impossible to find unless you order it from a trusted shop-owner or online. I personally dislike online shopping for things especially “unmentionables” because if it doesn’t suit you in some way, then you have to go stand in line at the post office and I have better things to do with my time than stand in yet another line. I was okay with ordering books online (not that I do it much) because the items were dropped at your doorstep but then Amazon decided that they deliver to your postal service and they jam it into my pigeonhole thereby ruining my art books. G-r-r-r…… (And my pigeonhole mailbox is down the street; not on my house. So much fun to go get mail in the rain…)

    Back in the day when department stores like Sears (Wards and others) had their giant catalogs, it was fun to look through their merchandise. It was very hard to determine quality so there were times when it meant a trip to the local Sears catalog department counter to return an item that wasn’t what you thought it would be like. Lines were short back then but it still interrupted your schedule for the trip downtown. When our Sears store expanded, we were pretty happy to be able to see more merchandise before purchasing. Now the current trend is to go back to essentially catalog shopping??? I must be getting old.

    • Archivist says:

      Don’t go get your mail until the rain stops.

      We don’t take our returns to the post office. We put them on the mailbox for the mailman to pick up.

      I’ve had no problem order underwear online. I know my size, and that’s what comes. I do know that women’s clothing sizes make no sense. I can order anything for myself, and it always fits. The pants are so many inches long and so many inches in the waist, period. I only wear short sleeve shirts, so the neck size is a good enough measure.

      Get a smaller mailbox, and the mailman will have to bring your packages to your front porch. That’s one thing that upsets our mailman. People order cases of canned dog food, and he has to lug them all the way up to the front porch. Where I live, that’s a long ways at some houses. One time, years ago, I made a “special prep order,” and the mail woman drove the truck around to the back of the house and came to my back door. That was nice of her.

  5. Bert says:

    Use the American adult weight and size as your economic chart.

    There has never been a more greater time of over abundance in the history of mankind.

    The best thing the banks could do right now is to tighten up the money supply, end entitlements, until the average American adult is no longer overweight.

    There is so much free money that goes to people that don’t produce anything. Look at them, literally millions of 250+lb, 22 year old “woman” with five children, each one a different shade of color, no male in sight [except the drunken unemployable bums that fuck her every night] she hasn’t done anything in life except steal from the working taxpayer.

    No recession, no collapse… just more MORE MORE!!! free carbohydrates for the hundreds of millions of American flubbers.

    No one is starving in the United States that knows where their welfare offices are. And $free$monthly$everything$ is never enough for these parasites. DEMS talking vote for me and 5 trillion will get pissed away on you ‘American-land-whales” each year, and all you have to do is sign up and your set for life.

    • Bert says:

      Reality “The American Glutton”, and yet you think the economy is bad and will recession???? Has there been any talks of even just slowing the government budget growth rate? NO.

      Reminds me of when the Germans discovered they were going to lose the war as the Americans were doing so great that cake was delivered to soldiers at the front while the Germans didn’t even have oil and fuel for their tanks.

  6. Bilge Pump McCoy says:

    Millions of baby boomers are retiring every year and that is going to squeeze corporate profits even more. And with Elizabeth Warren and other communist vermin pandering to the “gimmie free shit” crowd with promises of income distribution, I foresee even more spending cuts as normal people throw up their hands, take early retirement, and refuse to be fleeced by these anti-American scum. Fortunately, some of the lost spending will be offset by millennials who will be purchasing marijuana, video games, sexbots, and mental health services. Yup – the times they are a changing. And not for the better.

  7. Old Guy says:

    Bert has a valid point. look at the porkers. I want a Depression to reverse inflation and be so harsh the fat lardy parasites get so skinny the skin hangs all wrinkled from their carcass.