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Bank of America: 1 In 3 Chance Of A Recession In The Next 12 Months

Mac Slavo
August 13th, 2019
SHTFplan.com
Comments (11) Read by 723 people

In the next year, the chance of an economic recession is now 1 in 3, according to the Bank of America. That’s more than a 30% chance based on the recent data.

According to CNBC, there is a bit of good news. The head of United States economics at the Bank of America, Michelle Meyer says the “bright spot” of the economy is that initial jobless claims remain at low levels. “Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20%, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance,” Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer said in a note to clients Friday.

Even though last month’s jobs report showed a strong number, business investment is low as investors and business owners are being forced to juggle new tariffs and fiscal policy uncertainty. As some analysts say that businesses are about to notice the effects of the trade war, others have already been suffering under the weight of added costs. Uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade war and a global economic slowdown have caused interest rates to tumble and weighed on the major stock averages in recent weeks.

Alongside this “policy ping pong,” Meyer said some economic indicators are “flashing yellow,” signaling a coming recession.

For one, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below the yield on the 3-month, inverting part of the yield curve. This inversion, although a recession indicator, is not as worrisome as an inversion of the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, which has yet to occur. –CNBC

Meyer also clearly stated that three of five economic indicators that track business cycles — auto sales, industrial production and aggregate hours worked — are at levels reached right before previous recessions.

Of course, then there is this:

Economist Who Called The Last Bubble: “We’re Already In A Recession”

 

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Author: Mac Slavo
Views: Read by 723 people
Date: August 13th, 2019
Website: www.SHTFplan.com

Copyright Information: Copyright SHTFplan and Mac Slavo. This content may be freely reproduced in full or in part in digital form with full attribution to the author and a link to www.shtfplan.com. Please contact us for permission to reproduce this content in other media formats.

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11 Comments...

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  1. Can anyone explain to me why I need to refresh (F5) this site every time I visit to see new content?

    Also happens on the articles- cannot see new comments until the page is refreshed.

    Been going on for a few weeks. I was starting to think the site died off before I F5’d and realised… it wasnt displaying new content.

    This should be of major concern to Mac and any other owner/operator of SHTFplan.

    • Genius says:

      You would think huh. Maybe this site is run by fedbots?

    • grandee says:

      yep. having the same problem, still. been goin’ on for about three wks now.

    • neutrino says:

      I personally believe that it’s because the tech companies are working overtime to make sure that information isn’t disseminated quickly, if at all.

      This is the tip of the iceburg. If you’ve been tracking the major search engines, you’ll also note that the average educational level necessary to understand the returns on searches is dropping off.

      It’s all intentional. Leave people dumb so they can be more easily manipulated.

  2. NEC—I had/have that problem for a few days.
    I still use windows 7 and installed firefox to get better results.
    Well, the firefox window is the one not updating articles. I used the old windows 7 window that isn’t firefox and get the newly posted articles.

  3. — NEC_Wrangler
    says:
    Comment ID: 4008232

    August 13, 2019 at 12:45 pm

    Can anyone explain to me why I need to refresh (F5) this site every time I visit to see new content?

    Also happens on the articles- cannot see new comments until the page is refreshed.

    Been going on for a few weeks. I was starting to think the site died off before I F5’d and realised… it wasnt displaying new content.

    This should be of major concern to Mac and any other owner/operator of SHTFplan.
    ***********************************************************************************************

    I have a windows 7 window and a firefox window and use the firefox, but it is still windows 7. I can’t get updates on firefox(the one I use for less hassle) and do get latest posts on other older window.
    I haven’t been able to comment for weeks now–it just disappears and is never posted; this is why you have very few views and comments.
    NO one alerted you?? I now know it’s not just my pc….by wrangler’s comment.

  4. Old Guy says:

    Im not worried about any recession. I want a full blown bone slaking depression. I want it to be so bad inflation is reversed.

  5. rellik says:

    I just checked Tbill rates vs >10 year composite bonds rate. This is from the secondary market. A 4 week Tbill pays better than the LT Tbond composite. That signals a recession if it keeps up. Short term, you gold guys may make some money,
    if you cash out.
    From a political point of view there will be a recession before the next election, in an attempt to topple Trump and install some Socialist nutcase as president.
    Paraphrased, “Most Democrats will vote for a glass of water as long as there is a “D” next to it.” N. Pelosi 2019. Most everybody else votes with their wallets. Recessions although not really something a President can prevent or fix, gets blamed on the President.

  6. Genius says:

    relik, have you been in the Maui wowie again? Sell my metals? My prediction for 17 silver in 2 months happened that same week. We’ll see if my 30 prediction in a year happens sooner too! Metals have made a base price, it is up from here. I predict it will be in the 20’s in 6 months…

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