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False Flag or Conflict With Russia On the Way? Top “Conflict Risks” For CFR Elite in 2017

Tyler Durden
December 14th, 2016
Zero Hedge
Comments (59)

cyber-attack

This article was written by Tyler Durden and originally published at Zero Hedge.

Editor’s Comment: The hints are strong enough – that another major false flag attack could be on its way. It is a new regime, a new era of government. The people have been angry, revolting and trying to buck the system.

The system may well respond with another inoculation of fear – a big event to get the Trump supporters back on board with the use of power, the climate of fear and the perpetuation of total war. It worked on 9/11, and enough has happened in the meantime that it might be significant again, significant in the way of actually affecting people’s lives and their thinking. What type of attack may not matter, but the current emphasis on hacking, ‘fake news’ and espionage could make a major cyber attack or EMP detonation all the more likely and relevant, though a physical attack is more likely to make headlines and a lasting, psychological impression.

Regardless, whether there is all out conflict or not, what can be assured is that the establishment are looking to reestablish their power base after an embarrassing season of mainstream media’s waning influence and out-of-touch attempts at controlling the narrative.

NATO-Russia War Seen As Top “Conflict” Risk For 2017 By CFR

by Tyler Durden

The Council on Foreign Relations yesterday released its annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which evaluates ongoing and potential conflict flashpoints based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests.

A NATO-Russia confrontation has been deemed a top risk by by the CFR survey, conducted by foreign policy experts. This placed it alongside the risk of a nuclear crisis with North Korea, a highly disruptive cyberattack, and a severe terrorist attack on the US among the events with the highest impact on the US.

The likelihoods for the biggest potential conflicts coming true were split into two groups – those with a moderate likelihood of happening, but causing a high impact; and those with a high likelihood of happening, but causing a moderate impact.

Unlike prior years, in 2017 no scenario was deemed both highly likely and highly impactful to U.S. interests, a change from last year when an intensification of Syria’s civil war was considered the most urgent threat. Respondents still considered a worsening of Syria’s civil war to be highly likely in 2017, but downgraded its impact on U.S. interests from high to moderate.

The survey identified the following seven “top tier” conflicts in 2017:

Impact: High; Likelihood: Moderate

  1. deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and NATO members, stemming from assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe
  2. severe crisis in North Korea caused by nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) weapons testing, a military provocation, or internal political instability
  3. highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
  4. mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally by either a foreign or homegrown terrorist(s).

Among the less impactful risks, the CFR noted the following:

Impact: Moderate; Likelihood: High

  1. increased violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from a continued strengthening of the Taliban insurgency and potential government collapse
  2. the intensification of violence between Turkey and various Kurdish armed groups within Turkey and in neighboring countries
  3. the intensification of the civil war in Syria resulting from increased external support for warring parties, including military intervention by outside powers

Four conflicts were downgraded to lesser priorities in 2017. These include political instability in European Union countries stemming from the refugee crisis, the fracturing of Iraq caused by sectarian violence and the Islamic State, increased tensions between Israelis and Palestinians, and the political breakup of Libya.

The CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA), which
conducted the survey, believes that if any escalation – intended or
accidental – takes place alongside Russia-NATO borders, it will stem
“from assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe”, avoiding the Russian version of things according to which it would be a provocation by Baltic NATO members, whether it be renewed force
buildups or mass-scale military exercises.

The potentiality of a North Korea crisis is thought to be exacerbated by an escalation in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing by Pyongyang, as well as a risk of internal conflict. Alongside Russia and North Korea, in the moderately-likely-but-highly-impactful category, the experts placed a mass-casualty terrorist attack on the United States or an ally (by both foreign and domestic terrorists) and a crippling cyberattack.

Four conflicts were downgraded to lesser priorities in 2017. These include political instability in European Union countries stemming from the refugee crisis, the fracturing of Iraq caused by sectarian violence and the Islamic State, increased tensions between Israelis and Palestinians, and the political breakup of Libya. However, the same could not be said for risks associated with ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, where the Taliban insurgents now control a third of the country; and the Turkish-Kurdish fight, which continues to be a cross-border conflict. Both possibilities have been projected to have a moderate impact on US interests, yet almost certainly likely to take place.

The biggest wildcard, however, remains Trump, and how he will respond to rising geopolitical crises: “With a new presidential administration assuming office, it is important to help policymakers anticipate and avert potential crises that could arise and threaten U.S. interests. Our annual survey aims to highlight the most likely sources of instability and conflict around the world so that the government can prioritize its efforts appropriately,” said Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and CPA director.

This article was written by Tyler Durden and originally published at Zero Hedge.

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Author: Tyler Durden
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Date: December 14th, 2016
Website: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-14/nato-russia-war-seen-top-conflict-risk-2017-cfr

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59 Comments...

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  1. SAY WHAT says:

    CFR Council Of Foreign Relations – Jewish Control Of Media

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN-dtMVvpeU

  2. Kevin2 says:

    “assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe”

    How dare the Russians locate their country in the center of our military bases.

  3. Houston/Cypress/katy/Shtf says:

    ALERT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jud9naaIAYU&feature=youtu.be

    Mac, please post this link and make it and article.

    THE SHIT JUST HIT THE FAN OR ABOUT TO HIT IT.

    HCKS.

  4. SAY WHAT says:

    Council on Foreign Relations – The Power Behind Big News

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcA76lcXtwU

  5. Kevin2 says:

    Among the less impactful risks, the CFR noted the following:

    (3) the intensification of the civil war in Syria resulting from increased external support for warring parties, including military intervention by outside powers

    Hmmm, I wonder who is supplying ISIS / AQ and other Islamic Crazies fighting the Syrian government. Its not Russia, nor Syria, nor Iran so who is left over but the US and its allies. What is the issue with ISIS / AQ and Assad? Is it that they don’t like his secular government with its 10% Christian population or is it a mercenary action? Certainly the rebel cannon fodder isn’t at all interested in the Saudi / Qatar Natural Gas Pipeline through Syria to Europe that Assad has not allowed. Apparently their issue is to spread Islamic Fundamentalism in the mold of Saudi Arabia and their supporters (use the process of elimination in the first paragraph to decide who they are) have no problem with that.

    Insanity

  6. anon says:

    A Nuclear War might be the best thing for mankind.

    Tired of the B.S.

    • “A Nuclear War might be the best thing for mankind.”

      I completely, and kindly disagree with that statement.
      I Understand how you feel … but don’t give up that easily on mankind.

      It’s only a small percentage of those undesirables that reigns power over us that needs to be dealt with.

      • Kevin2 says:

        “A Nuclear War might be the best thing for mankind.”

        The above statement is nuts.

        I like living. I ate well today, too well. Plan on doing it again tomorrow. I live better than my father did and he better than his. My concern is that it comes to an end.

        • anon says:

          Kevin2

          Why would you consider it nuts. The world is a shithole.
          Run by a select few. Have Billions of followers that are as dumb as a box of rocks. Then all we do day after day is complain and complain and complain and very little gets done. The problems compile on top of each other and we let them make laws with impunity that screw our lives up. Has any of the articles that we so completely discussed even get fixed? Everyone has a cause to fight for or a banner to wave and most of them conflict with each other. A nuclear exchange would bring it all down to one major concern. To survive. One BIG FLASH and It’s the Real Thing.

          Yea, its the younger generations or the older generations fault. The Democrats or the Republicans. The whitey’s or the Blacks. Russians or the Chinese.

          I’m wishing Hillary had won.

          • Kevin2 says:

            anon

            “Why would you consider it nuts. The world is a shithole.”

            GTFOOH

            The entire world is a shit hole? You have never been in a shit hole. I don’t want to be faced with the aftermath of war; fear, disease, starvation, thirst, hell I hate the power being off for an hour in summer and the AC being down. I live real good as my father, kids, grandchild, cousins, (no Aunts or Uncles alive but they lived into their 80s), friends and even associates.

        • Genius says:

          “A Nuclear War might be the best thing for mankind.”

          I understand what your saying but I disagree. Nuke war would destroy the gem known as earth. I wouldn’t complain if they started a non nuke war and drafted all the imbiciles and communists and got rid of ALL of them! Mankind has proven throughout history to be irresponsible, stupid, easily duped, mindlessly consuming, overpopulating, destructors of there environment. Gotta end sometime I just hope they don’t take out the earth with them.

          • Buffalolips says:

            Genius, I appreciate your candor and sincerity. I would suggest that the “gem known as earth” has already been destroyed, for the most part incrementally, but most recently by Fuckishima (intentional spelling). Soon most people will come to realize that, like a hemophiliac, the bleeding brought to the world’s doorstep cannot be stopped and mankind’s food supply has been irreversibly mitigated. The Pacific Ocean is almost totally a dead zone already. Enjoy the time that remains.

          • anon says:

            Genius

            Human beings have to be either beaten into submission or have them frighten to the point they are scared for their lives. The cost to prevent bad behavior must be high to deter. Being nice to people does not last as long.

            That is why when we have a major war that consumes the populace of many nations, that afterwards there are years between the next WORLD WAR. Not A Conflict or Police Action.

            As an small example. Hillary and Bill will never be prosecuted. Their daughter Chelsea won’t be prosecuted either. Even if they go to jail, they get fed, medical and secluded from the regular prison population.
            Do you think when they get out of jail they would not do it again?
            What a lifestyle they had and would do anything to get it back.

            • Genius says:

              The cost of bad behavior to that degree must be a horrible death. Why do responsible honest people need a government at all? Those who are not should be dealt a dirt nap…

              • anon says:

                Genius

                If the penalty for killing a person was abolished.

                What would the murder rate climb?

                High enough deterrence for some but not all.

                • Genius says:

                  It would climb very high. Many people need to die because they make life miserable for the responsible ones. Live and let live… unless you try and force your wishes on others. I have a question for you… what do you define as freedom?

                • anon says:

                  Genius

                  Freedom is being responsible. Many believe it is being able to do and say as you please no matter what. Yes to an extent. When people infringe on other people’s rights and freedom, then their freedom stops there.
                  Freedom is also the ability to take advantage of any opportunity. Education or a job. Freedom is being able to hire or fired a person.
                  But our Freedom is different. We have a written document that secures our freedom. Spells out our Rights.
                  The problem is that it allows practices to co exist with our nations founding principles that are not conducive to the welfare of the nation
                  Satanism and it practice. Islam and its practices. Communism. Nazism. All allowed to be here.
                  Then there are those that push the limits of our rights by testing the Supreme Court to rule on matters that stretch the interpretation of the Constitution. We will always be in danger of losing our Freedom.
                  They will have so many rulings that it will in the end contradict itself. Then they will say, What does it matter anymore. It’s outdated. Get rid of it.
                  What kind of freedom will we have then?

                • Genius says:

                  anon, good answer!

            • The Russian says:

              @ anon:

              So just because you wish to jump off the cliff, you want everyone else to take a dive with you too?

              The fallacy you present in your argument is monumental! The so-called “Elites” have been here for hundreds of years. These are bloodlines. Guess who will survive the Nuclear War? Well, the “Elites” of course! Not you or me or any other average person on this planet. I would go as far as even saying that “The Elites” would also have a hard time surviving given the radiation, drastic climate change and outright annihilation.

              Man, you need to have a serious evaluation done by psychiatrist if think a nuclear war would be a solution.

      • Neal Jensen says:

        The problem is not just the maniacial rulers, but their devoted psychophants as well….a well OVERDUE culling and skimming of the worst scum off the human gene pool is SORELY needed, humanity has no chance, but a nuke war is the great equalizer that would get the job done and by INDISCRIMINATE about getting the job done right.

  7. Stolz:

    I understand where you are coming from. But give yourself a break and chill a little. In the real world, one has to play the man or get played. Trump is a schrewed businessman. I can see the logic in many of the seemingly off the course choices .

    Listen to David Dukes show today. He said some things about Trump’s strategy. All of us are merely speculating. Just wait and see. I think Trump is commited to America in a way we haven’t seen in my lifetime.

    Trump does not want war. He wants to build up industry, manufacturing, infrastructure, and control foreign entities on American soil.

    He will give just enough to keep negotiations going, but he’s too strong willed to let anyone take advantage.

    __

    • Stolz Vorfahrent says:

      B from CA,

      I was watching the news and was noticing the little kids and many folks in Syria carrying what was left of their belongings in the middle of a war zone. To be honest with you many of these folks were extremely beautiful people who like everyone else want and deserve to have a normal life. The next phase was seeing Russia and Iranian Special forces along with their militia from Lebanon are the only military fighting the ISIS barbarians. To me these are freedom fighters and everyone else supporting these barbarians are the enemy of the humanity. If Trump is going to change the US status by not siding with useless POS like the Turks and Saudi’s and the parasites in Israel as the mother of all corruption on planet earth then God bless him but I’ll wait until I see his actions. Trust is earned as you know and Trump must earn it.

  8. If TRUMP doesn’t put the banksters in prison, then there is no hope.!!!!

  9. “Trump does not want war”

    I believe Trump is very sincere about not wanting anymore Wars.

    I’m not worried about Trump – I’m concerned about the Power Structure that is above him that wants to continue war(s) or not.

    Trump this … Trump that … it’s a moot point and irrelevant when there is a higher power structure calling the shots in the world.

  10. Lone wolverine says:

    I guess that everyone that builds the planes,tanks bombs, aircraft carriers, subs, artillery, jeeps ,uniforms , machine guns,bullets, ect. Wants war ? Or there in the unemployment line? I wonder how many people get layed off if we stop war? People in the steel making industry alone . And the grave diggers.and shovel makers. It’s a trickle down thing?

  11. What says Ron Ahrens, et. al.?

    We are of the exact mindset.

  12. citizen says:

    to even wish for a nuke war is insane! I don’t care so much for me, but my grandkids deserve a chance. no one wins a nuke conflict but satan.

    • Genius says:

      That’s what happens when your an ignorant breeder with no concern but your own selfish wants. Did you ever THINK about what the future looked like when having kids? If they have a shitty future you can blame yourself! THINK about it if you have the capacity….

      • Genius says:

        That may sound kinda cruel but I am fookin sick and tired of idiots bitching about what their kids will have to endure when they are too ignorant to think of the kids future they selfishly want to poop out to fulfill theyre desires. Especially when they don’t do a fookin’ thing to make a FUTURE for them. Damn I’m glad I was smart enough to not have kids…. Those of you with kids need only look in the mirror to see who’s responsible for their suffering.

        • Genius says:

          That may sound kinda cruel but I am fookin sick and tired of idiots beeching about what their kids will have to endure when they are too ignorant to think of the kids future they selfishly want to poop out to fulfill theyre desires. Especially when they don’t do a fookin’ thing to make a FUTURE for them. Damn I’m glad I was smart enough to not have kids…. Those of you with kids need only look in the mirror to see who’s responsible for their suffering.

          I guess the word beech gets moderated grrrrr..

  13. Lone wolverine says:

    I think they have to do something to cover up the Fukashima radiation on the west coast. Otherwise they will get sued to the max. And they are the owners and major stockholders of nuclear energy. A dirty bomb , multiple dirty bombs up and down the coast would be blamed for the sickness and death from Fukashima ? Or N Korea nuke or China we owe them trillions then we could wipe them out and kill two birds with one stone? I read that the Phillipines has some unbelievable amount of mineral deposits. So we will probably be there one way or another? I wonder if the TPT has something to do with that?

  14. Sarge says:

    The battle for America isn’t over yet. The mad, insane demon-possessed globalists are going to pull out every trick in the book and then write new books with new tricks.

    The welfare warfare deep state made up of globalists on both sides of the isle got slapped down by The People, are not taking the results of this election very well, and are not letting go of power without a fight.

    Their demonization of Russia continues in order to convince the world into WWIII, Russia being blamed by the globalist war instigators for interfering with America’s elections, being responsible for Brexit, and now guilty of brainwashing other Europeans to vote for their countries to exit the EU.

    Enough Americans woke up in November, and now this secret shadow gvmnt is shocked, angry, and still groping to find a way to smack down The People. They are still trying to hide in the putrid swamp, but they are being taken down, and they know it.

    Expect them to continue with their wicked plans against Humanity, but ultimately they, too, answer to a Higher Power, whether they like it or not. It will NOT end well for them.

  15. Genius says:

    “The welfare warfare deep state made up of globalists on both sides of the isle got slapped down by The People, are not taking the results of this election very well, and are not letting go of power without a fight.”

    ARE YOU KIDDING ME? They are in total control of both sides and are in power as much as ever! Everything is going according to the grand plan! Learn how to play chess, it might enlighten you….

  16. Anonymous says:

    Climate? I’ll repeat: Coldest temp EVER recorded was announced a couple years ago:

    SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – … Scientists made the discovery while analyzing 32 years of global surface temperatures recorded by satellites. They found that a high ridge in the East Antarctic Plateau contains pockets of trapped air that dipped as low as minus 136 Fahrenheit on August 10, 2010, researchers said at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. The previous record low was minus 128.6 F (minus 89.2 C), set in 1983 at the Russian Vostok Research Station in East Antarctica, said Ted Scambos, lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
    http://news.yahoo.com/record-low-temperature-recorded-antarctica-scientists-020644993.html
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/12/10/antarctica-cold-record/3950019/
    http://www.slashgear.com/antarctica-sets-record-for-lowest-temperature-ever-recorded-on-earth-10308245/
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/09/coldest-ever-temperature-recorded-on-earth-found-in-antarctica/ (this site is highly recommended)
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cold-dis-comfort-antarctica-set-record-1358

    Oh yes. Antarctic ice is also at all-time record highs, while Arctic ice is up ~ 60% this year (I wrote this a couple years ago, but it is still gaining), the US has seen the fewest major hurricanes in many, many decades, and in the US there were the fewest 100 degree days overall throughout the country in **century** this past summer. Poor Al Gore. All those trillions of dollars – many diverted to his personal coffers – may dry up. On the other hand, it appears Obama’s promise to stop the seas from rising is, like all his other Dear Leader magic, working like a charm! Details at http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/mildest-summer-in-a-century-in-the-us/ or http://www.dailybrisk.com/2013/08/2013-fewest-100-degree-days-in-century.html

    But my all time fav is from Dr. Tim Ball (just google “Dr. Tim Ball picea glauca” for link)

    Picea glauca (white spruce) stump on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula in tundra,some 100km north of the current treeline that was growing there some 4,900 years ago. Photo by Professor Ritchie (University of Toronto). Radiocarbon date was 4940 ±140 years Before Present (BP), and was featured in Hubert Lamb’s classic work Climate, Present, Past and Future. Note that the Archeological Survey of Canada says the treeline was 100 km north of today’s position during the Medieval Climatic Optimum. Hey, the lamestream media ain’t gonna tell you this!

  17. Lone wolverine says:

    Speaking of chess. Ever read about what Bobbie Fisher said about the ((( tribe ))) ?

  18. eagle1 says:

    Putin has clearly stated Russia will remian Russia. No NWO in Russia. If any country knows what Marixts Jews (CFR) can do I imagine it would be Russia. Deaths under communissiam makes Hilter’s germany look like Disney land!
    Now at the Baltic sea is Lativia who just gained its independence in 1990. South is Poland. Both have US Troops. Southeast of Poland is Ukraine where Clinton, Bidon, McShame and Lindsey have dirty hands. South of the Black sea is Turkey Syria andthen Iraq!
    Essentially US and Nato have put the squeeze on Russia trying to force Putin to join Globalization also the goal of Marxist Manifesto!
    Please note that to the west of the aforementioned countries is Western Europe like Germany and France whohave been invaded (invited) a hostile takeover!
    So Russia to the south borders Muslimcountries and now to the west is facing islam. I bet they can’t believe it!
    Muzzies in London calling for caliphate! The Marxists are truly crazies!

  19. Patriec krievu says:

    Whatever you think, Russia IS and always was messing with all its neighboring countries. All the small nations just want to be let alone, but no – Russia will find a reason to phukk’em up.
    Based on that, it’s no wonder the local populations support NATO presence on their territory, just to feel safer against any move by Russia.

  20. Frank Thoughts says:

    I, for one, actually look forward to the implementation of the draft for the war with Russia. We have never had such a whiny, bitch-ass generation of youth before: fat, lazy, dumb.

    The problem for the West is clear: while Russia, China and North Korea have been preparing for this confrontation for decades (underground bunkers and cities etc.: 99% of the North Korean population can disappear underground within minutes and fight from there), the West has no such preparations. The West is completely counting on military supremacy to win the day. But for that to work, the West has no room for error and has to get it right in one blitz attack. If that does not go to plan, then the war that follows will play to all the West’s weaknesses: unprepared and weak population, unrest in its cities, no stomach for high casualty conflict, etc.

    The Russians will be laughing in this future war and noting: “While in WW1 the West was lions led by donkeys; today’s NATO is transgender/ghetto junk/Mooslimes/LGBT led by paedos”