 |
 |
Web Design and Content Copyright 2007 - 2011 SHTF Plan - When It Hits The Fan, Don't Say We Didn't Warn You - All Rights Reserved
The content on this site is provided as general information only. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a financial interest in any company or advertiser referenced. Any action taken as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately the responsibility of the reader.
Wow.
In light of some of the “deflationary” indicators (depending of course on how you define deflation) that I’ve seen lately (for what my observations are worth), $200 oil within the next three years is a bold call.
What’s interesting about guys like Schiff, Mish, and Denninger is that they strongly agree that the what the current administration is doing is the exact opposite of what it should be doing…and yet Schiff is screaming about inflation, while Mish and Denninger are deflationists.
I still think it’s at least partially a matter of semantics.
They also all agree that we are essentially in the eye of the storm right now…with that storm wall approaching rapidly.
On the inflation/deflation debate, I’m still doing the Harvey Dent thing.
Rate This Comment:
0 
0
It is certainly a bold call — but to be honest, i think we will see oil at $200 at some point.
Harry Dent has suggested that we could see oil hit $150 by the end of this year.. how that is to happen during a market crash, which he also forecasted, is a big question (unless you consider an attack on Iran as a possibility).
I really do think we are seeing inflation AND deflation everywhere. Yeah, my gas prices are up a little since January, my energy bills seem higher and insurance isn’t getting any cheaper. But, at the same time, the landlords from who i rent dropped their rent price by 20% when i asked them and committed to an extra 6 months, I just bought a bunch of clothes at 50% off for the kids (and in my opinion it was a ‘real sale’), and I am reading about wage freezes and cuts everywhere. So, it seems to me that in this particular environment of confusion, we have deflation in some places and inflation in others.Â
Insofar as financial markets are concerned, I am in the “crash” camp right now… call it deflation, call it whatever, but this market is going to tank and it is going to take commodities with it.
Now, I don’t know if we are looking at a protracted deflation for several years as Harry Dent has suggested, or, if we may see a very short-term deflation and then a hyperinflation scenario, as Dr. Faber suggested in his recent GBD Report. (http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/marc-faber-the-inflation-deflation-debate-heats-up_08052009)
So, in the short-term, i am speculating on a market crash — but i am not betting the farm on it. Some PUT options in the financial sector and some Inverse ETFs (non-leveraged) to make a small percentage on a down move. and long-term holdings in precious metals funds for the coming inflation, which, in my opinion is inevitable.
But be assured that once this market crashes I am going to move into accumulating assets like agri commodities, more PM’s, geo-thermal stocks and stem cell biotechs (a whole different commentary, but in my opinion, this particular sector will thrive under socialized medicine).
In my opinion, for those who want to avoid the risk of timing a crash, the best thing to do is probably to sit in cash. You are essentially shorting the market in this way by going Long the USD. There are going to be some seriously killer deals, especially in Junior mining stocks, when the financial SHTF this fall or during the winter.
Rate This Comment:
0 
0
Oh, don’t get me wrong – I’m sure that we will see $200 oil at some point. Hell, it could be later this year – I strongly doubt it…but at some point, it seems like it almost has to happen. When? I have no idea…but as I write this, all of a sudden, seeing it within the next three years doesn’t sound that outrageous for some reason.
My coin flipping on the “flation” debate really just pertains to what CPI, etc. will do over the next year or so. I agree that we are seeing pressure from both right now (i.e., the fed is pumping money into the system, but supply/demand and destruction of credit is making prices fall on some, but not all, items).
It will be interesting (one way to put it) to see what the stock market does over the next several months…but I agree that cash is a good thing for the time being.
Rate This Comment:
0 
0