Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers - All Wrong On The Economy
Mike Stathis suggests Peter Schiff: Wrong on the Economy, Wrong on Healthcare , and includes Faber, Rogers and ‘other lackeys’ in his assessment.
So now I’d like to take the opportunity to teach Mr. Schiff and his fellow perpetual doomer colleagues (Faber, Rogers and their lackeys) a few lessons in economics, investment management, and of course healthcare. Let’s begin.
Having worked on Wall Street, Peter should realize this. But all you really need is some common sense. I don’t think Peter is a dumb guy. But when you’re trying to pitch a sales line in order to get more business, the results often make one seem as if they were not too bright.
As the facts show, gold is a hedge against deflation. The misinterpretation often arises when the gold bugs fail to consider that gold provides a short-term safe haven during crises. Inflation happens to be a frequent side effect of these crises.
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Based upon what I have seen and heard, Mr. Schiff doesn’t seem to be particularly good at forecasting market movements. As far as he’s concerned the market is going down, down, down. How many years has Mr. Schiff made these forecasts now? Fifteen?Â
Always remember this. Extremists are never right, and they are often dangerous. You have to know when to change channels, even if it’s for a brief period.
Any reasonably experienced investor knows that the most critical skill required to handle bear markets (or any market for that matter) is the ability to forecast major market movements; up and down.
Author: Mac Slavo
Date: July 19th, 2009
Visit the Author's Website: http://www.SHTFplan.com/
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Again, I freely admit I know nothing about this stuff…
…but this guy offers no analysis whatsoever…he just does what he charges Schiff with - self promotion - as he is plugging his book.
For all I know Schiff is way off on this one. That being said, I still get a kick out of watching the CNBC videos of other “experts” openly laughing at him about his thoughts on the state of the economy a few years ago.
After a quick Google search, the first hit I got was:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o
Perfect example.
I realize that other people may have been saying the same thing at that time, and Schiff may have made other predictions that didn’t pan out…
No, I’m not pumping every penny I have into gold or anything, but for the time being, I think I’ll at least pay attention to what he says…but that’s just me.
As to my personal “rookie” thoughts on the economy - something that I THINK both Schiff and Denninger agree on:Â There is still WAY too much debt in the system (very little has changed in this regard over the last 8 months - other than it being swept under the rug)…debt must be serviced and/or paid down…the only way to keep this possible is to keep interest rates low (artificially)….artificially low rates is what got us into this mess.
The definition of insanity is continuously doing the same thing and expecting different results.
Hyperinflation or not, SOMETHING is still very wrong.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:37 am
agreed Rick… something is wrong. Stathis makes a good point about calling for collapse but not taking appropriate steps to defend oneself when the collapse comes. It is easy to attack guys like Schiff right now, because we are still in the middle of it. How will Schiff’s clients do 3 years from now? who knows, but i suspect much better than clients with investment advisors focused on just domestic buy/hold strategies.
I do believe gold will rise during inflation and deflation, but the key is instability in public sector confidence (i.e. the Treasury, government policies, etc.)…. right now, everyone seems to be happy-go-lucky, but if we happen upon a time in the near future where unemployment goes to 12%, stock markets collapse and bond yields jump (and mortgage rates too), I think people will start realizing that government can’t do what they have been promising insofar as saving the system goes. When this happens, gold will soar.
so, Stathis makes a solid point about inflation and gold prices, in that they do no necessarily have to correlate…. But, when you throw instability of confidence into the mix, that is when gold blows up, whether you have deflation or inflation…
Like you, i am not 100% in gold assets — but I do feel a loss in public confidence in the near future, so holding some money in gold related investments is just a good way to diversify, IMO.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:46 am
I haven’t read the full article but I already see two glaring problems with Stathis’ statements.
“Always remember this. Extremists are never right…”
Oh yeah? So you mean to tell me that there wasn’t one single economist or banker or even politician who was right back in 1929 when they saw the beginnings of the Depression? No one saw it coming? Really? So those extremists who said the market would be down over the next 10 years and wouldn’t fully recover until 1950 something were wrong? Hardly.
Schiff’s statements are in line with history no matter how you spin his words.
I would say most of the time, extremists are never right. But I would refrain from using absolutes, especially if history is any guide.
“…gold provides a short-term safe-haven during crises”. Anyone know how gold has fared vs. the DJIA over the past 10 years? How has gold fared vs the dollar over the past 100? Enough said.
December 5th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Chris, for you to attempt what Stathis has said shows just how stupid you really are. I get what Stathis is saying but you obviously don’t so let me spell it out for you. Schiff and the other doomers are extremists because they have been preaching the same doom lines for years as a way to generate business. And they will preach the same extremist views forever. If you took the time to read Stathis’ book, you will see that no one can touch his record on the collapse. He gave specific forecasts including recommendations to short the bank and mortgage stocks well before the collapse began. Schiff has never made any specific forecasts other than the dollar will go to 0. What a joke!  I suggest you have a look at Stathis’s site http://www.avaresearch.com
June 15th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Stathis was so wrong about Schiff he deleted the article off his website. I guess he didnt want to look like a fool.
“Schiff has never made any specific forecasts other than the dollar will go to 0.”
You lie. Peter Schiff has made numerous predictions since at least 2002 about what we are currently facing. And that prediction above this paragraph is on the money! If you dont think so, put all of your wealth in the US Stock Exchange and Dollars. See what they will get you in a few years.