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Report: There Is No Sign Of Recession: “Strong Consumer Spending Underscores The Economy’s Underlying Strength”

Mac Slavo
March 28th, 2016
SHTFplan.com
Comments (70)
Read by 7,246 people

party-1929

For those who think the U.S. economy is going under, a report from Reuters suggests you’re just peddling fiction.

According to official data there is nothing to worry about. We are not only not in recession, but the economy is fundamentally strong and only getting stronger.

Relatively strong consumer spending underscores the economy’s underlying strength and should further allay fears of a recession, which triggered a massive stock market sell-off early this year.

The consumer is back in the driver’s seat. There is no sign of recession in these data so this will put a smile on Fed officials’ faces and argues for their policy of gradual interest rate normalization to continue,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

GDP growth was initially estimated to have risen at only a 0.7 percent rate. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the third quarter and expanded 2.4 percent for all of 2015.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.4 percent pace and not the 2.0 percent rate reported last month. More consumption of services than previously estimated accounted for the revision.

Though at first glance this report may sound convincing, as is normally the case with official data and the mainstream propaganda that follows, some key points have been ignored.

First, while the economy officially grew at a rate of 2.0%, when you adjust for built-in upside bias to official reporting according to ShadowStats.com, we actually had a negative growth rate of nearly -2.0%.

shadowstats-2015q4-gdp

Second, as Michael Snyder recently noted, some 23% of Americans in their prime working years are currently unemployed, so we’ve seen absolutely no real jobs recovery and those jobs that have been created are generally low-paying:

When you look at only Americans that are from age 25 to age 54, 23.2 percent of them are unemployed right now.  The following analysis and chart come from the Weekly Standard

“There are 124.5 million Americans in their prime working years (ages 25–54). Nearly one-quarter of this group—28.9 million people, or 23.2 percent of the total—is not currently employed. They either became so discouraged that they left the labor force entirely, or they are in the labor force but unemployed.This group of non-employed individuals is more than 3.5 million larger than before the recession began in 2007,” writes the Republican side of the Senate Budget Committee.

Clearly, we have never recovered from the impact of the last recession.

So if this many Americans are unemployed and wages are dropping nationwide, where is the consumer getting the money to boost spending by 2.4%?

The answer comes to us directly from the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report.

According to the Fed, revolving consumer debt increased a whopping 5.6% during the fourth quarter of 2015, which means that the GDP growth rate and consumer spending growth was largely driven by… you guessed it, debt.

The government and our central bank will continue to play these games until such time that a majority of Americans end up jobless, starving and without future prospects as the middle class is slowly but surely wiped out.

We are already seeing the cracks, as evidenced by a recent report that Walmart Customers Are Too Broke To Shop.

As trend forecaster Gerald Celente once warned, when that day comes and people have lost everything and have nothing else left to lose, they will lose it.

We are being told that whatever issues there may have been are now largely resolved. But just as was the case in the months leading up to the crash of 2008, the signs are everywhere. And just as happened in 2008, the Panic will hit with full force, much to the surprise of most:

So, what happens when the Panic of 2016 happens?

The Panic of ’08 helped wipe out the middle class… this is going to eliminate it to a large degree, because they’re deep in debt…

The markets have been artificially juiced up… so when this thing comes down it takes the top down… the last time it pulled out the bottom… so this is going to be a top-down crash.

And there’s not going to be anything to pump it back up because they’ve blown all their ammunition…

We encourage our readers to prepare accordingly.

Also Read:

Trend Forecaster Gerald Celente Warns: Prepare For The Panic Of 2016: “History Will Remember This”

Venture Capitalist Says Investors Are Terrified Of Market Volatility And Weak Economy: “They Are Scared And Don’t Know What To Do”

This Is How Bad The Economy Really Is: “Walmart Customers Are Too Broke To Shop”

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Author: Mac Slavo
Views: Read by 7,246 people
Date: March 28th, 2016
Website: www.SHTFplan.com

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70 Comments...

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  1. Sgt. Dale says:

    What are they SMOKING????
    People are spending but they aren’t buying anything or if they are they are spending more money of things they could get cheaper just a few months ago.

    Just keep telling the story and some day someone, but not here will believe it.

    Tell a lie enough times and it becomes the truth???? That is what they think!
    Sgt.

  2. Rorinon says:

    They are spending primarily on eating out and entertainment such as movies and sports. They have nothing to show afterward but an empty wallet.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Tell this to all the jobless, layed off , or just plain SOL when it comes to making enough to survive

    • buttcrackofdoom says:

      peddle yer BS elsewhere, troll….it won’t play well here. ME, and Snyder are right…..and early!…use our warnings to your advantage,….or die when the bell rings, chump.

    • TnAndy says:

      Anon:

      Article at ZH said 23% of Americans in their prime working years are unemployed.

      My guess is the reason spending looking good right now is the flush of cash into the system every year at this time via the EIC tax credit.

  4. HitNrun says:

    Snyder is a joke. He claims to be an expert on the economy, of course he also predicted a total collapse no later than the end of last year. He’s like a politician, if he’s right about something he plays it up, and when he’s wrong, and he usually is, glosses over it and pretends he never predicted it.

    • buttcrackofdoom says:

      see my comment above, HitNrun.

    • Collapse is a process, not an event.
      This has become obvious if we’ve paid attention for the last ten years or more.
      Events(crashes,etc), signify a step down, never to step back up again.

      Walmart built one in our small town just last year. This year, they closed it, despite, from all appearances, a constant stream of traffic.
      The funny thing about numbers proves that Samuel Clemmons(Mark Twain) was right; “There are lies, damn lies, and then you have statistics”.
      When prices move up, aka inflation, that masquerades actual ‘sales volume’, which is dying, as the money slowly moves upwards towards the 1% and China, and those who actually make things(the only things we really ‘make’ anymore is weapon systems and aircraft), but now, nobody has the cash to buy those things, because, its hard to buy when you are delegated to a ‘subsistence wage’. Thus the end of the middle class ends w/ Revelation 6, so that there are only the very poor and the very rich. But that is the only way ‘they’ can become wealthier, Earth is, a zero sum game, for every millionaire, a million people MUST BE a dollar poorer… unless, you create something from nothing(produce something from the Earth).
      How do we all like the “Great Sucking sound” of Ross Perot?
      Trump is a ‘hero’ response to this Fourth Turning. But I think they’ll get him, one way or another, and then, many of Trump’s folks, will begin to get them. The Last Trump blows in the whirlwind caused by sewing the wind.

      There is only one way to resolve this, and it can only end one way, civil or otherwise; War.

      The Sleepers have awakened.

      • buttcrackofdoom says:

        if americans knew what shape our country was in, they would be in the streets with their pitchforks and torches by now. even the stupid/poor/PC insulted ones…..they will be cold and hungry SOON, and then it will be “game-on”.

  5. No joke says:

    FMC Technologies , the company that I retired from, has been rated by Moody’s as junk stock. We have been notified that our pension plan check will no longer be sent to the retired folks, like me. Now, tell me again that the econonomy is getting so much better. How much bull $hit does it take for the people to smell the real roses?

    • Kulafarmer says:

      How much does it take for them to all out revolt! Thats where my head is at,,,
      Sorry for your pension going south

    • rellik says:

      Hey No Joke,
      Have you checked the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation?
      If you have a real pension, generally you are covered for some
      part of that pension. Most private pensions are Annuities and covered. Check into it.
      Hopefully you are close to Social security age.
      Sorry to see you have problems.

  6. Plisken says:

    On one end you got’em painting a rosy picture, on the other end its ugly. Can somebody paint something real?

  7. California Resident says:

    They must be referring to the amount of money spent on storage food, ammo, and guns being purchased by smart people who can see farther than 5 minutes into their future.

  8. buttcrackofdoom says:

    watch “the big short” if you want to know where we are in this cycle….second inning, comin’ up…..oh, and don’t forget,….it’s a DOUBLE-HEADER!….as effed-up as things are, it’s gonna take DECADES to get through this debt-clearing stage. all but the terminally neive can see it coming.

  9. Report: There Is No Sign Of Recession: “Strong Consumer Spending Underscores The Economy’s Underlying Strength”

    If anybody believes that one –

    The next big Headline the Government peddles will be …

    Report: Osama Bin Laden ALIVE!: “sources now confirm raid on compound was indeed, Bin Laden double.”

  10. Off the subject.

    Did anyone see that a Muslim store owner either in England or Australia was handing out drinks to Christians out of respect for the Easter Holiday.

    Was soon afterwards shot, and killed for doing it.

    That is without a doubt the saddest thing I ever heard.

    I was sickened by that.

    • Anonymous says:

      BAM – The murder did not take place in England or Australia. It happened in Scotland. He (the Muslim shopkeeper) was not shot but stabbed to death. He was not handing out drinks. He had posted Easter greetings on his Facebook page to all the Christian nation.

      He was a member of the Ahmadi branch/sect of Muslims, who practice non violence and peace to all. Bit like all the tolerant Christian folk who post here.

      Apart from those few little inconsequential errors, BAM, you display all the reporting skills of a dyslexic snail. Mind, you, you did get the fact that he was murdered right!

      I’d hate to have you as a court witness in a murder trial!

  11. Yes, we are going to hell in a basket thanks to the Federal Reserve System. My uncle had a system for winning at the Casino. My uncle’s system was better.

    On the way, don’t forget BUY AMERICAN. Always costs more. But generally, products are sturdier, and better in every way. The government can import all the garbage, but the buck stops with us at the check out counter. One hundred per cent probably not practical. But we should all make an effort. The job you save might be your own.

    • hammerhead says:

      Even at Walmart…..
      I bought a USA made can opener , best i ever had the other day.
      So i bought another .
      And im starting to see more US products.
      Its a start.

      • Warchild Dammit! says:

        Hammer,a hand operated/powered can opener?The answer yes would like to know the name,been looking yard sales ect. for a good one,all the stuff bought recently made of tin foil it seems and break quickly,would be very happy with a good one.

  12. Warchild Dammit! says:

    I agree with Cali.,am buying more glass/food for toys/food for meself/new compass ordered today.Things go very wrong good stuff to have/things just chug along,well…..,still good stuff to have,tis a win/win for me personally.

  13. Gaowlpoop says:

    The thing I have been noticing is that the store shelves are not stocked out. There will be perhaps two rows of cans and then empty space behind.

    I have also noticed that one of the big warehouse clubs is not having the regular stuff at all. When stopped by the door monitor on my way out last time she ask if I had found everything. I told her no that several things ere missing. Her respnces was “We have a lot of people tell us that lately”.

    Also several of the mega companies are shutting down stores all over the world.

    I haven’t quite figured out about the half empty shelves yet, the stores are being closed because of no buisness.

    The economy if doing well, most likely not.

  14. Mensa141 says:

    The first sentence gave it away. Reuters.

  15. TheGuy says:

    Well… here’s the problem.

    You can estimate inflation based on a a geometric sequence. Either calculating the Nth term in the sequence or summing the entire sequence (which works for your overall savings… basically anything growing at a rate of 1.0x or x% per year can be simulated this way).

    So try carrying that out to 40 years.

    Here are my findings. I ran a very “average” person in my simulation by the way. Criteria were: single / buys 260k house with 30% down in cash / swaps out cars with an economy model every 10 years / very lowball on energy and grocery useage a-la myself.

    Said person does great until he retires and then he falls off a cliff.

    He can be saved by either Social Security operating at 75% of its current capacity, or by saving 25% of his income at a 2.3% rate of return. He does not need both.

    What he does need in abundance is an INCOME. And something… ANYTHING… paying some kind of interest. If not… the level of cliff-fall is really quite spectacular. Jaw dropping I’d even say.

    So… what are you going to actually DO.

    I could see holding enough gold to go you 5 years. 10 maybe. On a good day. After that it’s going to be Mach 5 into a brick wall.

    So… I guess what I’m saying is it’s really in everyone’s best interest to make this shit work one way or another. Including the Elite whatevers unless they really dig on mass riots because… it’s spectacularly bad. Like astoundingly so. There would be riots oh at the very least.

    Recession bad, yeah. This worse. If we go NIRP or defund SS totally we got… just… wow problems. It would be ugly with a capital ug. It can’t come to that. Society would implode in about 15 minutes LOL.

  16. Jim in Va. says:

    Average personal debt is over $12,000. Who can live with that? Empty stores,gas going back up,prices on everything going up,expensive cars on payment plans of 7-8 years. Who is the government fooling? Once they lose their credibility its gone for good. Prep up people…get ahead of the curve.

  17. lena says:

    “There Is No Sign Of Recession”

    I got some ocean front property in Arizona !

  18. CATENA says:

    One lifestraw ordered,,,, i’m ready for the big EMP
    completed with my prepps,, i’m good to go
    SGT USMC 1966-72

    • Slingshot says:

      Catena

      I always say I am at Terminal Preps. That’s not true.
      I keep reading all the posts here at SHTF Plan and get New Ideas. Then I go back and pull all the stuff out and re-evaluated everything. Like building a better mouse trap. Fine tune all sorts of gear.

      Time is my biggest enemy. Being able to Move gear in place in the least amount of time. If you waste time by having to fix or have to do a major adaptation to get it to work. You have not done your homework.

  19. Hey, you know! Social media. Selfie Sticks. The people are too busy taking reverse-images of themselves in their bathroom mirrors to even notice…or care. Much less to do anything about it.

    Wasn’t one of the first things our “president” did during his campaign towards 2008, to taut mobile phones, social media and to rally the world around such things?

    SO – like The Borg, he has a collective.

    I guess the only hope just might to have one of those scenarios where the power and telecommunications grids go off line.

    What a rude awakening we will see among the masses THEN once reality sets in.

    It would be about time too – I am tired of seeing people through the perspective of their bathroom mirrors (imagine if they had the brains – or the initiative – to use their cameras’ timer feature…)!

  20. swinging richard says:

    I am sure that their are pockets of of prosperity here and there. On the whole, we have all seen a decline in the economy. This is one year the wife and I will pick up our food prepping.

  21. The economy is always a mixed bag. The “28.9 million people” that are unemployed and in their prime working years is a very concerning figure. But, some reports say we’re getting ready to go hot.

    See more at link (click NetRanger above).

    I just don’t know. This is the time of year everything starts winding up, but, last year it was a false start. The economy continued to smolder. The Cognitive Dissonance workers are hard at it and they’re trying to play on the CD. There are always “diamonds in a goat’s ass” but sometimes its just a CZ. …or, in this case, it may just be goat poop.

    The Administration is constantly attempting to get the people in worse shape. It seems to be a them of theirs. The documented enemy of the people has a strategy: Get people to spend when they have a little hope so they’ll be weaker and more dependent later on when the economy doesn’t recover. Its a constant theme, over and over.

    This time may be different. Be optimistic but but pay attention. Like the article I link to (click my name) sounds hopeful, but, is it a false start? So many are lately.

    There could be a ray of hope because Trump is channeling the anger of the people. Maybe they believe he can actually lead us in the right direction. I don’t know for sure. He’s saying all the right things. Better to vote for Trump that says the right things that and is at least halfway not bought off by the enemy (The Establishment) than to vote for one that you absolutely don’t believe that says some of the right things (Cruz) or some that say absolutely the wrong things (Bernie and Jaillery). If we do things like Bernie and Jaillery, we may never recover, at least not as a more than 50% free country.

    Hillary 2016 for Prison, Benghazi, Vice Foster, Travelgate, Whitewater, E-Mail Servers, etc, etc, etc, etc!!!

    Bernie 2016 for Communism, Higher Taxes, Lower Paying Jobs, Lousy Healthcare, Carbon Taxes and Runaway Inflation!

    Cruz 2016 for Lies, Mistresses and Creepy.

    Trump 2016 because the other choices just will not Make America Great Again.

    • Barn Cat says:

      No, the economy isn’t always a mixed bag. Right now it’s terrible in every aspect of the economy. The government spends a trillion dollars more than it takes in and the economy is still tanking.

      There are over 100 million working age people who are not working. That’s out of 204 million people aged 15-64.

      Real GDP numbers are fake. They’re adjusted by bogus inflation numbers to make them look better. They also include bogus adjustments like the rental value of your home. I own my own home. I could rent it out for $750 a month so if the government uses that number they add $9000 to GDP for that alone.

    • TheGuy says:

      What those 28.9 million people are going to fail to realize (once they are employed again… if that ever happens) is that they just wasted a bunch of years they didn’t have available to waste.

      Retirement is roughly financially equivalent to going to Mars with nothing but what’s in your ship. Ain’t no more shit coming, and stuff just keeps getting more and more expensive on you… so really it’s like “nothing but what’s in your ship and your ship is slowly leaking air… you got some duct tape around here somewhere that will do a half-assed patch job…”

      And what will these 28.9 million do once gainfully re-employed?

      Spend like a crack addict. Likely on credit.

      It’s the American Way(tm).

      All I can say is post Boomer, I see a lot of old people living in cardboard boxes in our future.

    • Amen NetRanger.
      The Last Trump, metaphorically speaking, is being used by God, not because he is a Godly pious man, oh no, but God uses the weird or the unpopular man as His messenger and Trump is on a Godly mission. In this case his horn is sounding loud and the message is simple, Sleeper Awaken, you have been deceived by The Establishment.(GATT, NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP, etc) Ross Perot was right, we now live in the Great Sucking sound, and only a Trump could go to Washington and deliver what is needed, not business as usual, but shock and awe, with cries of You’re FIRED.

      Trump is the Man simply because he is the enemy of my enemy, and thus, my friend. But, for most, to see who the Enemy is, is the Key to all things. This is the message of Sleepers Awaken.

      Its obvious, that many are awakening from their long slumber. Will it make a difference? It will at least in that one regard, that the collective ‘we’ are seeing with eyes open this time around. Last time, 4 million people did note vote for Romney, that voted for McShame.
      This time, Trump is pulling in independents, democrats, and all those who have given up on The System. When Hope is lost, there is only one thing left; RAGE.

      Thus, Metaphorically speaking, The Last Trump.
      (Hey ridiculer, is YOUR name in The Bible?)
      😉

  22. Observer says:

    The only thing consumers are buying is guns and ammo! Lots of it.

    • Shelly73 says:

      true that . you should see them at Academy sports.and also you see people that wouldn’t normally be buying gun .are buying them.that my friend is a true scary thought .people having guns and not knowing how to use them properly they are going to get them selves killed.

    • TheGuy says:

      Y’all are not following what I’m saying here.

      I’m saying that in my math, my Hypothetical Mr. Average is pulling in $83,000 a year. That right there should give you pause. Right there alone. This is to be SINGLE and afford an average house and average economy cars “the usual socially endorsed way”. The house has a 30 year loan with 30% down. The cars he’s saving up and paying cash for so in fact it’s better than “the usual endorsed way” although they are new cars, not used.

      $83,000 to pull just that off. No kids no wife no McMansion. $83k.

      And when he retires he fucking dies in a pool of his own financial sick LONG before his actual physical death. I can’t give you an exact date because I don’t have that level of resolution going on but I’ll tell you straight up he dies $2 mil in the hole.

      (This is assuming ZIRP at all banks and Social Security officially dead).

      $2 mil in the hole.

      Anyone see a problem here?

      You better pray that “ZIRP at all banks and Social Security officially dead” is dead dead dead wrong. You really better pray that.

      I mean unless you happen to have like half a mil in gold bricks just “kicking around”.

    • TheGuy says:

      I forgot to mention my hypothetical average Joe is 26, dies at age 87, and is attempting to save 15% of his income (at 0% interest).

      I guess what I’m saying here is… you’re not going to Robinson Crusoe your way out of the inflation monster. If you don’t believe me try the math yourself. Google geometric sequence and use your imagination.

      Part of this prepping effort should go into PREVENTION. Anything you can do to help prevent ZIRP and the death of Social Security… would be… very… helpful. If dying in a pool of your own financial sick is not appealing to you.

      I have no idea WHAT that is… what can be done to help… but at least I’m throwing out the idea that we better try fricking SOMETHING to save this shit because… I fail to see what else works.

      (Half a mil in gold appreciating at the same rate as inflation works but where are you gonna get half a mil from? Producing literally everything you consume and I do mean EVERYTHING… with nil financial input… also works but come on… that didn’t even happen in the Old West. I would venture to say it’s likely NEVER happened).

  23. Flanders says:

    Some people are simply more economic minded, and that contributes to the illusion media has. They don’t realize that some people are so desperate that they must resort to selling their most-prized possessions, such as this man who is selling a “gay man’s wheelchair”.

    https://murderbymedia3.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gay-mans-wheelchair/

  24. rabbitone says:

    I have always been interested in GDP numbers. When I ran my own business (now closed) I tried to use GDP to correlate with my sales to use it as a future predictor. For some time I was unable to use GDP because it in any way or shape or form never correlated with my sales patterns. Then I discovered why it did not correlate and was able to adjust GDP to make it useful.

    What I found is GDP in its current form is a relatively recent invention, dating from the 1930s and being continually remodeled to today. What GDP is supposed to represent is the total value of all (business) goods and services produced between two points in time. What state-sponsored economists, did needing a statistical justification for perfecting their theories of management of the economy was add the Federal, State and Local Government as a “business” producing entity in total GDP under the guise that they are a “producing” service and need to be represented.

    So if one takes a closer look at what drove up the official (BEA) GDP numbers the last few years to provide growth it was governments spending and in many quarters it was the increase costs from implementing Obamacare which made GDP positive. If you strip out the government components of GDP (use a search engine with components of GDP) then you get the GDP growth that Shadow stats shows. The net result is that Government has been sucking up all the resources (via taxes, control, employed workers,) as private industry is being depleted and is the only reason GDP is positive. So before I closed my business I found that GDP with government removed as a component often correlated with my sales patterns. I used it several times to make sound business decisions (including closing the Business).

    What government is effectively doing is taking a previously employed person by the private sector and making them look still employed in GDP. They do this by counting a person on welfare as still active under the government assistance component of government in GDP. This is how they “fudge” the statistics. Thus they have made GDP a “zero-sum” game between business and government.

    Bush and Obama have taken this “zero-sum” game to a new level as government has grown and business has shrunk. GDP now includes government components that in the past were omitted. It is not hard (using the shadow stats number) to see that since 2000 a larger and larger segment of our population is in a depression…

  25. NutNattion says:

    Thanks rabittone.

  26. Barn Cat says:

    The housing bubble helped generate bogus GDP numbers too. The value of all of the new homes built was added to GDP instead of being added as they were paid off. So if a contractor builds a home at a cost of $150,000 but it’s still unsold that cost should be subtracted.

 

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