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One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes (Part 1)

Brandon Smith
March 5th, 2015
Alt Market
Comments (92)

This article was originally published by Brandon Smith at Alt Market.

real-economyWe are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand), the Baltic Dry Index losing 30 percent since the beginning of the year, the Swiss currency surprise, the Greeks threatening EU exit (and now Greek citizens threatening violent protests with the new four-month can-kicking deal), and the effects of the nine-month-long West Coast port strike not yet quantified. This is not just a fleeting expression of a negative first quarter; it is a sign of things to come.

Stock markets are, of course, once again at all-time highs after a shaky start, despite nearly every single fundamental indicator flashing red. But as Zero Hedge recently pointed out in its article on artificial juicing of equities by corporations using massive stock buybacks, this is not going to last much longer, simply because the debt companies are generating is outpacing their ability to prop up the markets.

This conundrum is also visible in central bank stimulus measures. As I have related in past articles, the ability of central banks to goose the global financial system is faltering, as bailouts and low-interest-rate capital infusions now have little to no effect on overall economic performance. The fiat fuel is no longer enough; and when this becomes apparent in the mainstream, all hell will indeed break loose.

The argument that banks can prop up the system forever is now being debunked. In this series of articles, I will cover the core reasons why this is happening, starting with the basis of all economics: supply and demand.

The Baltic Dry Index has been a steadfast indicator of the REAL economy for many years. While most other indexes and measures of fiscal health are subject to direct or indirect manipulation, the BDI has no money flowing through it and, thus, offers a more honest reflection of the world around us. In the past two months, the index measuring shipping rates and international demand for raw goods has hit all-time historical lows, plummeting 57 percent over the course of the past 12 months and 30 percent for the year to date.

The dwindling lack of demand for shipping presents obvious challenges to mainstream talking heads who contend that the overall economic picture indicates recovery. That’s because if demand for raw goods has fallen so far as to produce a 57 percent rate drop over the past year, then surely demand for the consumer goods that those raw goods are used to produce must be collapsing as well. The establishment machine has used the same broken-record argument against this conclusion, despite being proven wrong over and over again: the lie that fleet size is the cause of falling shipping rates, rather than a lack of demand for ships. This is the same argument used by pundits to distract from the problems inherent in the severe drop in oil prices: that oversupply is the issue, and that demand is as good as it ever was. Forbes has even attempted to outright dismiss the 29-year low of the BDI and alternative economic analysts in the same lazily written article.

First, let’s address the issue of global demand for goods. Does the BDI represent this accurately? Well, as most of you know, the real picture on manufacturing and export numbers is nearly impossible to come by considering most, if not all indexes fail to account for monetary devaluation and inflation in costs of production. For instance, mainstream propagandists love to argue that manufacturing (like retail) generally posts at least small to modest gains every year. What they fail to mention or take into account is the added costs to the bottom line of said manufacturers and retailers, as well as the added costs to the end consumer. Such costs are often not addressed in the slightest when final numbers are tallied for the public.

In manufacturing, some numbers are outright falsified, as in the case of China, where officials are forcing plant managers to lie about output.

In my view, any decline made visible in the false numbers of the mainstream should be multiplied by a wide margin in order to approximate what is going on in the real economy. China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, continues to suffer declines in manufacturing “expansion” as it’s PMI suggests orders remain steadily stagnant.

“Official” statistics show a 3.3 percent decline in Chinese exports in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped 19.9 percent. Exports slid 12 percent on a monthly basis while imports fell 21 percent according to the Customs Administration.

In Japan, despite the falling Yen which was expected to boost overseas demand, export growth declined for last year, certainly in terms of export volume. The recent “jump” in January does nothing to offset the steady erosion of Japanese exports over the past five years and the flat demand over the past two years.

Japan’s manufacturing expansion has slowed to the slowest pace in seven months.

In Germany, the EU’s strongest economic center, industrial output has declined to the lowest levels since 2009, and factory orders have also plunged to levels not seen since 2009.

Despite the assumptions in the mainstream media that lower oil prices would result in high retails sales, this fantasy refuses to materialize. Retail sales continue the dismal trend set during the Christmas season of 2014,with the largest decline in 11 months in December, and continueddeclines in January.

Oil is certainly the most in-our-face undeniable indicator of imploding demand. Volatility has skyrocketed while pump prices have dropped by half in many places. One may be tempted to only see the immediate benefits of this deflation. But they would be overlooking the bigger picture of global demand. Oil is the primary driver of economic productivity. Dwindling demand for oil means dwindling productivity which means dwindling consumption which means a dwindling economy. Period.

OPEC reports announce downgraded global demand for oil above and beyond expectations. Oil demand has fallen to levels not seen since 2002.

Beyond the issue of real global demand for raw goods, the argument that the BDI is being gutted only due to an oversupply of cargo vessels also does not take into account the fact that Shipping companies often SCRAP extra ships when demand falters.  I find it rather amusing that mainstream economists seem to think that dry bulk companies would continue a trend of fielding cargo ships they don’t use causing an artificial drop in freight rates.  As far as I know, such companies are not in the habit of undermining their own profits if they can help it.  When an oversupply of ships occurs, companies remove unused vessels either through scrap or dry dock in an attempt to drive freight rates back up to profitable levels.  This often works, unless, it is DEMAND for cargo shipping that is the issue, not the supply of ships.

Ship scrapping boomed in 2013 and has not stopped since.  In fact, dry bulk mover COSCOdismantled at least 17 ships in the month of January alone and has been dismantling ships consistently since at least 2013.  The trend of scrapping is often glossed over by shippers as a “modernization effort”, but the fact remains that cargo companies are always removing ships from supply in order to maximize rates and profits.

Finally, global shipping giant Maersk Line now openly admits that the primary detriment to shipping rates, the reason the BDI is falling to historic lows, is because of falling demand in nearly every market; ship supply is secondary.

Does falling demand result in a lack of fleet use and thus “oversupply”?  Of course.  However, this chicken/egg game that establishment economists play with the BDI needs to stop.  Falling demand for goods came first, the number of unused ships came second.  This is the reality.

A rather cynical person might point out that all of the stats above come from the propaganda engine that is the mainstream, so why should they count? I would suggest these people consider the fact that the propaganda engine is constantly contradicting itself, and in-between the lines, we can find a certain amount of truth.

If manufacturing is in “expansion”, even minor expansion, then why are exports around the world in decline? If the Baltic Dry Index is dropping off the map because of a “supply glut of ships”, then why are other demand indicators across the board also falling, and why are major shipping agencies talking about lack of demand? You see, this is what alternative analysts mean by the “real economy”; we are talking about the disconnect within the mainstream’s own data, and we are attempting to discern what parts actually present a logical picture. The media would prefer that you look at the economy through a keyhole rather than through a pair of binoculars.

Beyond this lay the true beneficiaries of public oblivion; international corporate moguls, banking financiers, and political despots. Corporations and governments only do two things relatively well — lying and stealing. One always enables the other.

The establishment has done everything in its power to hide the most foundational of economic realities, namely the reality of dying demand. Why? Because the longer they can hide true demand, the more time they have to steal what little independent wealth remains within the system while positioning the populace for the next great con (the con of total globalization and centralization). I will cover the many advantages of an economic collapse for elites at the end of this series.

For now I will only say that the program of manipulation we have seen since 2008 is clearly changing. The fact of catastrophic demand loss is becoming apparent. Such a loss only ever precedes a wider fiscal event. The BDI does not implode without a larger malfunction under the surface of the financial system. Oil and exports and manufacturing do not crumble without the weight of a greater disaster bearing down. These things do not take place in a vacuum. They are the irradiated flash preceding the deadly fallout of a financial atom bomb.

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You can contact Brandon Smith at: [email protected]

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Author: Brandon Smith
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Date: March 5th, 2015
Website: http://www.alt-market.com/

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92 Comments...

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  1. PO'd Patriot says:

    Mr. Smith, no disrespect but I’ve been looking at it lastly for some time now and still the beat goes on. I think we’ll be looking at it lastly for the next several years. That’s not to say that its going to get any better. I’m still gathering things in and will continue to do so as long as I am alive and able. Best wishes to you and yours.

    • BigB says:

      Agreed PO’d, The rest of the world is in much worse shape than we are. The rich around the world are putting their money into the U.S. Stock Market as they have no where else to go. That is what keeps us so strong. For the moment!!!!!!

      I am very well prepared and will continue to stay so as when this bitch of an economy goes down it is going to go down fast and harder than anyone has ever seen before.

      BigB

      • Rick says:

        With all due respect, if the US is better off, then why are the US, UK and Japanese central banks selling their gold reserves while the rest of the world’s central banks buying it up? Why are investors putting more money in foreign stocks than US stocks if we’re so safe? Why are wealthy US residents renouncing their US citizenships and leaving the county in record numbers? Why has the US increased the penalty for renouncing citizenships from $250 to over $8,000 with a 6month waiting period and copies of years of back taxes? Why is our liberal government talking about protecting our retirement savings by nationalizing our 401ks and IRAs? Our dollar is the only currency, besides gold, that hasn’t depreciated. Do you really think we’ll be better off than the rest of the world when it crashes? This is a shell game and the US is going to lose. How long do you really think the US dollar will remain as world reserve currency? I sure as hell wouldn’t put my trust in a fiat currency backed by $17 trillion in debt and counting!

        • Pissed Off Granny says:

          Great questions Rick.

          A look at the debt clocks of all nations show just how precarious the whole Ponzi scheme has become. Let your fingers do the walking.

          And the US is in over our heads at 100%+ of GNP. Now if that was my home budget it would not take a rocket scientist to tell me I was bankrupt.

          Oh, the banksters can still steal enough from us to keep on rolling for a little while. Your bank account, your retirement account, and executive orders from POTUS raising taxes should prolong the inevitable for a short amount of time.

          I wonder if any of the three mentioned above will awaken the American people enough to cause a march on the District of Criminals…..

          • durangokidd says:

            “The fact of catastrophic demand loss is becoming apparent.”

            It has always been anticipated by the Federal Reserve, as the lack of demand by the American Middle Class is designed to punish the BRIC’s; China most of all.

            No American consumer, no Chinese economy. No Chinese economy, irate Chinese citizens. Irate Chinese citizens, less money for Chinese Military. Less money for the Chinese Military, less Chinese adventurism abroad.

            Its all by design, and designed by the NWO Intelligence and Financial Complex. 🙁

          • BigB says:

            I agree with POG, good question. The simplest way I can put it is that the U.S. has the reserve currency. Everyone else can print money like the Fed here does but it doesn’t mean anything to any other economy but their own. When we print money like we are doing everyone has the advantage of obtaining U.S. dollars that in turn when invested back to their individual economies actually strengthens their individual currency.

            Why is the UK and Japan selling their gold reserves? I couldn’t tell you. Japan has been a hot mess since the 80’s. Britain, I don’t know but I am sure it has something to do with the Euro in some manner.

            But I do know that every Western Nation is running a Ponzi scheme based on what they see us doing here in America and I believe they are betting that the U.S. will be the final domino to fall. Whether that be true or not is yet to be seen. It’s going to happen and that you can be assured of but in what order and when is anybody’s guess.

            BigB

        • sixpack says:

          Great post Rick. I’ve wondered about those things as well. The actions just don’t match the words, do they?

          OT: Here’s a link to what might end up being a patriot getting tired of sitting on the bench. I’m going to watch it carefully, to see what the ‘officials’ come up with. Is this what the beginning of the resistance is going to look like? You average, law-abiding citizen, suddenly gets fed up and rebels…

          Ex-prison guard held in NSA, other D.C.-area shootings

          ht tp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/03/04/shootings-nsa-intercounty-connector-suspect-custody/24360749/

        • EastTNCentIN says:

          The debt is over 18 trillion now and is larger than our total GDP…

          http://www.usdebtclock.org/

        • XambaQDar says:

          Here, here! well said Rick

      • Rodster says:

        We really don’t know when the black swan will arrive. No one can predict that. All we know is that TPTB are trying to plug up all the leaking water holes in the boat. Eventually it all comes crashing down and this time, the entire planet.

      • SMASH says:

        AMERICA IS BABYLON AND WILL FALL IN ONE HOUR!!!READ THIS!!!http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.com/hardtruth/america_babylon.htm

    • Brandon Smith says:

      The numbers say otherwise and by the end of this series of articles you may feel differently. The bottom line is the U.S. economy and most of the world is in severe decline and has been since 2008. There comes an inevitable point when underlying economic crisis becomes mainstream economic crisis. Right now banking elites around the world including Greenspan, Rothschild, the IMF and the BIS are all openly admitting that a SHTF scenario is coming (setting themselves up as prognosticators). How much advanced warning do you think the banksters are giving the public? I doubt they would give several years…

      • vtfree2 says:

        Brandon, it is also common knowledge that Cosco will no longer accept American Express cards at their locations staring 2016.

        This indicates they can no longer except the charge rates, which in turn relays the message of declining profits and lack of demand ie. cut costs at all corners.

        The bottom of the bucket is rusting out.

        BDI has historically been indicator of world commerce.

        • TPSnodgrass says:

          vtfree2,
          COSCO-China Overseas Shipping Company is NOT “Costco” the box retailer. The two are separate companies not related to each other at all.COSCO, is a literal “ship-ping” company, transiting all of the world’s oceans. Costco is a membership-fee based big box retailer. Big difference.
          Costco had an exclusive “deal” with AMEX until AMEX refused to negotiate the rates charged to Costco members. Costco told AMEX to take a hike.
          Please have your facts straight for next time. Thanks! You are correct, BDI has historically been the indicator of world commerce trends.

        • durangokidd says:

          Actually, sales at Cosco are UP, which explains the recent pop in its stock price.

          Most Americans use Visa and MC; which should tell you that Cosco’s recent switch from AE means that more middle class Americans are buying bigger volumes of food for storage.

          On credit. 🙁

  2. WallyDog says:

    I found this insight profound as we look at the coming “Golden Horde”

    http://www.amren.com/features/2014/09/all-i-really-need-to-know-about-race-i-learned-teaching-in-kindergarten/

    Stay Thirsty my friends.

  3. Kulafarmer says:

    Wish it would hurry up,
    Lets get it over with!

  4. Iowa says:

    Hopefully God will keep America safe during the Time of Jacob’s Trouble.

    • Hmm don’t see America anywhere in the bible..

      • Rodster says:

        Correct and last i’ve read America has been the cause of “Jacob’s trouble”.

      • WhyDieLost says:

        .02, no, America , specifically, is not listed in the Bible nor are any other present day nations…except Israel, Lebanon, Syria etc.. Many nations are listed under the older Biblical names. However, God looks at the people in those nations and all people are mentioned. America is listed in this respect. We have been the protector of Israel and that may cease under Oblahma. We have blessed Israel and we have been blessed for it but that is changing. When we stop blessing Israel then all Hell is going to break loose. God gave a way out of this predicament: 2Chron. 7:14. You know what, we won’t do it and we are awaiting our just consequences. It is coming, time is short.

        • Srsly??? says:

          Wrong, reason why the bible does not have America and other nations listed is because they did not even knew those places existed. They only new of the Middle East territories because that is as far as they had traveled. Remember, these people thought the earth was flat, as in if they traveled far enough they would find the end and fall off. As I’ve said, the bible has numerous unknown authors, and most were uneducated sheep herders.
          Question, how did Jesus find people named Peter, Paul, John …etc in the Middle East? These names do not exist there now or then. Where did these people originate from?

          • Sharon says:

            The Bible lists nations (actually kingdoms since “nations” refers to various ethnic peoples and “Kingdoms” refers to what we now call nations) that will play out the final days. Some are named and some are not (as in mentioning the Kings of the East which includes various nations to the east of the final battle ground).

            The old names of that time were, of course, used since they were in common use but that doesn’t mean that those nations are not still present even if territorial boundaries may have changed. It would have been useless to talk about “America” or the United States” at that time the same way it would have been to talk about, say, the United States in 1775 since we -the Colonists- were British at the time and there was no “United States”. Some nations (Kingdoms) are mentioned by their symbolic names (such as the Eagle, the Bear, the Lion, etc.)

            FWIW, you would not have heard the name “Jesus” used in biblical times either since it is a pronunciation of the Greek rendering of the name Yeshua (from Yehoshua), which is Iasus (sometimes written as Jasus but there was no “J” in either Hebrew or Greek so that is a modern abstraction (English didn’t use a J either in its earlier stages of development which is why some Old English spellings seem odd to us, but that does not make them invalid).

            Keep in mind that the entire Bible you are exposed to today is a modern (English language if you are American) language translation of the original Hebrew and Greek texts. The Bible was not written in English or any other modern language even though modern Hebrew -as well as Aramaic- has a strong connection to the ancient language of the time.

            The “authors” of the Bible were not “uneducated sheep herders” since it is extraordinarily unlikely that anyone other than Scribes and the very few Educated of the time knew how to write (there was no such thing as public education at that time, and there certainly wasn’t widespread access to paper and pens and such to write with). Luke, for instance, was a physician.

            You also seem to use other anachronisms which indicate a poor or confused knowledge of the Biblical times as well, perhaps you would profit by downloading something like e-Sword and a number of different English language translations of the Bible for personal study, it doesn’t cost anything to do this and you may gain a better understanding of the things you seem to want to talk about (which at least indicates you have some interest in discussing them, and this is to be commended. Just don’t let yourself fall victim to those who would take advantage of your lack of knowledge to deceive you about it and what it contains.)

            • WhyDieLost says:

              Sharon,
              Well said! Plus, it is not what the Apostles were, it is what they became! They became servants of God and leaders of men! These men would change the world for truth and Love. So much more can be said for them.

          • Marcus of Arrington says:

            Petra (the rock) and Saul did exist. The NT names were changed to the Kings English equivalents.

            Greek, Hebrew and Roman names are also documented for the Apostles in historical writings found Ano Dominus.

            John… I’m not sure what his Hebrew name was, but it’s probably similar to Petra.

            I’m sure there are Jewish scholars that can comment with/upon their names.

            Jesus was called Ieosus also Yeshua.

          • Ohevi says:

            Hebrew translation.

            Peter = kepha

            Paul = saul

            John = yohanan or yahnathan or yahchonan

        • why die lost…. you r so full of shit your eyes are turning brown

    • Foxglove666 says:

      Why would God care about this fucked up nation that single-handedly brought about most of the world’s ills? You need to go to an optometrist and get the tint taken off those rose colored glasses….

      • Maverick says:

        Foxglove, correction: The international bankers and other NWO scum have been USING America to do the things that have caused most of the world to turn against us. Looking for enemies? There is a whole world full of them. Take your pick.

    • Son of Liberty says:

      To be sure, there will be a place of refuge for the church (woman) the anti-Christ attempts to destroy (Rev. 12:13-16), though I’m not sure where. Wood, in his book “DISCOVERY TO CATASTROPHE” thinks it MIGHT be in Alaska. Who knows for sure? I know I don’t.

      We will go through the great tribulation, though. Either that, or Jesus Christ is a horrible liar (Mt. 24:29ff; Mk 13:24ff) as he said the gathering of his people, or what we call the rapture, will occur ‘immediately after the tribulation.’ Don’t look forward to that one people, but it is coming.

      However, I’m also fully convinced America is in the book of Revelation as Babylon (Rev. 16:17 – 18:24). Remember, the book of Rev. is largely written symbolically (Rev. 1:1). Check out the Greek work for ‘communicated’ (NASB), or ‘signified’ (NKJV). It means to (primarily) inform in signs and symbols.

      Sorry, American is there in the book, and it don’t look good folks.

      Blessings,

      Son of Liberty

  5. nlightened2 says:

    End of September is my guess.

    • Anonymous says:

      This is the shemita year and September is the end of it.
      Debt jubelie is what’s on the card, and the house of cards is to come crashing down.
      Every major market crash happened on a Shemita year, every ( seven year ).
      The more we are corrupt, the harder the crash.
      So grab the popcorn and watch the show.

      • Sharon says:

        The problem here is that you can figure the Shemita year in all sorts of different manners since the original calendars are nowhere near the Gregorian we use today.

        The lunar month was used at that time, (and there were 13 of them some years and 12 of them at others since the years were also were modified by the Solar year and the day was sometimes of its own standard as well) and was determined by actual observations of the moon by the people which wasn’t necessarily a precise measurement since it was subjective to at least some degree. Nothing was exact and records are impossible to relate exactly to today.).

        Not that this isn’t worth noting, but take it with a grain of salt at the same time.

        • Marcus of Arrington says:

          Anon,
          In retrospect maybe everybody should max-out the credit cards with usable stuff. That way you walk away with freebies from the Jubilee. Didn’t “W” tell everybody to “Go Shopping” after TARP?
          LOL…satire intended!

    • anon says:

      Agreed. Between the 23rd and 26th. 7 years of the cycle complete

    • Son of Liberty says:

      a guess for sure, but I think a sound one.

      Blessings,

      Son of Liberty

  6. The Prophet says:

    The ability of TPTB to manipulate and delay the inevitable is sometimes amazing. The standard of living will be the biggest victim. It’s well on it’s way down the tubes.

  7. Kulafarmer says:

    Slow motion train wreck,,,
    Dont hold your breath anyone, progressive doesnt necessarily mean progressively better, in this case it definitely means progressively worse, our world has been taken over by progressives,

  8. peckerwood says:

    3 things everyone should focus on is acquiring…

    livable shelter: w/ access to semi clean water sources, buy, build, rent, farm, rental units.

    food: to grow, produce, eat, trade and sell

    fuel: to produce energy, store, use and sell

    if you can provide these 3 things for yourselves and manage, sell or trade the excess to others for what you need in services, goods, or pm’s, you will survive the collapse and maybe even come out ahead in the end.

    there will be opportunities to those who know where to look for them and work with the current system in place to their and others advantage by providing viable services.

    everything you need to start and do such a thing is sitting right in front of right now at this very moment.

    ‘your online computer which gives you access to the entire world at your finger tips’

    take advantage of it now while you still can.

  9. mallardhen says:

    September-October seem just about the time all will go south, thank goodness we will have time for another harvest & canning season along with butchering and then deer season season will be just around the corner.

    I am hoping by that time my husband will be back on his feet after his fall and we will have time for another all out push to get many rik of wood, I am hoping to get 2 to 3 years ahead, we have a lot of wood on our property and even if it is green as long as we have next winters that is dry 2 years ahead green will dry before we need it.

    • Borodino says:

      Dear mallardhen, Do you folks have a rocket stove for certain purposes? (cooking, for example). They save a lot on firewood.

      • mallardhen says:

        WE have a small wood cook stove it warms one part of our house as well as feeds us. I’ve cooked on a wood stove since 1983 I also have an LP stove but if I don’t hav LP then open all the windows and use the wood. we live up on a mountain so we have lots of wood.

    • Marcus of Arrington says:

      Add additional bar chain oil, spare chains, fuel filter, air filter, spark plug, files and spray carb cleaner to your prep list. Replacing a chainsaw with an axe ain’t gonna be possible for him if he hurt his back.

  10. Sharon says:

    The economy is doing well for some sectors of the people and is anemic to poor for others.

    The (real) wealthy have benefited immensely from the Fed stimulus programs that have given virtually free money to wealthy financial institutions -and their even wealthier owners- to invest mostly in themselves and their own stocks with the slightly lower wealthy class that is attached to them sharing in the riches according to their position in the wealth profile.

    The public sector is doing well, maybe some of the lower positions in the lower divisions of government are remaining stagnant or losing ground but overall the government sector is prospering in everything from their income and their benefits to their retirement plan guarantees.

    The top end of the income producing middle class -the 100 to 250 thousand dollar a year class- is doing well but losing numbers as opportunities to enter or remain in that class diminish. They also share an increasing portion of the tax burden needed to finance the public sector.

    The middle of the middle and lower middle class along with the upper lower class private sector workers (the ones that actually produce the economic basis of our country) are suffering diminishing income, diminishing opportunity for employment, far less job security and fewer benefits with increasing tax burdens on top of it for many of them. They are the ones truly hurt in mass by this economy, with the upper lower working class being hurt the worst. Reliable private sector retirement plans for the younger and middle age workers in this group are becoming rare to non existent with many of the middle aged ones having had to cash out of them trying to stay even and the younger ones not having them at all.

    The poor are basically unaffected although they have seen their position improve with increased and some additional benefits but are now finding themselves locked in their place as there is no longer non punitive ways for them to advance to higher classes and become independent (Blacks, black men in particular and the younger ones more than the older ones, have been particularly victimized by this development but seem politically unaware of it).

    So the economy is booming or it is failing according to your position in it, but it certainly isn’t producing across the board improvements and opportunities for everyone to make gains the way it did in prior periods of recovery. I doubt it ever again will without some really drastic changes in world conditions.

    • Frank Thoughts says:

      You nailed it: the problem people have in grasping what is going on is making the assumption the economy rises or falls in a coherent fashion, either lifting all boats, or sinking all boats. But, instead, the economy is a mix of well-entrenched tiers and what I call ‘whirlpools’. The tiers represent the various income classes. For example, doctors always make good cash and occupy a tier; so do mid to high level government workers, who are paid on a ‘band’ basis, which is always adjusted to inflation.

      Once you are in a tier, it is hard to fall out of it unless you become a drunk or do something really stupid. This is great if you are earning nice money (a high level lawyer etc.) but not great if you have been slotted into the lower tiers. As for whirlpools, these are inter-connected networks of influence that spin around and suck up cash. An example of this is political lobbyists. They create whirlpools that drain money away from the public and towards themselves. Another whirlpool is the military-industrial complex; others are financial services, real estate agents etc.

      Because of these factors, the economy still has a lot of life left in it. Personally, I would not worry about the poor: they will always be taken care of. The real poverty occurs in the tiers up to the upper middle class. That is where the real suffering is. The people working all hours trying to make ends meet but constantly getting further into debt. Much of the black community is a write-off wealth-wise. They have been slotted into the lower tiers and it is next to impossible to get out of there.

      But where you compare the US to other countries, the economy is still more advanced than the majority of the planet. The countries of the world can be divided up into three tiers of wealth and sophistication. They are:

      Tier 1: Nordic countries, Germany, Austria, Australia, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada, etc. These are advanced places with widespread prosperity and a high living standard.

      Tier 2: The US, the UK, China, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, etc. These are countries that have aspects of their society that are very advanced but have severe inequalities and thus large parts of the population with a very poor living standard. It sucks to be anything less than upper middle class in these countries.

      Tier 3: The rest of the world: the usual bag of excrement of third world hell holes (Haiti) and dictatorships (Egypt). These places suck to be anything but part of the ruling elite’s family or inner circle.

      I recommend only living in Tier 1 countries but will make an exception for a Tier 2 if you are in the top strata of society (making US $150,000 and up). You are a fool if you live in a Tier 2 and are not making US $150,000 or more.

  11. Kevin2 says:

    I don’t know about the Baltic Dry Index being a good gauge of economic activity by measuring the cost of shipping containers in global trade. If the price of oil drops by 50% the cost of global transport drops with it. Measuring the quantity of shipping containers rather than the cost would be a far more accurate indicator.

    I ain’t saying yep and I ain’t saying nope; I’m just saying maybe.

  12. Coincidence? says:

    It would appear that we are indeed on a collision course with some big event soon. Mid September does seem like the time the wheels will come off this thing in a big way.

    From my vantage point it seems as if the timing of the economic collapse and strange climate change effects are being timed together. French prime Minister said we have 500 days to climate change CHAOS.(BIG ASTEROID?) He said this on May 13,2014. The 500th day puts us at the last week of September of 2015. Have any of you seen the ” I PET GOAT 2″ video on you tube? It seems a blueprint for what is coming in many ways.

    I would imagine that right around the time this implodes that we are also going to go to war, if past history is any indicator. If you were a Globalist Luciferian and could see into the future courtesy of your master, it would make sense. I believe that these people are timing their events with biblical events of what is the Tribulation and the WRATH OF GOD on all sinners as the bible says.

    Revelation says that this time upcoming will be to TEST ALL MANKIND, those that dwell on the Earth, to see if they will repent and come to the knowledge of the truth. Sadly, most will curse God, as it says and not be saved.

    My estimation of this is that the Tribulation DOES begin in September of 2015 I believe America is in for widespread natural disasters, economic collapse, societal unrest, martial law soon and much more.

    Get right with the one true God and his son Jesus Christ, repent of sins.God says to pray to ESCAPE the WRATH to come. We may well see many in this country many vanish in a RAPTURE event that everyone says can’t happen but is very much biblical. You will know when it happens because it will also include most young children. Graves will open.

    This event would happen on the Feast of Trumpets, also called Yom Teruah or Rosh Hashana.(September 11-15 range here). This is a two day fall Biblical Feast day of Israel that is tied to 1st Corinthians 15:52 and 1st Thessalonians 4:17-18

    Get ready spiritually, no just being a prepper.

    • Maverick says:

      I do believe the house of cards will fall eventually but I won’t buy into the idea of setting any date for any type of event. All of these date setters have been proven to be wrong in the past.

  13. Angry Old White Guy says:

    On a happier note, the price of CCI Mini-Mags have dropped at my local gun store, $6.95 for the 100 round plastic boxes.

    Going to Sam’s Clib on Saturday and picking up 6 cases of Kleenex and more Reynold’s Alum. foil, (can never have enough foil hats in stock).

    All part of our 5 year inventory stocking up plan.

    • Mountain Trekker says:

      New day, same comment. Check out the video on “The Survivalist Blog” on the Green Tip. It looks to be pretty effective. Trekker Out.

    • hammerhead says:

      Your a lucky guy , I aint seen cci anywhere for a couple years now .
      Just remington junk, i wont bother with that shit.

      • Kulafarmer says:

        Thats why i got rid of my 22s
        The only ammo they seem to get locally over the last few years has been absolute garbage,,,
        I figure if we get to the point of needing guns i wont be grabbing for a pea shooter anyway so why bother. Now i look at my 223/5.56 ARs like the pea shooters, the real guns are .30cal and over,,,
        Yea yea i know even a 22 can be effective bla bla bla,,,
        Not nearly as effective as a tuned AR,,,

    • Maverick says:

      AOWG, those 100-round plastic boxes ARE reusable. I save them and keep my target rounds in them separate from my hollowpoints.

  14. True Story says:

    The BDI says a lot.
    High numbers = high production outflow & Consumption.
    Low numbers = low productivity & low consumption.

    If a large portion of people are not buying, especially useless items. Then this automatically slows down production and shipping because the demand is not there.
    The BDI is probably the only number that has not been tarnished by manipulation. The rest of the Market without a doubt is a huge yes. Lack of consumption slows down most raw materials and goods being delivered.

  15. withoutabisquit says:

    Wallydog. I’ve been there and done that. I NOW work in a county school in Alabama (98% white) and LOVE it. There are a few schools out there where the kids are sweet, respectful and want to learn; but they are becoming more and more scarce. The mornings are full of hugs and kisses from parents and the afternoons full of good-byes to friends and teachers. I would not recommend going into teaching now. I just saw a report on Drudge that in about 5 years white children will be the minority and the wonderful system I work in now and others like it, will be hard to find. There is not enough money for me to EVER go back to a school where the majority is black. Like the author, I thought I would was going to have a nervous breakdown. Although I did not enter a mental ward, I would come home and go to bed crying myself to sleep. I will clean houses for a living before doing that again. God help us all.

  16. average joe says:

    I think we had our black swan event when they picked the last president.

  17. peckerwood says:

    ukraine own troops are talking about marching on their own zog amerika c.i.a. and vice prez joe biden supported ukraine puppet president

    the zog amerika c.i.a. really screwed up this time…

    “People are starting to see through…our Ukraine is f*cked, thanks to the ‘heroes’ for wrecking the country, for the 40 hryvnya per dollar, for Crimea, for Donbass, for Tymoshenko, for Poroshenko…thanks for everything! All of you scum should have been scattered to four winds on the Maidan, we’d still have 8 hryvnya per dollar, and Crimea, and Donbass, and all these people would still be alive, and there’d be normal salaries…goddamned ‘europeans’! What f*cking Europe are we with salaries lower than Somalia ?!”

    link attached…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btfgd0pmPrk

  18. Confederate says:

    I agree with Kula, let’s just get it over with.

  19. aljamo says:

    If oil has fallen 50% to around 50 dollars a barrel, then why has the pump price increased about fifty cents in the last month? Pure rip off! These oil companies have ripped consumers off for so long that they believe it is their right to do just that. Oil is said to be falling to 20 dollars per barrel because of the glut, that should drive the price well below a dollar a gallon. Yeah, like that will ever happen! Solar power is the answer to get the thieves off our backs. The oil and electric behemoths are fighting tooth and nail to stop solar power development nationwide. Their enourmous gouged profits depend on maintaining the status quo. They are a disgrace to humanity and common sense.

    • Sharon says:

      If you’re in California or one of the areas now supplying California, it is probably because that refinery blew up and reduced refined gasoline and diesel supplies.

      You can have every fuel storage facility in the United States overflowing but that isn’t what affects gas prices if refinery capacity is less than demand, which it starts becoming if a refinery goes offline or has reduced capacity for any reason. We have lots of new crude and nat gas production in this country, but refineries for it are not increasing correspondingly (more of a regulatory thing than an oil company thing).

      Of course, with abundant supplies and falling crude prices, those who refine their own should experience a huge savings – have you considered this?

      Gasoline is up only a few cents where I live, nowhere near 50 cents. Still around 2 bucks a gallon and we don’t refine it close to here.

    • The price increase on gas is due to the increase on the tax rate last month did you forget the words obahma said “people do not get use to cheap gas”

    • I do not think we have a glut, I thnk the nations are getting huge reserves built for the coming war and they are using a supply glut as a excuse

      • Kulafarmer says:

        They better put it under ground then, because if its above anyone living within 20 miles of those storage tanks better think of moving,,,m

      • Sharon says:

        Wondering if the national strategic reserves that were used several times to control prices have been fully replenished to maximum capacity?

        If not, they should be.

        If they have, this might be a good time to consider expanding their size, maybe doubling it, against future disruptions in world supply. Better to buy it now at the cheap and keep the industry pumping than try to play catch up later as the industry reduces excess production to demand.

      • PO'd Patriot says:

        Zactly RMG! That’s why I’m filling barrels with diesel.

  20. Ass hat says:

    Have to disagree Sharon about younger black men being disadvantaged. This plays into racial inequality. I’m afraid you are wrong about this. The problem younger black males face is lack of education skills. Businesses are not in business to give anyone a job. It’s up to you to have something to offer them for their business the reward for this is employment and benefits packages. I would hire anyone that has the abilities to do what I’m hiring for. This is right for company’s to do and not racial inequality. When Henry ford opened his first auto assembly line the white folks were mad that the blacks were getting paid the same Henry ford said to them they are doing the same job as you why shouldn’t they get the same pay. I agree with him on this. It’s fair and right. The men have family’s to provide for and they are no less human either. If they didn’t have the skills to do the job and didn’t get hired in the first place it’s not discrimination. It’s not companies responsibility to train folks. It’s your job to complete a training program or get a degree. This shows you are not a lazy ignorant person. Being successful in business means being able to operate and make a profit. I’m a Middle Aged worker myself and I’m definetly not where I should be financially but I don’t feel I was treated unfairly. I make more$ now than ever in my life I got training worked for less$ for 5 years. Believe me I went without my family did too. I know poverty got tired of living that way did what was it took to get out of it. Everybody has to do it. I work with guys that have multiple degrees and I don’t have one. We make the same $ too. A college degree is definetly overrated. If it’s what you insist on doing just do it. Oh I’m a freight man trucker for a major motor carrier by the way. There is more freight than trucks trailers and drivers can service right now. I have been doing this for over 17 years so I know the game well. I get 60 hours a week 20 of overtime look at hours of service logbook rules for drivers. I don’t want to be a work this much. But it’s nature of job. They would keep me longer but DOT rules say I have to have ten hours reset before I come back on duty. This is done for highway safety. Can’t have tired drivers operating trucks. Not safe. All truckers know the rules. Back some years drivers would run two log books so they could keep working. This is illegal. The freight logistics business is more complicated than the author of this clip knows. When you write a story like this consider that people may be in logistics and may call you out. Worked as a petroleum operating engineer to. Don’t know as much about that business though. The problem is no major investment in the logistical infrastructure fleets are old too small freight barns need tracking technology upgrades all of which cost $ they don’t want to invest. Stricter emission standards for Diesel engines make truck replacement costs higher multiply that by how many need replacement plus extra for business expansion. It’s not cheap to buy 300 gallons of diesel to fill a truck. It’s like merging five lanes of traffic into one and wondering why there are delays.

  21. I am sad today folks, I am sad because of the fact that I try to warn people about what is comming to our great nation and they all think that I’m crazy they are all stuck in the dream of prosperity, what do we do , do we let them die, do we try to warn them more, what do we do, those are our loved ones, brothers, sisters, family. I am ready for whatever hapens siritualy and preps, I just wish everyone in our country would realize what most of us here have realized a long time ago, you all have opened my eyes to a lot of the situations going on and I thank you all from the bottom of my heart

  22. aljamo says:

    Rocky Mountain Ghost… Oh did they raise the gas tax fifty cents per gallon? I don’t think so, more like predatory capitalism, the name of the game across the board in present day America. If one defends the fossil fuel gougers and polluters, I figure they somehow profit by association with the industry.

  23. AnneMarie says:

    I’ve been following “doomsayers” for 40 years. Back then they knew “it” was coming but didn’t have the final details. Well, it is now over, the result of greed and financial shenanigans is horrendous, plus the sufferings to come when it finally collapses truly defy description. Rob Kirby has just said that the world is headed for a meat grinder, and he is spot on.

    Oh, and this will not take years, we are definitely in the end game, they can’t keep this up much longer unless they come up with more schemes and more debt, which will just make things even worse.

  24. vtfree2 says:

    “A man of freewill uses it as needed”
    vtfree

  25. crowman says:

    amerika is blessed…and blesses israel?
    blessed for murdering innocents and helping others murder and maim innocents…..

    I am confused….you see this in the bible?

  26. “Corporations and governments only do two things relatively well — lying and stealing.”

    Oh, Brandon! Come on! Surely “murder” is in the “relatively well” list for governments and corporations.

    😉

    1. Lie
    2. Steal
    3. Murder

    The only three activities of government. Everything is accomplished through these avenues of action. In most cases at least two of these three are used. In many cases, all three.

    We are coming to a time when this will be very apparent. Stay sharp. You’ll need to so you can survive.

  27. Klemens says:

    Unveiled: The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion

    by Robin de Ruiter
    – See more at: http://marketingnewauthors.biz/unveiled-the-protocols-of-the-learned-elders-of-zion/#sthash.gQqU38Ku.dpuf

    this book explains very good, what is going on in today world! It is a big plan behind!

  28. God's Cremation says:

    Does this little tough talking guy ever stop? The sky is always falling! It’s always right around the corner! I have been hearing this crap from this guy for 5 years. But he’s ready! He’s a trained sniper and he will drop you if you come within 50 yards of his double secret lair. He’s friends with all the big name preppers too and he knows best! He and Dave Hodges should shack up and compare doom and gloom stories. Try and out gloom each other. I grow weary of this crap. While everyone should prepare and have a plan and be aware of their surroundings during a crisis, I think the best plan of action is to work with your neighbors and local communities. How else are we going to go thru this change? Is everyone going to hole up in their bunkers and blast anyone who comes near it? I just grow tired of the bunker mentality and the gloom and doom prophets. Plenty of posters share the same outlook. I often think these jackals want this country to implode. They want they world to implode. How are they any different then the cabal that runs this planet? If the inevitable ever happens then I think these guys like Smith and Hodges would turn into warlords. JMHO.

    • Brandon Smith says:

      Do you have any evidence that contradicts the information given in the article (show me how the economy is improving rather than devolving), or do you prefer to bitch like an angry little woman about me, someone you have never met and know nothing about personally? It’s actually rather pathetic and strange.

      I’ve only provided the facts. If you interpret that as “doom and gloom” then why don’t you do like most Americans and simply ignore reality? Let us “warlords” do our jobs, eh. Shut up and sit on the sidelines while the rest of us actually participate in how the future takes shape.

  29. Anonymous says:

    The BDI is not a good indicator of economic prosperity or decline. Go out and do your own fact finding. Every written word has an agenda…and every chart means different things depending on interpretation. Its good you’re all staying informed…or attempting to. I research the source, accuracy, and subliminal intent of anything I read regardless if its printed here or comes out of Obama’s fantasy land.