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    Silver

    Delinquent Debt At Levels Worse Than 2008: “Exact Same Thing Is Happening Again”

    Michael Snyder
    May 23rd, 2016
    Economic Collapse Blog
    Comments (48)
    Read by 8,367 people

    arrest-bankers

    This article was written by Michael Snyder and originally published at his Economic Collapse Blog.

    Editor’s Comment: It is clear that things are nothing more than a house of cards. There was no financial recovery, the banks are bigger and more powerful than ever, and the stability of average people continues to slip away. The biggest problems surrounding 2008 are happening all over again… they let it happen.

    Why are the banks not being prosecuted criminally and broken up? Oh yeah, Justice Dept. people like Eric Holder leave their government jobs to work for the banks… they are too big to jail because they are the true owners.

    Hold on to whatever you’ve got.

    Business Debt Delinquencies Are Now Higher Than When Lehman Brothers Collapsed In 2008

    by Michael Snyder

    You are about to see more very clear evidence that a new economic crisis has already begun.  During economic recoveries, business debt delinquencies generally fall, and during times of economic recession business debt delinquencies generally rise.  In fact, you will see below that business debt delinquencies shot up dramatically just prior to the last two recessions, and the exact same thing is happening again right now.  In 2008, business debt delinquencies increased at a very frightening pace just before Lehman Brothers collapsed, and this was a very clear sign that big trouble was ahead.  Unfortunately for us, in 2016 business debt delinquencies have already shot up above the level they were sitting at just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and every time debt delinquencies have ever gotten this high the U.S. economy has always fallen into recession.

    In article after article, I have shown that key indicators for the U.S. economy started falling in either late 2014 or at some point during 2015.  Well, business debt delinquencies are another example of this phenomenon.  According to Wolf Richter, business debt delinquencies have shot up an astounding 137 percent since the fourth quarter of 2014…

    Delinquencies of commercial and industrial loans at all banks, after hitting a low point in Q4 2014 of $11.7 billion, have begun to balloon (they’re delinquent when they’re 30 days or more past due). Initially, this was due to the oil & gas fiasco, but increasingly it’s due to trouble in many other sectors, including retail.

    Between Q4 2014 and Q1 2016, delinquencies spiked 137% to $27.8 billion.

    And we never see this kind of rise unless the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.  Here is more from Wolf Richter

    Note how, in this chart by the Board of Governors of the Fed, delinquencies of C&I loans start rising before recessions (shaded areas). I added the red marks to point out where we stand in relationship to the Lehman moment:

    Delinquencies-commercial-industrial-loans-2016-q1

    Business loan delinquencies are a leading indicator of big economic trouble.

    To me, this couldn’t be any clearer.

    Just like the U.S. government and just like U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses are absolutely drowning in debt.

    In fact, a report that was just released found that debt at U.S. companies has been growing at a pace that is 50 times faster than the rate that cash has been growing.

    Just imagine what it would mean for your family if your debt was growing 50 times faster than your bank account.  Needless to say, this is an extremely troubling development

    Well, American companies may just have a mountain’s worth of problems, according to a new report from Andrew Chang and David Tesher of S&P Global Ratings.

    “At the same time, the imbalance between cash and debt outstanding we reported on last year has gotten even worse: Debt outstanding increased 50x that of cash in 2015,” wrote Chang and Tesher.

    “Total debt rose by roughly $850 billion to $6.6 trillion last year, dwarfing the 1% cash growth ($17 billion).”

    And the really bad news is that banks all across the country are starting to tighten credit to businesses.

    In other words, they are beginning to become much more reluctant to loan money to businesses because debts are going bad at such an alarming rate.

    When the flow of credit to the business community starts to slow down, it is inevitable that the overall economy slows down as well.  It is just basic economics.  So the deterioration of the U.S. economy that we have witnessed so far is just the beginning of a process that is going to take quite a while to play out.

    And let us not forget that most of the rest of the world is already is much worse shape than we are.  Most global financial markets are officially in bear market territory right now, and some nations are already experiencing full-blown economic depression.

    Now that the early chapters of the “next crisis” are here, most American families find themselves ill-equipped to deal with another major downturn.  In fact, USA Today is reporting that approximately two-thirds of the country is currently living paycheck to paycheck…

    Two-thirds of Americans would have difficulty coming up with the money to cover a $1,000 emergency, according to an exclusive poll, a signal that despite years after the Great Recession, Americans’ finances remain precarious as ever.

    These difficulties span all incomes, according to the poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Three-quarters of people in households making less than $50,000 a year and two-thirds of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 would have difficulty coming up with $1,000 to cover an unexpected bill.

    What are these people going to do when they lose their jobs or their businesses go under?

    If you have any doubt that the U.S. economy is already in recession mode, just look at this chart over and over.

    For months, I have been warning that the same patterns that immediately preceded previous recessions were happening once again, and this rise in debt delinquencies is another striking example of this phenomenon.

    This stuff isn’t complicated.  Anyone that is willing to be honest with themselves should be able to see it.  As a society, we have been making very, very bad decisions for a very, very long period of time, and what we are watching unfold right now are the inevitable consequences of those decisions.

    *About the author: Michael Snyder is the founder and publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog. Michael’s controversial new book about Bible prophecy entitled “The Rapture Verdict” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

    Click here to subscribe: Join over one million monthly readers and receive breaking news, strategies, ideas and commentary.
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    Please Spread The Word And Share This Post

    Author: Michael Snyder
    Views: Read by 8,367 people
    Date: May 23rd, 2016
    Website: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/business-debt-delinquencies-are-now-higher-than-when-lehman-brothers-collapsed-in-2008

    Copyright Information: This content has been contributed to SHTFplan by a third-party or has been republished with permission from the author. Please contact the author directly for republishing information.

    48 Comments...

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    1. Observer says:

      Don’t know when it’s going to pop, but when it does, don’t forget to duck.

    2. KY Mom says:

      We’re In The Eye Of A Global Financial Hurricane

      “The global financial system is in the eye of an unprecedented hurricane.

      While central bankers are congratulating themselves on their god-like mastery of Nature, …

      the inevitable consequence of borrowing from the future, the obsession with “growth” at any cost and financialization / monetary stimulus, a.k.a. the rich get richer thanks to central banks is systemic collapse.”

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-23/were-eye-global-financial-hurricane

    3. Whatever Works says:

      Coming soon to a community near you…..

    4. American People did not create this debt. Obama and Congress did. I also think everyone on wall street should be audit and each person start paying their fair taxes.

      • Enemy of the State says:

        I think a bit differently
        I think EVERYONE should stop all payments to the government, any payments of any kind

        They have proven themselves unethical, subjugating worthless assholes with nothing in mind but absolute control over every aspect of our lives and our tax dollars are funding all of this tyranny

        If we truly want this country and the form of government we were promised (a Republic)
        Than we need to starve this bitch til it dies

      • Meltonmark says:

        Tell that to the Greeks. Most of their national debt was incurred by the speculators on Wall St and the FTSE. When the crunch came, the response was the usual ‘Privatize the profits. Socialize the losses’ backed by the inevitable propaganda blitz by the Zionist controlled media [Yes I know. Zionists control the banking cartel too.]

    5. Menzoberranzan says:

      I know a couple business that rely heavily on ‘pay day loans.’ Just on a much larger scale than an individual would use. These places are on the road to oblivion. Not to mention what will happen to their employees when there is no more job.

    6. John Parker says:

      So you have to ask yourself, “Are you ready?”
      Are you REALLY ready?
      If not, Who are you going to blame?
      You and Yours will be suffering the consequences of Your inaction.

    7. This is just the continuation of the 2008 collapse. Glad it slowed down so I could get better situated. I have changed my life in the past 8 years. Started building my skills and preps. Hope it is enough. Get out of the cities, folks. I wish I were farther out.

      • john stiner says:

        You said a lot in just a couple of sentences. Stay away from crowds.

        One thing i thought was interesting about what is going on in Venezuela is that the people have run out of rice.

        Rice is one thing I have a number of five gallon buckets of.

        They must be in amazingly deep shit if they don’t have rice.

    8. Braveheart1776 says:

      SNYDER again? HO HUM. I’m going back to sleep.

      • pvt. mushroom says:

        Better wake up. That delinquency chart ain’t Snyder………!

      • Gonetoolong says:

        Agree mostly about Snyder, but you have to admit it is an interesting data point to ponder. I own a business and I looked at refinancing some debt a couple of years ago. The banks would not do it. Wells and BofA both declined. 5 years ago they would give a monkey $1000 for a lemonade stand. You could tell that they were starting to worry about this day that is now upon us.

    9. Tom T says:

      We went over the fiscal cliff in 2008 the only problem is that no one noticed because the Feds bailed out companies instead of letting the market correct. We just haven’t hit the ground yet.

    10. TheGuy says:

      The TRUTH IS *fill in blank*

      Here is a list of X things that PROVES UNEQUIVOCALLY *fill in blank*

      1. …

      I will say his writing style is… getting… well old.

    11. Too bad Germany lost their struggle against the Zionist Banksters.

    12. I would rather be insulted by the bankers when they can no longer rob me than to be praised by them because I allow them to rob, steal, and plunder me.

      Not the exact words of Hitler but close.

    13. aljamo says:

      Yet people are still buying expensive new cars, the cheapest ones are about 15 grand, that being the garbage junk for the poorer peeps from lower slobovia. What kind of failed monetary system lasts when profit has to increase constantly?

      • john stiner says:

        I don’t know why people would buy a new car anyway. Even Warren Buffett drives an old piece of shit. A 1998 Suburban. He said that they loose value so quickly it is a total waste of money.

        But then again, some people are very vein about their cars and keeping up appearances.

      • Braveheart1776 says:

        Aljamo, in Feb. I bought a 2000 Honda Odyssey minivan from the original owner for only $1800 CASH. Never had a car note and never will. the most I’ve ever paid for any vehicle was $3000 and that was back in 1998. Only insurance I have is liability which is all that’s legally required in my state anyway. I wouldn’t even pay 15 grand for something.

      • Archivist says:

        I’m currently driving a 1992 Ranger. It runs like new except the transmission acts up when it’s cold. I bought it at a yard sale almost 20 years ago.

    14. Doom dollar says:

      Still waiting on Snyder’s 2015 collapse to happen. Snyder=0 credibility.

    15. Bill in VA says:

      I consider myself very fortunate, I’ve had different jobs but with the same company since 1980, they even paid for my degree. I have zero debt, no car loans, no mortgage, don’t owe anyone anything. I worked hard and always counted my blessings.
      But, however, all is not well. I believe we will see retirement/pension/investments plans being confiscated by government due to crushing debt, or by banks using bail-ins to cover their massive debts. The legal machinery to allow this now exists. In some situations, the gov’t and banks may legally assume your money is their money, and the power of the state says so. It will be under some guise like “for the public good” or “in the national interest.”
      IRA’s, 401’s, and all the varieties of of investment accounts and tax deferred accounts were not really meant for the middle class. The government was convinced by the Wall Street people to allow these type of accounts to create a vast pool of capital that could be used for business investments thereby growing the economy and creating jobs. Now that is not what is happening; all what is really occurring is this pool of money is just going around and around in the financial markets, just shuffling paper (actually just gambling with it). Not really being used to create jobs or tangible assets (like factories, plants, public works projects, infrastructure, etc.).
      The financial situation in the US is extremely dire; I am trying to avoid hyperbole but we are currently at a catastrophic point. The debt, public and private is so staggering that few truly grasp the real magnitude. It is so bad that all historical and conventional solutions are no longer available or are able to resolve our problems. There are two, AND ONLY TWO options remaining; either all or a great part of the combined debt is repudiated, or print money on a scale that would be ruinous. Either one of these will cause chaos and upheaval. What we will definitely see, sooner or later, is default. There is just NO WAY the debt will be paid nor can it ever. To say it simply, the Fed loans money to the gov’t so it can pay it’s bills, but even if it borrowed the amount necessary to do that, it would require a greater sum because they would have to pay back that greater amount plus interest, only having to repeat it again and again. Therefore factually, to pay off all debt would completely dry up every last dollar in existence. It now has no choice to but to keep growing until the sheer ability to sustains it collapses.
      TPTB are counting on the general ignorance of the people, and their propaganda puppets are being used to maintain the ignorance. When it all comes down the ones who are affected the most will be the last to know. I am not a financial expert, but maybe the best thing an investor can probably do now is to get their money even if there is a penalty.

      • I wonder often if it is true that we are not EVEN able to come close to paying the interest, FORGET the debt.
        And, did they use our Tax Dollars to bail out the banks and to show their appreciation the banks hiked our interest rates immediately?
        I believe that’s correct …or it may have been more media-lies.

    16. The modern system is based on debt. ALL credit is brought into existence as a loan. All of it.

      Money is debt. It is how it is set up. The banks create loans and give you a check. Out of thin air. They don’t use deposits as a loan base. They conjure it up. Hocus Pocus.

      BUT…they don’t create the usury they charge when they create the loan, just the principle. Someone else needs to get a loan in order to create the compound usury to pay back.

      And on and on it goes until the world is peaked out on debt. It’s an exponential function. The graph of the M2 money supply looks like a contrail from a Saturn 5…straight up.

      The money supply used to be correlated to the gold supply until the 1970s…now it has no concrete limits.

      Cancel debts? Have a jubilee? Just remember, if all the debts are cancelled there is no money left. When a debt is also an asset on the books, they both are destroyed. Could be that asset is in your pension fund or your 401k. Or held by the bank where your CD is.

      Face it, there is little that can be done to save this financial system that has it’s foot on your neck and a .gov full of costumed enforcers that would just as soon kill you if you don’t pay your debts and taxes. It is what they do. They are “doin’ their job”. They don’t care about you.

      Get out of debt and as self sufficient as possible. Billions of unfunded liabilities will be liquidated in the coming years. Try not to be one of them.

      regards

      • Kevin2 says:

        JRS

        Well written, good sound advice.

      • Perhaps all is (or will be) as you say. However, if it falls down the tubes in such a way, nobody is going to be going door-to-door seeking restitution (they’ll just be closed and nonexistent).

        In fact, there are JUST AS MANY SAYING TO GET INTO DEBT as much as you can ….because before you know it there won’t be a single creditor out there remaining in business. (They also noted to ‘steer clear’ of major agencies like Bank of A, Cap 1, et al), and do it via Credit Unions and home town ‘small’ institutions (which are already hard hit and struggling no differently than 2/3rds of America …because that is who they are doing biz with.
        Can’t get blood out of a turnip….

    17. Warchild Dammit! says:

      JRS,one can also argue say build up a lot of debt for say more preps/tools ect.This is not a path I am on as a bit of a nomad and thus can only own so much,but do see that you will not get your SS/pension ect.,so,fuck,get what you need now and thus though debts owed to you paid back.Asit really defaults debt collectors will be a thing of the past,whether they survive or not!

      Obviously,have little in banks ect. as always,havevalue stored in your hands,can be taken but folks will need to fight you and die for it before taken,unlike the stroke of a keyboard ect.

    18. Kevin2 says:

      Florida is terrific pickings for great used cars. There are lots of older people in their 80s and above that took care of their stuff. They pass on an their kids inherit everything. Newly “rich” they don’t want that unfashionable 2005 creampuff that was garage kept and driven like old people do. Your choices are generally Ford and Mercury full size and $3000 gets you a ride with 75,000 miles. Run it 50k, sell it for $1500, It cost you 3 cents a mile in depreciation and a parking ding from a grocery cart or adjacent car door, you just shrug your shoulders.

    19. Plan twice, prep once says:

      As impressive as this crash is building up to be, I’m also so impressed by the “Olympic Can Kicking” new world records the powers that shouldn’t be achieve.

    20. jpl_texas says:

      Who is buying out there besides the government subsidies? What market is there for America to sell to? What is the revenue source? How can they issue new loans with no real forecasts? Ever have the misfortune of watching someone die; those final gasps for breath?

    21. Asshat says:

      Do like trump does run up debts and then negotiate a deal to settle with the bank for less than you would’ve doing the right thing and paying the agreed amount. That’s how you do it son. I made my fortune this way. Stick with me I will show you how it’s done. Fuck the banks back people. I had an outstanding debt with a local fitness club. They lied to me so I said fuck them I’m not paying. They threatened to report it to the credit bureau. Fine by me whatever. They sold the debt to a collection agency. This is when I could’ve negotiated a deal to pay but much less to settle the debt. I never did and after 8 years the statute of limitations ran out so I’m free from it. They still send mail sayin I can settle with them it’s been 10 plus years. They think I’m stupid and gonna give them $ hell no they can’t do shit anymore. Funny it’s the only thing I’ve defaulted on and hasn’t damaged my credit. I don’t use credit anyhow. I got my own funds. I’m not giving them $ to borrow $ I don’t need. They are stupid smarten up. They gotta get my employer to pay me less to get me to borrow and even then I won’t take their $. It’s simple get your own $ and you don’t need the banks. just gotta find the loophole and exploit it. This is how people become rich. It’s pushed as a a scumbag thing to do. But it is the right thing to do for yourself. The bank wants you $ they don’t know what you have realistically. You could keep enough in the bank to cash your checks and stash the $. All they have a record of is you cashing your check every week. You could’ve smoked it up or gambled it away for all they know. I’d say I gambled it away. The $ could resurface to pay some debts that were settled for half. This works for stuff like gym memberships because they can’t take it away like a car or other physical items. Plus to take something away is a process for them. If it’s a car boat rv motorcycle or house they will come for it sooner or later. The cheap crap you charged to the card they do not want. They want to recoup their losses and will settle for less if they can get something out of you. not long ago the state had a program to settle outstanding tax debts for less. All people had to do is talk with tax man and work a deal. So bottom line everyone who paid their taxes in full and on time got fucked. Holding out is the way to go they just want any$ they can get now.

      • jpl_texas says:

        Asshat: are you one of my relatives? They go around stiffing people all the time. I keep watch’em, but not ready to follow yet. I don’t like to move around that much.

    22. Asshat says:

      I’ve bought 4 new cars in my lifetime. It’s not a waste $. I will tell you why. It’s new and there are lemon laws. It’s warranteed so if anything major fails in the warranty period they own the repairs. A huge bonus. It will pass inspection for years to come. Buying the fully loaded model is a ripoff. Buying exactly what you need isn’t. If you need a truck for work buy a basic work model not the premium. The basic truck still hauls your materials and tools. Problem is people go into dealers and they only have the premium models on the lot. Tell them you don’t want that. They can get you what you want easily. They just want to sell the most expensive models because they can make much more. A base f150 is $25,000 a platinum is $60’000 both do the same thing haul your shit. You don’t need 4 wd it’s nice but bumps up the price. It snows a lot around here and I’ve never wished I got 4wd. Learn how to drive. A new vehicle is a new vehicle. Not a 20 year old car. It sucks to pay for years but new is peace of mind. It’s just can you afford it. It’s not a bad idea. I wouldn’t do it for investment reasons. if you drop $1800 into a $3000 vehicle you still have a $3000 dollar vehicle. This is what a bad investment looks like to me. $4800 into a new vehicle is a better investment. I put $1000 into my truck I still think it was a bad investment but I’m trying to hold off on buying a new vehicle. It’s not worth more $ cause I dropped $ into it. 2004 was 11 years ago that is old for a vehicle. Your wasting your $ on any vehicle better to have new if you can swing payments .

    23. Old Guy says:

      we are debt free. and have been for many years. No one put a gun to anyones head and made them borrow money or get in debt. Its their debt they should be made accountable. No debts should be canceled.

    24. guns-water-food-shelter and an ability to impart deadly force on a human being who has been indoctrinated into this sheeple mindset that this NON-government will take care of them no matter what. How sad it is to think that you and I, American patriots, who know what is really going on, in as much as we would like to think we do, have to ponder taking the lives of our supposed fellow Americans to protect that which we have prepared for. My own family members are SHEEPLE along with the extended family and they are as guilty as the majority of Americans who just don’t get it! Empty bellies are the catalyst for unhinged chaos the likes this society has not seen since………………maybe the day after tomorrow. I don’t look forward to the endeavors I my be required to take on. I only hope that the suffering is kept to a minimum for all those who have chosen to ignore history and that which is right in front of them.JCM

    25. watching and waiting says:

      Regardless.

      Everyone will get stung in the forthcoming crash in some degree.
      How, significant, depends on you.

    26. Kevin2 says:

      Off Topic

      Just watched TV “news”. The President justifying TPP said, “They can buy our goods”.

      Same line used for NAFTA and China Free Trade.

      Aerosmith, “Same Old Song And Dance”.

      • The way federal laws have been designed, even if THE POTUS does NOT get paid, due to the lack of money, would you believe that all 100% disabled veterans (service-connected or receiving A&A only), will STILL continue to get their benefits?

        If I am incorrect, something changed since that first came out (when I was active-duty). If this IS correct, then there is a ‘fund’ of ‘substantial proportions’ tucked away somewhere in this mess.

        I’ve a tendency to believe they’ll keep printing and kick the can down the road (maybe in an effort to curtail a revolution or another Venezuela scenario)? I dunno…

    27. Observer says:

      Interesting stuff. What does this mean? 1 trillion dollars in sub-prime auto loans, 1 trillion dollars in outstanding student loans (with no job opportunities in the US), And the Feds are allowing mortgage applicants to use their extended families’ income as the basis for loan approval. What could possibly go wrong in the near future? What, I ask you, what?

     
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