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Birth Pangs of the Next Depression: “If the Price of Oil Stays at This Level, We’re Going to Have a Total Financial Nightmare…”

Michael Snyder
January 30th, 2015
Economic Collapse Blog
Comments (147)
Read by 11,659 people

Global Collapse

This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at his Economic Collapse Blog.

Editor’s Note: As we are all entangled in a larger global economy at this point, the globe is collectively headed down a path together. Like it or not – and many of us do not – it is too late to recognize that it was bad idea. We have passed countless economic signposts all signaling that a dangerous stretch of road lies ahead. Michael Snyder lays out a few in this article, and has named hundreds of these factors in recent articles. The Fed’s printing press has been used as a sump pump to artificially keep us from drowning, but there are limits.

The falling oil prices is crippling Russia, and looms heavily over the U.S. and much of the rest of the world as well. It is no exaggeration to say that currencies throughout the globe are in complete turmoil, are vulnerable, and – as in the case of the euro – could very possibly collapse. New currency platforms have been developed and may rise in the aftermath. But something is happening, and the potential for it to take everyone down with it is serious enough.

As Snyder notes, this is a long-term situation, and may be played out of many, many chess moves, but it carries with it great significance. Only time will tell if the crisis is averted, masked, or just delayed.

The quote at the bottom of the article is worth repeating, and presenting first: that our dear leaders have ALREADY been using all their fire power to keep the illusion going, and it is questionable at best how long this can really keep up. Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey writes:

“My point is that we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09,” he writes, “so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World Effects. This is the heart of the message. If economic activity far from picks up, but falters, then there will be a painful round of debt default.”

Birth Pangs Of The Coming Great Depression

The signs of the times are everywhere – all you have to do is open up your eyes and look at them.  When a pregnant woman first goes into labor, the birth pangs are usually fairly moderate and are not that close together.  But as the time for delivery approaches, they become much more frequent and much more intense.  Economically, what we are experiencing right now are birth pangs of the coming Great Depression.  As we get closer to the crisis that is looming on the horizon, they will become even more powerful.  This week, we learned that the Baltic Dry Index has fallen to the lowest level that we have seen in 29 years.  The Baltic Dry Index also crashed during the financial collapse of 2008, but right now it is already lower than it was at any point during the last financial crisis.  In addition, “Dr. Copper” and other industrial commodities continue to plunge.  This almost always happens before we enter an economic downturn.  Meanwhile, as I mentioned the other day, orders for durable goods are declining.  This is also a traditional indicator that a recession is approaching.  The warning signs are there – we just have to be open to what they are telling us.

And of course there are so many more parallels between past economic downturns and what is happening right now.

For example, volatility has returned to the markets in a big way.  On Tuesday the Dow was down about 300 points, on Wednesday it was down another couple hundred points, and then on Thursday it was up a couple hundred points.

This is precisely how markets behave just before they crash.  When markets are calm, they tend to go up.  When markets get really choppy and start behaving erratically, that tells us that a big move down is usually coming.

At the same time, almost every major global currency is imploding.  For much more on this, see the amazing charts in this article.

In particular, I am greatly concerned about the collapse of the euro.  The Swiss would not have decoupled their currency from the euro if it was healthy.  And political events in Greece are certainly not going to help things either.  Economic conditions across Europe just continue to get worse, and the future of the eurozone itself is very much in doubt at this point.  And if the eurozone does break up, a European economic depression is almost virtually assured – at least in the short term.

And I haven’t even mentioned the oil crash yet.

There is only one other time in all of history when the price of oil collapsed by more than 60 dollars, and that was just prior to the horrific financial crisis of 2008.

Since the last financial crisis, the oil industry has been a huge source for job growth in this country.  The following is an excerpt from a recent CNN article

The oil sector has added over a half million jobs — many of them high paying — since the recession ended in June 2009. That’s 13% of all US job growth over that period.

Now energy companies and related sectors are laying off thousands. Expect that trend to continue, bears say.

But losing good jobs is just the tip of the iceberg of this oil crisis.

At this point, the price of oil has already dropped to a catastrophically low level.  The longer it stays at this level, the more damage that it is going to do.  If the price of oil stays at this level for all of 2015, we are going to have a complete and total financial nightmare on our hands

For the first time in 18 years, oil exporters are pulling liquidity out of world markets rather than putting money in. The world is now fast approaching a world reserve currency shift. If we see 8 to 12 months at these oil prices; U.S. shale industry will be wiped out. The effect on junk bonds will cascade to the rest of the stock market and U.S. economy.

…and this time there will be nothing left to catch the falling knife before it hits the American economy right in the heart. Not the FED nor the U.S. government can stop what’s coming. Liquidity will freeze up, our credit will be downgraded, the stock market will start to collapse, and then we can expect the FED to come in and hyper-inflate the dollar. This will cause the world to finish abandoning the world reserve currency in the last rungs of trade. This will be the end of the petrodollar.

Something that I have not discussed so far this year is the looming crisis in emerging market debt.

As economic problems spread around the world, a number of “emerging markets” are in danger of having their debt downgraded.  And many investment funds have rules that prohibit them from holding any debt that is not “investment grade”.  Therefore, we could potentially see some of these giant funds dumping massive amounts of emerging market debt if downgrades happen.

This is a really big deal.  As a Business Insider article recently detailed, we could be talking about hundreds of billions of dollars…

Russia this week became the first of the major economies to lose its investment grade status from Standard & Poor’s, falling out off the top ratings category for credits deemed to have a low risk of default for the first time in a decade.

If Moody’s and Fitch follow, conservative investors barred from owning junk securities must sell their holdings. JPMorgan estimates this means they may ditch $6 billion in Russian government rouble and dollar debt.

Russia may have company. Almost $260 billion worth of sovereign and corporate bonds – nearly a tenth of outstanding emerging market (EM) debt – is in danger of being relegated to junk, according to David Spegel, head of emerging debt at BNP Paribas, who calls such credits “falling angels”.

And no article of this nature would be complete without mentioning derivatives.

I could not possibly overemphasize the danger that the 700 trillion dollar derivatives bubble poses to the global financial system.

As we enter the coming Great Depression, derivatives are going to play a starring role.  Wall Street has been pumped full of funny money by global central banks, and our financial markets have been transformed into the greatest casino in the history of the world.  When this house of cards comes crashing down, and it will, it is going to be a financial disaster unlike anything that the planet has ever seen.

And yes, global central banks are very much responsible for setting the stage for what we are about to experience.

I really like the way that David Stockman put it the other day…

The global financial system is literally booby-trapped with accidents waiting to happen owing to six consecutive years of massive money printing by nearly every central bank in the world.

Over that span, the collective balance sheet of the major central banks has soared by nearly $11 trillion, meaning that honest price discovery has been virtually destroyed. This massive “bid” for existing financial assets based on credit confected from thin air drove long-term bond yields to rock bottom levels not seen in 600 years since the Black Plague; and pinned money market costs at zero—-for 73 months running.

What is the consequence of this drastic financial repression along the entire yield curve? The answer is bond prices which keep rising regardless of credit risk, inflation or taxes; and rampant carry trade speculation that can’t get out of its own way because  central banks have made the financial gamblers’ cost of goods—the “funding” cost of their trades—-essentially zero.

Of course I am not the only one warning that a new Great Depression is coming.  For instance, just consider what British hedge fund manager Crispin Odey is saying…

British hedge fund manager Crispin Odey thinks we’ve entered an economic downturn that is “likely to be remembered in a hundred years,” and central banks won’t be able to stop it.

In his Odey Asset Management investor letter dated Dec. 31, Odey writes that the shorting opportunity “looks as great as it was in 07/09.”

“My point is that we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09,” he writes, “so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World Effects. This is the heart of the message. If economic activity far from picks up, but falters, then there will be a painful round of debt default.”

Even though most average citizens are completely oblivious to what is happening, many among the elite are heeding the warning signs and are feverishly getting prepared.  As Robert Johnson told a stunned audience at the World Economic Forum the other day, they are “buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand“.  They can see the horrifying storm forming on the horizon and they are preparing to get out while the getting is good.

It can be very frustrating to write about economics, because things in the financial world can take an extended period of time to play out.  Sadly, most people these days have extremely short attention spans.  We live in a world of iPhones, iPads, YouTube videos, Facebook updates and 48 hour news cycles.  People no longer are accustomed to thinking in long-term time frames, and if something does not happen right away we tend to get bored with it.

But the economic world is not like a game of “Angry Birds”.  Rather, it is very much like a game of chess.

And unfortunately for us, checkmate is right around the corner.


beginning-of-the-end-snyderMichael T. Snyder is a graduate of the University of Florida law school and he worked as an attorney in the heart of Washington D.C. for a number of years.

Today, Michael is best known for his work as the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog and The American Dream.

If you want to know what things in America are going to look like in a few years read his new book The Beginning of the End.

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Author: Michael Snyder
Views: Read by 11,659 people
Date: January 30th, 2015
Website: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/birth-pangs-coming-great-depression

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147 Comments...

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  1. Sgt. Dale says:

    If it isn’t oil, it will be food, or water or something causing the crash. Until we figure out it is TPTB, who ever they are doing it so there will be WW#3 to make the population go down. Hells bell it will do it on its own. It is just natural to do so.
    Sgt.

    • Calgagus says:

      No, oil has been king for the middle east. Oil is a resource used for dollar and power control like no other. Dont think thats ever happened w/ food but someone else can chime in w/ their 2 cents.

      Now is the time to make damn sure you got supplies and food stored for a year or more. The longer the better.
      Get your cash out of the bank. Get the retirement funds out if you can.
      Keep prioritizing and organizing. Try to forge alliances w/ neighbors. No one will escape this, not even the rich who think they can hide.

      • John Q. Public says:

        Speaking of oil… keep your lamps trimmed and burning. No man knows the hour.

        • Kulafarmer says:

          Yes, speaking of oil and lamps,,,
          If you have vegetable oil or olive oil etc that goes rancid it can still be used for lamp oil,
          You may need to heat it and strain it if its really turned but should still work, same goes for used fryer oil, might taste bad but will throw light,
          Wicks etccan be had from Lehmans or look online for alternative wicks

      • BigB says:

        My take:

        The two biggest threats to us preppers today is either a solar flare or a financial collapse. Both have a 100% chance of happening. The question is only when, not if.

        BigB

      • Sgt. Dale says:

        Cal.
        We did it with the American Indians. We starved them out. To them it was TEOTWATKI crash.
        How about the Irish potato famine, Their economy crashed.
        That is my 2 cents worth. I hope there are more that I’m not thinking of. Thanks for the come back.
        Sgt.

        • Calgagus says:

          Got it Sgt. I know that food has power and the lack of food kills and destroys. But food aint had the kind of power oil had. Look at the power of OPEC. Cant think of a group that was built around food but there sure are groups built around oil and money. Hopeful that someone who understands these things better can chime in.

          Didnt give you any thumbs one way or the other, just so you know. Looks like the commies already visiting and it aint Friday night yet.

        • The Navigator says:

          Quite right Sgt Dale

          Unless you have heirloom seeds to plant, the 2nd winter will take most preppers. Good you have food to get you and your family thru the 1st winter, but think beyond. And if it never comes, good for all of us – in the meantime, you’ve learned to garden, save seeds, and have non-GMO veggies for you family.

      • Kulafarmer says:

        Even on a tight budget, of course theres extreme cases,
        But if possible at least pick up extra cans of stuff, corned beef, beans, veggies, a couple dozen cans a week or every other week is better than having nothing, even ramen noodles, they are cheap by the case, not the greatest but better than nothing, and thats the idea, good idea to watch for sales on vitamins too, if things are bad and were not eating right, vitamins could be the difference between being healthy or being sick, and i dont mean just a cold!

      • Dog soldier says:

        If you want oil to replace gold as money then peg it to the 1947 price of oil per barrel – 75 cents. .22 cartridges were 10 cents for a box of shorts during the war. Gasoline was 14 cents a gallon and silver was in our coins.
        The commie fdr had confiscated gold at about the time hitler started murdering.

        The rifle is king and you better have one and lots of ammo.

        Prep with your funny money while you still can.
        Semper Fi

    • Justice says:

      Sgt Dale,

      My bet is financial collapse resulting in hyper inflation culminating in WWIII. I am keeping my eyes on the Russian situation and the looming Greek debt default.

      It is this simple: If the system does not somehow purge/clear the debt demand cannot/will not pick back up. The people are broke! The one percent cannot drive the world economy and the Chinese people are not ready or able to take over demand from the western nations (which was the NWO plan).

      • Sgt. Dale says:

        Justice
        Some very good point you bring up there. You are right, it is something to watch.
        Sgt.

        • Justice says:

          Hey Sarge,

          I always appreciate your comments. Thanks!

          • talon1776 says:

            So..nobody is mentioning Yellowstone as the crisis on the front burner…”literally “.
            According to the HAARP REPORT on you tube…those missing nukes from Abilene Texas were used and detonated in a remote location south of Yellowstone to induce an eruption. Whether man made or natural..this event will surpass any financial collapse. If it were to occur…a food crisis would be the optimum, resulting in Mad Max. Think about those millions of starving wanderers who happen to take in a whiff of your grub.
            No amount of gold or silver is going to satisfy this hoard…for those in remote locations with lots of tree cover…that in itself can be a disadvantage.
            I don’t have any answers as to what to do in a financial crisis…can’t buy or sell is where it will be. I hope all that aluminum nano dust spraying hasn’t already poisoned the land, air and water.

            Live Free or Die…just do what you must
            Talon1776

    • Mona Lisa says:

      The world would be a more pleasant place to live if all the poor-n-sickly were killed off.

    • Yes it’s oil no wait it’s subprime no wait it’s the poor or was it the GMO’s in the food chain oh I remember it’s Y2K.Ys it’s oil now that well start WWIII or maybe it’s?

    • Realtime Prep says:

      I will huff and puff till I blow your house down…

      Seriously, oil has finally normalized back to the level it should have been all along. What has screwed us up a little bit is it has taken this long, which in turn has inflated the priced of everything 10 percent. And lets face it, the fact that domestic production is up over 100% (and that is without the pipeline even being approved) has put a serious damper in the shieks of the middle east. As far as the US economy, the battle isn’t with oil prices. It is with the libertards that think driving the minimum wage up to 15 per hour is a good idea! All that does is raise the poverty line up and make the middle class even more poor.

    • bulldog says:

      yes and every politician in D.C. has served the tptb well in robbing the country of everything it has, as long as fools vote for those who have destroyed the country, the pain and suffering will be well deserved

  2. 95ld germank9 says:

    get the popcorn ready

  3. ScoutMotto says:

    Keep getting tose #10 cans of freeze-ried food. Keep filling those water jugs. Keepbuildig up the ammo and medical.

    Tanner Gun Show this weekend in Denver, Co. See ya there!

    • Sgt. Dale says:

      S.M.
      This is good advice.

      I’ve been putting up food in 5 Gal. buckets for the last few days. Just finished filling my 17 bucket with 5 days supply. (breakfast, lunch, supper)

      Also just picked up 6 #10 cans of dried fruit, and 2 #10 cans with dried peanut butter, butter, and 2 #10 cans of eggs to go along with my other dried foods.

      If you been reading my other post you have seen I’ve been hitting the reloading bench really hard. Weathers been crappy so I’ve been hitting It had!
      Sgt.

    • mxdmta4 says:

      I appreciate that you have the ability to buy #10 cans of freeze dried food for yourself. As for me, and many like me, I’ve not worked in 20mos and food stamps are barely enough to feed us a month. I have NOTHING. ALL of my ‘extra’ expenses are long gone and I still can barely get through a month. I cry everyday. One cannot ‘prepare’ without money. I just wish all of you who have so much right now would stop reminding those of us who have nothing how we should prepare – me and mine will starve to death, be murdered, freeze to death, or die from disease.
      I don’t see any advice for those of us who have nothing. You can’t make something from nothing. Maybe it’s for the best – I’l be with Jesus more quickly.
      Don’t mean to be rude but I am weary and sad and worry about being homeless next month. Even my faith is in the dumps. I just thought you all should know that there is real poverty and suffering out here (and I’m a Certified Public Accountant, not a 25 yr old drop out) and every time I see “freeze dried” it is just too much.

      • Sgt. Dale says:

        MX
        I sorry about your lot in life. I was there once and with 4 very young kids. I still prepped. I learned how to dry fruit & veggies, and I had a garden that I did by hand no power tools used.

        I know with food stamps you get to buy canned food, put some of that aside the best you can. Get more beans and rice. When you can. put them in zip lock bags it will help keep it a little longer. Water get some plain bleach. Use that to purify it.

        I see you have computer to use. Learn how to make traps from thing just laying around, a piece of heavy cord or wire can make a snare trap. Learn how to us them and to fix the animal. You can make a solar oven out of two cardboard boxes with a piece of glass over it. You can see how to do this on you tube. They work great and I’ve used it when it was around 45 degrees, It took from 8AM to 5PM to cook the meal but it cooked it.

        Most of my food preps are home grown. The freeze dried stuff is only coming in because the wife and I have been working two and three jobs. I’ve been working at the P.D. the High School and training people how to shoot. My wife has been working at the High School, working on computers and waitress. We even pick up cans along the road also. Two reasons exercise and the cans are worth cash.

        Hang in there, and I know the folks on this site will keep you and your in our prayers!

        Sgt.

        • mxdmta4 says:

          Thant you Sgt for the encouragement and ideas. I’m sorry for the attitude. I’ve just been so depressed and fearful lately. And overwhelmed. I’ve been the woman who could accomplish anything, overcome all obstacles, etc. I covet all of your prayers more than anything because I know in whom I trust, but the fear overwhelms me. Since I’ve never been fearful I find myself in a vicious cycle which is eroding my faith. Again, thank you for your kindness and prayers.

        • mxdmta4 says:

          My first response seems to have disappeared. Sgt thank you and i apologize for being so snarky! I know I’m not alone, I just feel alone, fearful, depressed, etc. I covet all of your prayers here as I know only God can do for me. Thank you again for your kindness and the overlooking of my snarkiness. God bless

          • BigB says:

            Hey MX, you got to keep your head in the game. Keeping a good mental attitude is half of getting anything done. There is an abundance of things you can do to prep. Store water in various containers. Water can be so precious and can be traded for other items. That is just one example. Free Sauces, salt and pepper packets, and whatever you can get from various fast food places can make all the difference in eating a dry bowl of rice and it having some flavor. There are many ways to prep, you just gave to figure out what others would need in a SHTF scenario. A lot of that stuff is pretty much free till it’s not.

            BigB

          • Breathial says:

            BigB is right. Your attitude is EVERYTHING. I’ve been out of work 7 months, just accepted a job that will put us in Cheyenne Wyoming. Gonna be COLD there, but it gets us out of California and makes a good salary.

            Stay TOUGH, DO ***NOT*** GIVE UP. Keep putting your name out for jobs, use LinkedIn to network. This gig happened because I was on an industry forum, started emailing the members, and it just fell together. If you’re a CPA, offer to do taxes for people, check for gigs on Craigslist, think OUTSIDE the box… and it’ll happen.

            Being tough, staying strong for your family, is critically important. And if SHTF before you’re ready with full “preps,” it’s ok; survival will depend far more on your core strength than on gear and other “zombie” crap that stupid people buy.

            Here’s a fact that most people just don’t get: those who are weak in spirit will die, no matter how much they prep. Those who have internal fortitude (sheer determination) will have a chance.

            The other fact is that YOU decide whether you have it or not. It’s a conscious choice, saying “I’m NOT going to quit, no matter WHAT!”

            As bad as it is right now for me and my family, I’ve seen far worse… and all BS aside, that was the choice I made 20 years ago, when I was homeless and slowly starving… I’ve BEEN there, DONE that.

            DON’T GIVE UP. Find your inner stubborn streak, set a realistic goal, and stubbornly stick to it. People often think being stubborn is a weakness; it can be your most powerful weapon!

            Prayers for you.

        • highspeedloafer says:

          I agree sarge, where there is a will, there is a way. I was born to poor parents who taught us to make do. I now am doing well and so are my children, but for a while I did menial labor, no job was too good for me. I remember one night when I was in college years ago,I was scrubbing a toilet with a toothbrush for a cleaning compay. The thought occurred to me that I wouldn’t have to do this forever.

          That was a long time ago, but if I have to do it again tomorrow, I will. I will not quit or cry about my lot in life as long as I have the strength to work. There is no dishonor in hard work.

      • nopittypartyhere says:

        There is.hope, and.there are ways. I’ll reply.in.detail.when I’m.out of work tonight.

      • KY Mom says:

        mxdmta4,

        Many of us (including myself) have been through some difficult times.

        Is there any place nearby where you could grow a garden. If not, do you have a porch or deck where you could put some containers and grow some food. I have used slightly cracked storage containers from an outlet store to grow spinach, onions, lettuce, strawberries and radishes. Five gallon buckets sold at Dollar stores or Walmart also work just fine.

        Is there a food pantry near you? We have food pantries around here and no one is turned away.

        I am praying for you. Don’t give up.
        KY Mom

        • mxdmta4 says:

          Thank you KY Mom. I covet your prayers as my faith is taking a severe pounding. I do have space for a garden and am hoping to have the money to get non-hybrid seeds for the summer. With my undiagnosed illnesses I am praying I’l be physically capable too. 🙂

        • mxdmta4 says:

          I responded but it disappeared. Thank you KY Mom. Please forgive my uncharitable tone. God willing I will be well enough to plant some food this summer. I was too sick last year. I especially appreciate your prayers.

      • FreeSlave says:

        Mxdmta4,

        Can you still prepare tax returns for some money? That’ll help a little.

        • mxdmta4 says:

          I would love to but literally EVERYBODY knows an accountant, has an accountant, or does their own. I couldn’t even get a temp job for tax season this year. The accounting job market is dominated by recruiters too. Thank you for the idea though. I appreciate it. I have med probs so it limits my abilities but in 2010 I was picking raspberries, pulling weeds in gardens, and cleaning any house I could find to pay my rent.

      • Kulafarmer says:

        MXD
        Location?
        Is a bummer for sure, dont dispair! Depending on your location, maybe you can do some trading, what are your abilities? I saw a lady offering to work in trade for canned goods or veggies, i know even for myself, i could trade canned stuff, gasoline and some cash if someone with their head on right came along and needed the help,
        I know you most likely dont want to hear this as it goes without saying, but think creative! Like creative finance, etc, maybe some old folks nearby who could use some help?
        Anywho, sorry things already went south for you, sometimes our faith may be all we have left,

        • mxdmta4 says:

          I live in Northern Illinois. I’m laughing at your “think creative” because when I first started reading your response I thought “if I only had some creativity I would do better”! lol I am very uncreative but a great collaborator! My brain is stereotypical bean counter. I’ve never been entrepreneurial otherwise I’d have my own company. Funny, isn’t it, that I am a top notch CPA and can advise others with their own businesses but I’m lost on how to earn money outside of being hired!?
          I have illnesses that prevent me from moderate physical labor, including standing and walking. Otherwise I’d be begging to clean church members’ houses or whatever.
          Thanks for the encouragement and I’l look for a creative person to help me in the ideas department. God bless.

      • BullzOnParade says:

        Another religious kook putting all his faith in a delusion for things to fall on his lap for doing nothing…

        you too proud to get a shitty regular job like the rest of us? if you are, then keep crying and starving.

        • mxdmta4 says:

          You are a presumptuous butt face. Just because I have a brain and use it, unlike some thick skulled nincompoops, doesn’t mean I haven’t spent most of my life working at ‘regular jobs’ including picking raspberries and pulling peoples’ weeds so I could pay my rent.
          But since I’m a religious kook I’l forgive you, because I love the Lord and He forgives me. I’l even try to pray for you but no promises.

      • ThruthSetsFree says:

        Mx,
        If you have been a CPA, I may have a lead for you. See me at iuser(at)mail(dot)com.
        Remember,
        For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,
        And again,
        Consider it all joy, my brethren, when you encounter various trials, knowing that the testing of your faith produces endurance. And let endurance have its perfect result, so that you may be perfect and complete, lacking in nothing…
        And still yet,
        …we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.
        And yet his memorable promise…
        And lo, I am with you always, even unto the end of the world.

        Remind him of his promises…

  4. Jen in Michigan says:

    Every day, new voices are added to the warning that something is very wrong with the American economy and world economies. Some may be tired of the “same old story” but there’s nothing “same old” about it as new complexities compound the situation. Thankfully, more and more are seeing the signs today.

  5. eppe says:

    Scary thought, is it not?

    • Sgt. Dale says:

      Eppe
      I think it is a scary thought for those not prepping.
      I know for sure you aren’t afraid my friend.
      Is you and yours doing well? (I hope).
      Sgt.

      • eppe says:

        Hanging in there, Happy Birthday to you, hope all is well…

      • Justice says:

        Sgt Dale, I could prep for the rest of my life and not be prepared for what is coming (Something Wicked This Way Comes).

        I have been prepping seriously since 2007 and still have many must have items on my list. Even if I had everything that I wanted heading into this storm, I would still be afraid.

        I have to remember that I cannot save myself, I should/must rely on God. If I have faith in Him I have no fear. May his will be done.

  6. GEO-LITHIC says:

    Good God! How long has everything been falling apart ???

  7. The Prophet says:

    DuPage County gun show this Sunday. 8 AM. Wheaton, Il.

  8. It is called Demand Destruction. Oil is sold on a worldwide market. You need to consider the whole world when looking at oil. Poor countries have virtually dropped out of the oil market. They have no access to credit to buy oil…demand destruction.

    There is no glut. There is only a lack of demand. There is no growth.

    From 2005 to 2013, 4 trillion dollars was spent on exploration and production. And another 3.5 trillion to maintain current legacy oil fields.

    RESULT: Oil production fell by 1 million barrels per day.

    FOR COMPARISON: Between 1998 and 2005, 1.5 trillion was spent and 8.6 million barrels per day was added to global oil production.

    The world is in a deflationary spiral and likely will never recover.

    Peak oil is here.

    • Jonathon says:

      I would be far more concerned with peak food arriving than peak oil.

      I find it more difficult to live without adequate food than adequate oil.

      • I agree.

        But, I’m sure you realize that petroleum is involved in nearly everything produced and transported. From fertilizer to trucking to plastic to bunker fuel for ships.

        When the food can’t get delivered, we better be pretty much self sufficient growing, killing and preserving our own…I’m working hard at it.

        • Dog soldier says:

          JRS, when I was a youngster we killed two hogs every fall, milked a Jersey cow, raised chickens for meat and eggs, kept a pen of rabbits and grew a big garden and we lived in a small town. Dad made a little over a dollar a day when the silver dollar was silver.

          Five months of the year I ran a trap line beginning at age 11. I was really good at trapping rabbits with a box trap. The box trap, for rabbits, if there are rabbits about, is sure fire when baited with grass hay, alfalfa, or scraps of vegetables or an apple core, etc

          I’m an old guy now, but I still do a lot of that stuff, particularly gardening, hunting, reloading brass, shotgun shells and fishing.

          Most folks can prep.
          Semper Fi.

      • Rich98 says:

        JONATHON- problem is that the two go hand in hand. Oil is in everything we consume…… plastics, those sneakers on your feet… everywhere!

      • Richard Head says:

        @johnathon

        Don’t worry peak food would follow peak oil in very short order.

  9. The Prophet says:

    Just checked the baltic dry index and got a shock. It’s at 632. That’s as low as I’ve ever seen it. I hadn’t checked it in a few days because it started to bounce back up off the lows as usual. Not this time. It feel right through the usual lows. The world economy is stopping. War is imminent. Good luck.

    • KY Mom says:

      The Prophet,

      I agree. Most people don’t realize the Baltic Dry Index is an important global economic indicator.

      For anyone new…
      The Baltic Dry Index shows the true strength of the global economy. The Baltic Dry Index is the barometer that gauges the shipping dry bulk commodities around the globe.

      The index numbers for 2014 were bad.
      As of June 2014…
      “had collapsed over 60% year-to-date”

      “worst first-half of the year on record”

      Unfortunately, the Baltic Dry Index numbers in 2015 have fallen even more.

      For comparison…
      May 20, 2008 – The Baltic Dry Index reached 11,793 points.

      The index that timed the 2008 crash perfectly just slumped to a three-decade low

      “It plunged by more than 90% in just a few months in 2008 as the global crisis unrolled.”

      “It has now dropped by more than 50% in less than three months.”

      The index is down 95% since 2008. The Baltic Dry Index NEVER recovered to anywhere close to the levels reached in 2008.

      -Business Insider dot com

      • Rich98 says:

        KYMOM- trouble is I don’t know what to trust anymore. They have everything manipulated and somehow are keeping this show going… how, I have NO clue.
        I don’t understand what all these things mean ( baltic dry index etc) and everyone is pointing to something different saying it signals collapse, bit nothing is happening.

        It’s nuts. I DO NOT want ‘collapse” of ANY kind whether prepared or not, because there are hundreds of million literally that are not, and I am not the kind that would like to sit back and say ‘I told you so” while they all starve.

        I have no answers, except for God.

        • KY Mom says:

          Rich98,

          I don’t think anyone knows what data to trust. We know the government data is manipulated.

          The Baltic Dry Index tracks the shipping of dry bulk commodities. It is not just for one country.

          Most people have never even heard of this index, nor what it refers to. Mainly those reading the financial/economic news seem to be aware of this.

          I don’t have answers. From what I see, the outlook for 2015 does not look encouraging.

          I urge everyone to keep praying and prepping.
          Take care.
          KY Mom

      • SmokinOkie says:

        Howdy KY Mom. Good to see you’re still here and keeping an eye on things. I hadn’t paid much attention to the BDI for a while. I did see a recent outrage in the news though.
        Seems the Little Rock, AR school district has been taken over by the state. Evidently they can’t manage things locally. Things got so bad, they had to implement a dress code. No see thru fabrics, no spandex, and underwear MUST be worn at school. Sadly, the dress code was for the teachers! Seriously…

  10. nlightened2 says:

    “The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.”
    Winston Churchill, prime minister, Great Britain

  11. nlightened2 says:

    “Socialism works! And we will destroy this economy if we have to to prove it!”
    Stupid liberal/Communist.

  12. Harry Hothouse says:

    These policy makers bring in laws to restrict the effects of “global warming” caused by the burning of fossil fuels then crap their pantaloons when the sale of oil drops! Duplicitous morons.

  13. harp1034 says:

    Deflation?? Where? All I see is inflation. Gasoline has already started back up. Gold has been staying just below $1300. I have heard all this end of the world as we know it crap for the past 40 years. Much ado about nothing.

  14. Jonathon says:

    The progression towards a one world financial system will require worldwide financial chaos to usher it in.

    This will probably occur in several phases, regional consolidations leading to more consolidation of the regions as failure continues till eventually there is only one system till there is a single de facto over ruling system everyone must participate in order to do any form of financial activities (such as, say, being paid for your work).

    It will end up being a sort of soft dictatorship arrangement that fully tracks and regulates every aspect of every persons life by what he is allowed to purchase and sell and the manner in which he can do it.

    This is happening now, and the evidence of it is abundant if you simply look for it. Every day in every way more and more things are falling into a system which is tracked and controlled by the various converging financial systems.

    There will be several more world controlling developments occurring either simultaneously or in close conjunction with this that result in military and political systems that are under a single source of rule. This too should be evident to the prudent.

    This is going to happen much sooner than many, maybe most, will know, coming upon us like an armed thief sneaking in during the night to be discovered already in control of our house when the morning comes and we rise to discover him there.

    There will probably be some way to avoid being forced into this system, but it won’t be at all easy or even safe and probably won’t be what people are thinking it will be today. Very few will find it or be able to follow it.

  15. PO'd Patriot says:

    When they start flinging bullets and tossing nukes, then it has started. Until then carry on.

    • PO'd Patriot says:

      BTW, Mitt the Twit just announced that he ain’t runnin’ for POTUS. Liked to have been privy to the conversation at the meeting he had with Jeb Bushwacker. Cheers all, keep your heads up!

      • hammerhead says:

        BYE BYE MITTENS !!!!!
        It really is sad , the only man who could have saved us all , and now he is gone…… (sobs) .

        • Enemy of the State says:

          hey Mitts no better then any of these other paid shills( i liked him so dont get me wrong) ..but trust me if he got in there , he wouldnt be any better..why? cause its not up to them.. Our country is run by the money people .. period , they call the shots for the puppet to push

          • hammerhead says:

            ENEMY-
            My comment was sarc , You are right, he woudnt have been much help either.
            Although i do believe he would have managed our money better , he aint a ‘free shit” kinda guy.
            The country is run buy the money changers , but the POTUS still is allowed to give some direction.
            Mittens is more “socialist light” compared to Obama.

        • SmokinOkie says:

          Mittsy aint running again? Say it isn’t so!
          And now, Rod McKuen is dead? What a depressing day. In honor of McKuen, I humbly submit the following bad poetry–

          America! America! A rudderless ship
          Adrift in a lagoon of sorrows
          There’s nothing cool, and nothing hip
          We’ve spent all of our tomorrows

          There’s crap on the airwaves
          Crap at the movies
          Cass Elliot is dead
          And nothing is groovy

          We long for the days
          Of our oft misspent youth
          Now we’re grey in the hair
          And long in the tooth

          Once was Archie and Betty
          Veronica and Jug
          We’d cruise A&W
          For a cold frosty mug

          We played ‘lectric geetars
          And rode little Hondas
          Got our news from old Cronkite
          Flipped the bird at miss Fonda

          Self righteous and smug
          Didn’t care, didn’t know
          Til somebody sang
          Four dead in Ohio

          But this is America
          Next time we’ll do right
          Just bring on the Bee Gees
          It’s Saturday Night!

          Polyester and disco
          And no time for grief
          Then some little old lady
          Said, ‘Hey! Where’s the beef?’

          Our buns all got bigger
          With nothing between ’em
          Lost and found in America
          Oh say, have you seen ’em?

          But then came the nineties
          Got our heads in a mess
          Stock portfolio is fine
          But there’s a stain on that blue dress

          But we’ve no condemnation
          We’re so tolerant you see
          Get our money for nothing
          And our chicks for free

          Then the too big to fails
          All stood on the brink
          So we ordered a million
          More gallons green ink

          Print our way to nirvana
          It’s easy to do it!
          When the bills all come due
          We’ll just shrug and say screw it!

          On Saturday night
          We’d all paint the town
          Then sit there on pews
          Sunday Morning Coming Down

          Now it’s twitter and tweet
          Smart phones for dumb people
          Fried our brains ‘long the way
          Any wonder we’re sheeple?

          We’ve no values, no morals
          Is it really a mystery?
          Can a people go on
          Who’ve forgotten their history?

  16. Serenabit says:

    The “Perfect Storm” is building into a never before seen scenario. In addition to individual preparedness, it will make local and State governments much more important to rally behind than any federal entity. If smaller community based governments remain strong that will be the only hope to avoid tyrannical “rule” throughout the world.

  17. SmokinOkie says:

    Well, now. Which is it gonna be? Hyper-inflation or a deflationary spiral? Looks like a ‘Heads I win, tails you lose’ scenario. I just wish it wasn’t a gangster banker who was tossing the coin… And make sure it’s a REAL coin. A gold eagle would be nice. Better yet- silver. It has such a sweet sounding ring when it bounces. I love my shiny eagles!
    Tried tossing those crisp $10 bills in #10 cans but they keep denting the linoleum 🙂

  18. Jim in Va. says:

    The dominoes are lined up. Fuel,food,housing,student loan bubble…its gonna hit one after the other. We’re broke folks and those around the planet are in the same boat. Famine and war will result and a drastic lowering of the world population.

    • Jonathon says:

      Actually, were not really broke.

      We’ve simply transferred the de facto ownership of everything to a handful of elite rulers and their assorted attendant class in return for money which is backed by nothing but itself and peoples false faith in it (the majority of which is not even printed on paper today, it’s not even good for use in the fireplace to cook and keep warm the way the Wiemar era Germans ended up doing with their hyper-inflated Marks).

      This can be changed, and changed peacefully, if the average person would just become aware of it. It wouldn’t be easy but it could be done.

      Sadly, most peoples comfort zones will forbid their considering that.

  19. toolmaker rex says:

    This collapse has been coming at a slow pace. Like falling in slow motion. Soon we will hit the bottom. These birth pangs are getting much stronger now. Even the people who have prepared for this are going to be in this mess when it gets here with those who haven’t prepared at all. They will be on the outside looking in. I’m not looking forward to this at all.It’ll be very ugly. Most of us will have to keep a very low profile to avoid drawing attention. This game is going to suck for everyone.

  20. Satori says:

    Brazil’s Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/brazils-economy-verge-total-collapse

    Oil Cash Waning, Venezuelan Shelves Lie Bare

    http://peakoil.com/consumption/oil-cash-waning-venezuelan-shelves-lie-bare

    check out the BARE shelves
    when credit dries up
    this happens FAST

    • Sgt. Dale says:

      Sat:
      Isn’t Brazil part of BRIC? If this happens what happens to BRIC? Will this have a effect on the BRIC nations economies?
      Sgt.

    • Enemy of the State says:

      I do a lot of work for a Brazilian owned company here in the US.. they are not spending any money, and Brazils steel market is very very soft as is all of steel at this point .. maybe ts a race to the bottom?

      not very helpful to their over all economy ..so this is believable to me

  21. RICH99 says:

    And with the next downturn ….unless your in the market ,it won’t affect you ……I wasn’t affected by the 2008 crash !!!

  22. Pissed Off Granny says:

    Just on a humorous/non humorous note:

    Another ‘gangsta’ rapper in trouble again.

    The humor:

    Knights attorney says he was afraid for his life and was fleeing the scene when he ran over two guys. Just one slight problem; he took time to back over them before leaving.

    Lawyers shit “spin” is clouding all ‘truth’ in the universe.

    • apache54 says:

      Pissed off granny,
      You make a VERY good point, allot of problems with our country stem from TOO many lawyers having there hand in everything, granted we have allot of scumbags in office and lots of NWO, stuff, BUT, things did really start changing for the worse when we let lawyers and judges start to make STUPID decisions and verdicts that went beyond common sense, then the cost of everything started to go up, ie, million dollars for a cup of HOT coffee in your lap! stupid, maybe the person should have been fined for being stupid! anyway, I think you get my point?

  23. markinaz says:

    I’ve been reading the (real) writing on the wall for some 35 years now. I’m very thankful to be blessed to have enough brain cells to rub together to see most if not all of it. To the best of my ability I’ve planed and prepared accordingly. My spiritual peace is secured, just playing it day by day now. I believe everyone will be effected by this. As I have told my friends “It is ALL going to be about the MONEY”. Some may last longer than others. I will go on with a happy heart knowing I did my best. My gut tells me the next two years starting now are going to become Very Bad.
    My latest prep project is ‘Growing and Juicing Wheat Grass’. Just a little something green and natural to do, to help keep my mind at peace.
    Good seed at a good price, anyone?
    Peace and Good Blessings upon you all.

  24. Enemy of the State says:

    so he called it like he sees it.. {shrugs shoulders }

  25. hammerhead says:

    Putins in big trouble .
    Just wait until the ACLU and NAACP get done with him .
    Al Sharpton is gonna kick Putins lillie ass !
    They are seriously gonna take Putin to the woodshed for this !

  26. sixpack says:

    “drove long-term bond yields to rock bottom levels not seen in 600 years since the Black Plague”

    I doubt the stock market is anywhere near 600 years old. The entire investment banking business, including stocks and derivatives ARE BANKSTER CREATIONS, designed to put more money in theirs and their elitist families’ pockets, while robbing the rest of us blind. The stock market is manipulable and it has become nothing more than an illusion.

    The entire investment banking business is a fraud, and should be outlawed. Maybe the people of the world will start thinking about dragging their elite banksters out and hanging them from the nearest light pole…

  27. the theft of oil by the bolshiviks and banksters from Ukraine,palestine ,lebonon,iraq ect is causing it

  28. old70 says:

    bring it on, the waiting is killing me.

  29. Fed Up Canadian says:

    It ain’t only about UofT princesses wanting rich men!

    That’s the syndrome of ALL Canadian females regardless of their age, status in the society and level of education.

    Every Canadian female considers herself to be the Center of the Universe and the Master of all males around her.

    But you should always ask yourself a question WHO is to blame for all this happening?

    And the answer is: The Bankers

    Canadian males lowered their standards and selection criteria, Canadian males succumbed to politically correct mainstream propaganda and brainwashing, Canadian males allowed Canadian females to take control and behave like princesses!!!

    Let the economic collapse BEGIN!

  30. Billty boy says:

    The one thing that EVERYONE needs to think about is that if you do have something or own something, it can be lost and remember someone will try to take it from you.

    But the one thing they CAN’T take from you, other than your life, Is the KNOWLEDGE in your head.

    How did people back 200 to 300 years ago live WITHOUT MONEY?

    Do you know what part of the animals to cut your steak from? CHOPS? RIB EYE’s? Butchering animals?

    Do you know how to make your own clothes, Maybe OUT OF LEATHER? Brain Tanning?

    Make your own buttons? Cut small section of deer antlers, about the width of two quarters, and drill small holes through the middle of them. HOME MADE BUTTONS!

    Make your own knife? EVER HEARD of FLINT KNAPPING?

    Grow or GATHER your own food? HUNTER-GATHERER’S

    Can you start fire by FRICTION?
    FLINT AND IRON PYRITE? use like flint and steel to make your own fire. Do you know what flint looks like? IRON PYRITE? OR as other people call it FOOL’S GOLD!

    There is so much out there to live off from, you just have to KNOW what it is.

    Everyone out there CAN be ready for when this all crashes down, But the main thing is that it is UP TO YOU!

    Whether you know this or not, MONEY is THE BIGGEST FORM OF SLAVERY in the world.

    Don’t get caught up in the mess, this is all from our own history of surviving.

  31. When the price of oil began its spiral downward, The first thing that came to mind was the impact it was going to have on Texas oil workers. Last March my family and I visited Floresville, Tx. We were planning to move there. As we spoke with realtors, it became apparent rentals were relatively high (compared to San Antonio). We were informed the demand was high due to an influx of oil field workers.

    So I conjecture that maybe the lower oil prices were not only to bankrupt Russia but to also further destroy much more of our middle class.

    • Smokey says:

      The Saudi’s are behind the low prices, they can pump oil for a decade at under $40 a barrel. Once the Russians, the US, and the North Sea are shut down, the price will go back up and Saudi’s will recapture market share.

  32. Kevin2 says:

    “Birth Pangs of the Next Depression”

    This is by far the longest pregnancy that can be imagined. An economics Professor Dr Batra PHD wrote a best selling book, “The Great Depression Of 1990”.

    I’m starting to wonder if they are going to kick this can down the road so far that they’re going extend the damn road.

  33. Pissed.......... says:

    Yup this oil price crash is really shaking things up…..
    What do I see going on around me? And what are people saying?

    First. I see a lot of people traveling and spending money on things that used to have to be put off because they had to put that money in the gas tank.

    Second. I am hearing people talk about how nice it is that fuel is cheaper and that they can actually go for a drive without having to miss a meal that would normally have gone into the tank.

    Third. Businesses are enjoying this new wave of customers that are now have a few extra bucks to spend on fun and needed things that have been put off because all the extra disposable income had to go into the tank……

    Tell me again how these low oil prices are a bad thing…….

    Now that was just the start, lower oil prices mean more profit for the companies that produce products that are produced from petrochemicals not to mention the savings in shipping those products.

    On tha negative side we the consumer probably won’t really see the price of groceries go down because once a price for goods is established it tends to be much slower to be reduced because companies are not eager to pass saving along that would reduce their profit margins.

    Just some things to think about….. And while your at it think about how many things in your life oil plays a part in….. It is NOT just the gas in your tank…………….

    • Smokey says:

      The only people hurt by $40 a barrel oil are the people spending $80 a barrel to pump it out of the ground, and crying environmentalists upset that gasoline isn’t going to be $8 a gallon soon.

  34. Chris G. says:

    I feel bad for those poor oil companies….Bleeding me dry all these years…Now I get a small benefit….And…OH GOD….This can’t happen!!!Its a bad thing…I say FUCK EM!!!! I like not being raped at the pump…

  35. foreigner says:

    maybe this is the hook in the mouth of gog and magog?

  36. Old Guy says:

    The only folks getting hurt are the over paid oil producers. The consumers are getting more benefit than the proucers are being harmed. The consumer will spend the same amount of their disposable income. they just wont be spending it on oil. The average price of a gallon of gas was $1.37 ten yeas ago. so we are still being gouged at $1.75. Cheeper oil is good for the USA.

  37. Chris Eaton says:

    Yet another ‘oil prices down are bad’ article….I have to wonder if the author has shares in Exxon…How about having a heaping helping of ‘shut the fuck up’ dude. Gas prices at 2.00 a gallon are good for me. I really don’t give a shit about your dumbass opinion.

 

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