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    Armstrong Cyclical Turning Point: April 16th Approaches

    Mac Slavo
    April 9th, 2010
    SHTFplan.com
    Comments (42)
    Read by 1,061 people

    armstrong_april16_2010Martin Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics and the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. As a cyclical theorist and economist Armstrong has predicted a variety of economic events, in many cases to the very day, including the stock market crash of 1987 and the precise movements of gold throughout the 1970′s up until the very top of the market in the early 1980′s. His models are not based on just economic data points, but specific historical cycles going back over 2000 years.

    If you’ve never heard of Martin Armstrong, it’s probably because he has been sitting in a federal prison for nearly ten years. The official story is that Armstrong was imprisoned for manipulation and financial schemes, however, he was never tried by a jury of his peers. Conspiracy theories abound regarding Martin Armstrong, with Armstrong himself suggesting that he was thrown behind bars because the powers-that-be believed he was manipulating the world economy with his cyclical models – models which Armstrong vehemently refused to turn over to the government and interested parties, namely Goldman Sachs and the Central Intelligence Agency. To this day, only Martin Armstrong knows the location of the source code for his forecasting models, and he has been held in contempt of court for nearly a decade as a result.

    The questions surrounding his imprisonment, along with the fact that his forecasting models have been dead on for the last thirty years, suggests that Martin Armstrong may be on to something. Just as we have been able to identify simple cycles within complex systems like how the planets revolve around the sun or ocean tides, Armstrong may have unlocked cycles within the economy and even politics, as evidenced by his 224 year economic confidence model, which can be applied, in hindsight, to events dating back to before the Roman Empire.

    How good is he? Here is an excerpt from Armstrong’s December 4, 2008 essay The Coming Great Depression which provided target dates and specific pricing ranges for the Dow Jones:

    We will see new highs in the Down long before we see the final low in the economy. The ideal lows on a timing basis for the stock market will be as soon as April 2009 or by June of 2009.

    The major support is 3,600 on the Down Industrials. During ’09, the support area appears to be 6,600, 5,000, and 4,000 – 2,600. Clearly, resistance is shaping up at 9,700-9,800. It would take a monthly closing back above 12,400 level to signal new highs are likely. If we saw a complete collapse into a low by April 2009 or June 2009 reaching the 4,000 general area, this would be the major low with most likely hyper-inflationary spiral developing thereafter.

    We did, in fact, experience lows in the stock markets on March 6, 2009 and with the Dow hitting 6,626. If Armstrong’s models are in any way accurate, we should be very happy that we did not see the Dow go lower to the 4,000 mark and that the Fed and Plunge Protection Team pumped the financial system with trillions of dollars to keep the stock market moving, otherwise, we may have very well gone into a hyper-inflationary scenario in 2009. For those who are unprepared for such a crisis, the government bought you some time.

    We are now looking back a year and we’ve seen significant growth in the stock market. We have government and corporate bond yields rising (and thus the value is falling) and gold has hit all nominal highs. With Greece potentially getting ready for a sovereign default within the next 90 days, the rest of the PIIGS lining up to follow, a seemingly stalled US recovery and a very polarized political environment not just in the US but around the globe, we may be approaching yet another turning point.

    In his 2008 article, referenced above, Armstrong pointed out some intermediate cyclical turning points, one of them being in January of 2010, where we saw a minor pullback in stocks, and the other falling on April 16 of this year:

    The more pronounced lows would be due on a timing basis between December 2009 and April 2010. The most extreme target would seem to be August 2010. The shorter the resolution to the stock market low, the sooner we will start to see much higher volatility.

    A year-end [2008] closing beneath this general level will signal that we could see the sharp decline to test the extreme support at 3,600 – 4,000 by as early as April 19, 2009 going into May/June 2009. If we were to drop so quickly into these targets, this would be most likely the major low with a significant railly into at least April 16th, 2010.
    The less volatile outcome would be a prolonged decline into December 2009 target to about April 16, 2010.

    Those who were are the 1985 Princeton Economic conference in Princeton, may want to review those video tapes. The volatility we were looking at 20-30 years into the future is now. As 3 of the 5 major investment bankers failed, Merryl, Leman and Bear, the liquidity has evaporated so the swings are going to be much more dramatic.

    As you can see, cyclical forecasting is not an exact science, but Armstrong’s models, which consider not just financial numbers and bonds yields, but geo-political events and capital flows, seem to be fairly accurate on identifying overall trends. Take for example, the fact that US Treasury yields have been steadily rising for the last few months, the dollar index is back over 80, Greece is ready to explode, and mass protests are scheduled for April 15 – 18 across the country. Something is happening, and though the April 16 target date could be a ‘top’ or ‘bottom’ in just about anything, it seems that we are sitting on a powder keg.

    Though we can not say for sure what, if anything, will happen on April 16, 2010, it is clear that Armstrong is predicting (and has been since 1985) that volatility is the name of the game – which means unless you are in the know, get out of the stock market. If we have volatility in the stock market, you can be assured that there is volatility in non-financial aspects of the world as well.

    SHTf Plan follows a variety of indicators provided to us by the writings of Martin Armstrong, Howard Katz, Harry Dent, Bert Dohmen, Marc Faber and the Foundation for the Study of Cycles via Weiss Research, we are not yet ready to provide our own timing “call” for the stock market crash which we believe is inevitable at this point.

    We do however, believe that we could see a turn in this rally sometime in the next several months. Specific dates are difficult, if not impossible to call because of the rampant global manipulation of everything from stocks, to currencies, to gold, but in the end, nature will always win out.

    The next major cyclical turning point according Armstrong? Keep an eye out for a major economic confidence turning point on June 13, 2011.

    armstrong_model2

    Recommended Reading from Martin Armstrong:

    It’s Just Time [October 10, 2008]

    A Three Year Old With a Pocket Calculator Can Figure Out We Are Screwed! [October 1, 2009]

    Will Gold Reach 5000+? [August 2009]

    Please Spread The Word And Share This Post
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    Author: Mac Slavo
    Views: Read by 1,061 people
    Date: April 9th, 2010
    Website: www.SHTFplan.com

    Copyright Information: Copyright SHTFplan and Mac Slavo. This content may be freely reproduced in full or in part in digital form with full attribution to the author and a link to www.shtfplan.com. Please contact us for permission to reproduce this content in other media formats.

     

    42 Comments...

    Vote: Click here to vote for SHTF Plan as a Top Prepper Web Site
    1. Rob Adams says:

      Mr. Salvo,

      Its one thing to aggregate information from third party sources as content for your blog, it’s another to start acting as if you have the qualifications to start making recommendations and stock market predictions. I think we would all appreciate you posting your BIO for us to read.

      Thank you,

      Rob Adams

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    2. Rob, thanks for your comments.

      First, I want to stress this:

      “we are not yet ready to provide our own timing “call” for the stock market crash which we believe is inevitable at this point.”

      So, we are not making specific stock picks/recommendations other than letting people know this is a dangerous market and they should probably sell. Of course, you could read this, as well as an opposing recommendation on several thousand other blogs.

      I guess I have to ask…. what qualifications does one need to have to make stock market predictions?

      1) If I told you that I achieved an SAT score of 1590 out of 1600, went to Harvard and graduated with a B.A. in economics summa cum laude, taught at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and was a professor at Princeton University, would that qualify me to make predictions about where the economy is and where I expect it to go in the future?

      2) what if I told you I was also on the  Board of Trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, one of the world’s leading scientific research laboratories, which conducts multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory? And that I was named one of the “Power 30″ top influential people in investing by SmartMoney?

      Would that be a bio that would then give me the qualifications for making stock market picks?

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    3. 1) This is the BIO for Mr. BenBernanke, the same man who said that the sub-prime crisis was contained and would not spread to the rest of the economy. The system was well capitalized….

      2) This is a partial BIO for Ben Miller, the chairman and portfolio manager for Morning Star’s Legg Mason Opportunity Trust, which was the mutual fund that took a 65% loss in 2008.

      But hey, they’re qualified…

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    4. Average Joe says:

      great point Mac.  Looks at all the Harvard graduates that failed to see the previous market crashes.  Looks at the cronies at GS that failed to see their over extension.  If it was not for Paulson giving them our money they would be at the same fate s the Leahman Brothers.  I would not look into credential as much as track record.

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    5. Sam says:

      Comments…..Mac, I would have to agree with you on the different ways a person can analyze the markets. History is usually a good guide but how many are versed in that. knowledge of the stars is another how many are versed in that. Thales the great philosopher was not interested in making money he was more interested in the attainment of higher knowledge, so the people around him accused him of being lazy, so he told them if  I want to I can make more money in one year than all of you put together in a life time, so they all mocked him. Thales had studied the cycles of the weather and analyzed that an excellent olive season was upon him, so he booked all the olive presses for the whole year, when the time came people paid him a heavily marked up price. That is what we call foresight leading to monopoly which can make you very rich. Another is to be part of the inner circle that controls the stock market, “The darkened ill acts of masonry where the all is known the secrects are kept and you serve your fellow man”. (Victor Hugo). Myself I like the old fashioned way “By the sweat of thy brow though shall earn thy bread”(Bible). So for all you parasites out there looking to make that easy buck, win or lose you’re doomed.

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    6. Rob Adams says:

      Point taken, I must admit the video compilation of Bernanke stating how everything was fine and that there was no risk to the economy was pretty amusing.

      Thanks

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    7. Patriot One says:

      Mac
      It seems the liberals have arrive at this site. The so called smartest people in the world got us in this mess. Its going to take simple conservative common sense to produce our way out of the mess. The problem is, we as a nation don’t produce much anymore.

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    8. bruno says:

      “what qualifications does one need to have to make stock market predictions?”
      1). must not run a doom and gloom website.  i wonder what that person’s prediction will be?
      2). not anyone who works for the gov’t.

      In other words, someone who can be objective.

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    9. Right Wing Prick says:

      Here we go, if you’re a so called conservative you can’t question another so called conservative, typical fucking hill billy!

      Rate This Comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    10. Brian Freeman says:


      Patriot One said….
      “Mac
It seems the liberals have arrive at this site. The so called smartest people in the world got us in this mess. Its going to take simple conservative common sense to produce our way out of the mess. The problem is, we as a nation don’t produce much anymore.”

      Not sure what conservative common sense you are talking about sir.
      I may be mistaken but this mess was written, signed, and sealed in Bush’s “conservative” eight years in the White House. I’m neither for the right or the left.

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    11. Henry says:

      If you are a trend-follower, it really doesn’t make any difference.

      Rate This Comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    12. Rick Blaine says:

      Mac’s reply to Rob’s comment was awesome.

      …and I do, in all seriousness, give Rob props for him acknowledging that.

      Rate This Comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    13. Roger says:

      Comments…..”Predictions, especially about the future, are difficult”, Niels Bohr, quantum physicist.
      Now for my wisdom.
      Those who live by the crystal ball will wind up eating glass.

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    14. I see Direxion’s 3X small Cap Bear (a levered short on essentially the Russell 2000) closed under 7 bucks on Friday……just sayin’

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    15. Great comments all.

      Rick, agreed — Rob was totally cool.. I may have been a little passive-aggressive in my response, but i did want to get my point across.

      Tom – Don’t tempt me!!  I have been watching SPXU, 3x Leverage inverse ETF for the S&P… I won’t lie, the leveraged ETF’s ate me up a little last summer, but I made up the losses with energy stocks and such — As I mentioned in the article, there are a few signals I am watching for and I might just jump in and play some leveraged ETF’s if I feel this market is about to turn to the downside…. I enjoy a gamble every so often, and this one might be fun… With leverage, timing is really the big problem… I would be comfortable buying a 1x leverage inverse right now, as I think the markets will turn at some point, but what fun would that be? I need the action that only a 3x leverage ETF can provide .. haha

      bruno, I am not sure if anyone can be objective, really. We all have confirmation bias in one way or another.

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    16. Patriot One says:

      Kind of short sighted Brian, don’t you think? What about FDR, JFK, LBJ, Carter and Clinton. Thier policies caused all the unfunded debt. Don’t forget Carters CRA sat like a time bomb till Clinton deregulated Banks. There is enough blame to go around on the right and left. How do we fix it?

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    17. zukadu says:

      Lets face it, DC has been selling America down the road for at least 50 years. It has been the collective fault of all Members of Congress from right to left during this time period which has eroded our liberties and bankrupted the country.

      The short answer to how we fix it is to sweep the democrats out of office as soon as possible and THEN get in the face of the republicans BIG TIME so they know we are not going to allow “business as usual”.

      After that, there appears to me to be a real need for a least one more Party from the grassroots to initiate reform: including rolling government back, and eliminating the ability of lobbyists to buy politicians.

      If the results that we are faced with is an example of the ability of the financial and political elite of this nation, then we know that their egos are bigger than their brains, and their heads are too far up their own ass, to have anything other than shit for brains.

      Take government back and roll it back. Eradicate the G-FLU: R1D1L1

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    18. Yeats says:

      However noble the sentiment is to “fix” or “rollback” the effects of the current disaster unfolding, such effort is futile. I admire the optimism and fresh energy, but it would be better suited saving yourself and yours. Our civilization turned a corner in history a while back and will not halt the inevitable destruction. I apologize for sounding like a typical “doomer”, but now the truth of it cannot be ignored. Save yourselves.

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    19. Jonny V says:

      Have to go with Yeats on this one.

      Sweep the D’s out of office so that we can put the R’s in office and then “get in their face”?  Come on Z, you’re smarter than that.
      The R’s are part and parcel of the collapse of the USA.  So are the D’s.  There is no difference what so ever between them.  The one in power does the bidding of the corporations, and the one out of power screams bloody murder and cries crocodile tears.  Then, they switch places and the game goes on unchanged.

      I wonder if historians 1000 years from now will  know the name of our country.  They surely will know about all the ancient empires, and they’ll know about China, Germany, England, and so forth.  We’ve only been here a paltry 234 years though.  We’re real good at hollering how great we are, maybe they’ll still be able to hear the hollering 1000 years from now.

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    20. Sam says:

      Comments…..Yeats is right on “Evil complete is self destructive”. Aristotle.

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    21. Mardochee Augustin says:

      Left wing, right wing same bird. Both parties want bigger govt. The Dems want big govt in the sense of wwelfare,death care deform,more govt agencies. The republicans want big govt for “national security.” That is why  they support the Patriot Act to go after dissenters like us. They both demonize us gun owning,anti war truthers. I have a question for the republicans or conservatives, you say you want to lower spending and lower the debt, are you willing to to cut military spending by 50%? For the liberals are you willing to cut welfare out of the budgets? No. And its not only the fault of the demopublicans, the american people are not willing to accept the tough choices. That is why the tea party is a joke. When you tell them you have to cut their social security and Medicare they ask for your head. This why America is a colossus whose feet is made out of soft clay that will collapse and never recover again. We will collapse because of our arrogance and unwillingness to do the tough choices to solve our problems in concerning our debt. We are almost at the point of no return, and when we pass it, it will be too late. That is why eight months from Nov, things will not change in Congress. I despise both parties and they both are destroying our great nation in binge spending, unnecessary wars and military bases around the world while our borders are wide open for drug cartels. We deserve what we get.

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    22. zukadu says:

      I can’t believe that so many of you are so willing to just roll over and play dead for the MAN. Its OUR country. Show some spine. Lets see some backbone.

      Jonny V, quit smoking that Canadian Cannibus, turn off the cartoon network, get off the couch and show some Jarhead mentality. I have never known a Marine that was a quitter. You would be the first. Is that the new Corp?

      Like Jefferson, ” When I consider that God is just, I tremble for my country”.  But the Union has weathered troubled times before, yet it has always grown up, come back, and come back stronger than ever. It will again. Thats who we are. Thats what we do. Buckle up. Lock and load. Its not over as long as one man will stand up and be counted.

      Are you men or boys?

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    23. Dear Mr. Salvo,
      With all due respect for your journalistic skills and this SHTF website, if you are going to cite Martin Armstrongs forecast then post HIS forecast and not your impression of what you may or may not have read. I do my own technical work but love Martins cyclical studies.
      You did this with Armstrongs real estate paper which was very valuable.

      As a financial market professional  I have my “go to guys ” and would like to read Martins work first hand , not filtered.

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    24. zukadu says:

      Hey Bob! I am a big fan of Armstrong too, and probably first introduced his work to these folks months ago. If you have a problem with  seeing his work FIRST HAND, go to his website for the info, no need to criticize Mac. As for Armstrong, I can’t speak for him either, but I’ll bet that he is gratified that people think his work is worthy enough to be cited and discussed.

      OBTW, Bob, whats the link?   Thanks

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    25. Hi Bob, thanks for your comment.

      Those excerpts were taken from Armstrong’s The Coming Great Depression [Dec 2008]. I referenced this essay and hyperlinked it to the original Armstrong work within the post above. As you know, Mr. Armstrong’s original works are published in PDF format, as they are type-written, thus publishing complete excerpts takes a bit of time, though in this particular case I copied his exact words regarding his expectations and analysis – they are excerpted in the blue blockquotes in the article above.

      I completely understand your desire to read the original works, and this is why I either embed them (as was the case with the Forecast for Real Estate essay) or link to them directly.

      Generally, I either link to or excerpt specific elements of anything that I have an opinion or commentary on, as is the case in the article above, that way readers can read my views and they also have the ability to view the original piece in its entirety by clicking over to it.

      Thus, I have made some effort to provide Armstrong’s actual analysis of the turning points, in his own words. Of course, I have my own views and interpretations on the matter, and I guess that is what SHTF Plan is all about… Opinions…. we’ve all got ‘em :)

      Zuk, thx for the backup on that one :)

      Thanks all, for the great comments.

      Mac

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    26. Brian Freeman says:


      Patriot One said: “There is enough blame to go around on the right and left. How do we fix it?”
      Fix it? On the surface, the fix is overwhelming and complex. But when I dig into how we got here, I realize that smart, crafty but mostly greedy people have been pulling off blatant stings on the people and getting away with it. Not just recently but for many decades. So, here we are this boiling point.

      Simply put, this is or was a constitutional republic. There is a really cool set of papers (basically the country’s operators manual) called The US Constitution, Bill of Rights and of course the celebrated Declaration of Independence that starts off with “We the People”. If this country were a company I’d call the Declaration of Independence the company’s mission statement. As far as I know, the citizens are co-owners of this country. Each person of voting age has one vote. Collectively this is very strong or weak depending on how interested the citizens are in keeping the company on course. The idea is to elect competent people that represent the will of the voters. I know I’m talking to the choir here but it’s good to state the obvious from time to time.

      Anyone can write the above paragraph because we learned it in grade school. I’m 66, but I assume they are still teaching it. I remember in school we elected a class president, secretary and so on that was an example of how a democracy works in a constitutional republic. Kids that ran for office, or was nominated, got up in front of the class said why they were best suited for the office. Normally good intentioned kids got voted in.

      So the point is, anyone can run for public office. We as voters are given the opportunity to filter out those running that don’t represent the will and needs of the people. For decades the voters have been voting in lots of greedy snake oil salesmen and women. The only reason snake oil salespeople have been elected and continue to be elected is that they know how to polarize and bring out the greed in the people. So who is at fault? The self-serving snake oil salesperson or the voters? Who can turn this country around? The snake oil salesperson or the voters?
      Is it too late? The last two presidents are perfect examples but the list is long. The Bush oligarchy and now the Obama road show. I wish I could sit on the outside and just watch, I’d just laugh like crazy. Oh, and who can turn this country around? Sarah Palin seems to be very popular right now. I rest my case. I just don’t know how they can get away with it.
      So back to the topic of Armstrong’s cyclical turning points as April 16th approaches.
      “We do however, believe that we could see a turn in this rally sometime in the next several months. Specific dates are difficult, if not impossible to call because of the rampant global manipulation of everything from stocks, to currencies, to gold, but in the end, nature will always win out.
      The next major cyclical turning point according Armstrong? Keep an eye out for a major economic confidence turning point on June 13, 2011.”
      So, will the “Nature” that Armstrong is taking about be common sense or just another coup of snake oil salespeople waving shinny objects in front of the voters?

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    27. Brent says:

      Comments…..Apparently Mr Armstrong did not predict his incarceration!

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    28. Brian, your points are all well taken.  I’ve got some bad news for you however.  Two years ago, I ran for public office just like you’re talking about.  I told people the truth on the issues that matter in my area, looked them in the eye when talking, passed out over 20,ooo leaflets with my cell phone number on them, answered every call, and worked my ass off for seven months.  The result?  I lost by 19 points.

      The people don’t want to hear the truth.  They don’t want any real options placed before them.  They want to be told that everything will be OK, and that they can just go back to sleep.  It doesn’t matter what the truth is anymore.  Anyone who says anything negative that the voters don’t want to hear can forget about getting elected.  Same thing if you get up there and talk about needing to hunker down and take care of responsibilities like balancing the budget and so forth.  People don’t want that crap.  What they want is for someone to tell them that their pet program isn’t going to get cut.  They want to hear that the world is rosy and that we just missed the disaster.

      While I was running, I got to meet many people on the inside of the machine.  People who were already elected.  I can tell you that ALL OF THEM, NO MATTER WHAT PARTY THEY BELONG TO, are only interested in their own continual re-election to office.  All other concerns are subjugated before that one.  Re-election takes precedence over EVERYTHING.

      Between serving in the Marines, and running for office, I’ve done my bit for king and country.  I can tell you with a straight, honest face, that we are FUCKED.  The best thing you can do is move far away from the cities, and prepare for the meltdown.  There is no saving this ship.  Far too many people are getting far too rich off the fact that it’s sinking.

      Sorry dude………

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    29. Brian Freeman says:


      Yes Jonny, I know how it goes. I helped an over qualified friend run for Congress years ago on the Democratic ticket. He lost to a very unqualified guy. So, the greasy snake oil Republican was a shoe-in.

      So, as I stated before, who is at fault? The self-serving snake oil salesperson or the voters? I guess it’s pretty obvious. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make the horse drink it.

      Next up for the populace…real pain; the depths to which they could not imaging. History repeats itself.

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    30. Chris C. says:

      Johny V, those were the most poignant words I have read in a long time. Your paragraph about what the voters want to hear is exactly the reason we are all doomed. Simple as that.

      I see the same thing on social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter, etc. People DON’T WANT the truth, even when it is staring them in the face. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve started a serious discussion and no one responds or I jump into one and am immediately attacked by more than half the commenters, with the inevitable person chiming in “Can’t we talk about something nice?” Ahh, it would so damn funny if it weren’t so tragic.

      I put what I deem to be intelligent posts out there and about 95% of the I time I get no response or crap. Example, I have made some youtube videos, ones that I put a heck of a lot of time into, of an educational nature. My rewared? 32 views in 2 weeks. Meanwhile the idiot who rapped “Where’s my chapstick” has almost 5.5 million views. If you don’t believe me check it out. There is no redemption for America. Sorry to say. The leading a horse to water line is so apt we should all have it put on a plaque and hung above our kitchen tables.

      I believe that humanity has struggled with the realization of the truth ever since its inception. For that reason, and for the aforementioned reasons I have made it part of my quest and my own personal growth to endeavor to find a way to get people to not accept what they are told, but rather to pursue their own version of the truth. Reflect on these quotes by some famous people in history:

      “Truth uttered before its time is always dangerous.” – Mencius

      “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” – Arthur Schopenhauer
       
      “Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened.” – Winston Churchill

      “If you would be a real seeker after truth, it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible, all things.” – Rene Descartes

      “The search for truth is more precious than its possession.” – Albert Einstein

      “Truth is a torch but a tremendous one. That is why we hurry past it, shielding our eyes, indeed, in fear of getting burned.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

      “All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.” – Galileo Galilei

      I apologize for my rant but I believe Johny V. has hit the nail on the head and I wanted to give him props for that.

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    31. Chris, great rant — keep on keepin’ on!

      Where can we find your Youtube videos? And please, feel free to submit them my way whenever you complete them. I am certain  that SHTF Plan readers will boost your viewership!

      Johnny, great post and great comment:

      “While I was running, I got to meet many people on the inside of the machine.  People who were already elected.  I can tell you that ALL OF THEM, NO MATTER WHAT PARTY THEY BELONG TO, are only interested in their own continual re-election to office.  All other concerns are subjugated before that one.  Re-election takes precedence over EVERYTHING.”

      My wife’s uncle is the mayor of a local town here in the Houston area. Whenever I can, I sit down with him and usually go off about government and the problems we face. He said exactly the same thing as you — It’s all about re-election, and it doesn’t matter whether it is federal, state or local politics…. same animal.

      Though it will not fix all of the problems in America, my personal feeling is that term limits will at least slow down the machine…. It is interesting that Thomas Jefferson spoke about refreshing the tree of liberty every couple of decades, yet he and the founders failed to implement controls to prevent dictator-like terms in government. This was, in my view, a HUGE mistake.

      Would we be in the same situation we are in today if people like the Kennedy’s, the Bushes, the Pelosis, the Byrds, etc. would have been restricted from living off of the public’s teet for decades?

      The same goes for federal judges… lifetime appointments?? No one saw the danger here? really? how is that possible?

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    32. zukadu says:

      As you know Mac, the premise behind lifetime terms for federal judges was the idea that these individuals, once in office, would be above the policitical fray and could apply themselves to the application and interpretation of the law for the general good of all; without fear of loss of income for an unpopular verdict, or the vulgarity of seeking funds from supporters and benefactors for re-election, and the real influence that these monies might buy. Can you imagine the corruption that would exist if judges were elected instead of appointed to the bench?

      And don’t blame Jefferson and the FF. Checks and balances WERE in place.  Dictatorial powers for the President have only been accumulating since the Civil War, and unfortunately, modern technology has created time constraints for an adequate response to potential threats. For the Chief Executive to assembly Congress for the checks and balances that were once required to say, go to war; the war could be over before the Senate could convene.

      As for Pelosi and the rest of the crimminals in DC: they lost their fear of Almighty God long ago; which is why injustice and corruption have been legalized in BIZZARO WORLD.  Now let them fear the MOB, because the MOB will surely take them to their just reward when the SHTF. Not so far off, either.

      Hasta la vista Baby!

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    33. Jonny V says:

      Somewhere in that MOB, your Robspierre is waiting to come out Z!  Plans for the machine of justice are available on the internet!!!!!!

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    34. Pal says:

      Man, 16th came and here comes the GS  fraud charge news!

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    35. Given the recent history of market performance, we’ll probably go to new 18 month highs next week, but, if it just so happens that this is a market top, then Armstrong is on to something — which means we are TOTALLY screwed, because his forecasts going forward are not pretty.

      Armstrong’s cycles are not just based on financial events, but there seems to be some sort of cyclical wave (224 year cycle) at play here that combines financial, economic, political and social aspects.

      Of course, as I mentioned in the above article, there is some room here for whatever move to occur, as it is really difficult to time anything to the day or even specific year.

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    36. singaporean says:

      Unbelievably spot on!!!
      so scared now!!!!

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    37. Dave says:

      Well….it’s the 17th of April…can I come out of my home now?

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    38. zukadu says:

      Hey Mac! Just for the fun of it, I’m going to call for a Market Crash for May 24th, 2010 at 4:02 pm Pacific Standard Time 

      Or your money back.    :-)

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    39. They way things are going that’s as good a guess as any and it might just sync up with the signals I am waiting for. Though I feel like it could happen anytime, I am still waiting for the bond markets to weaken a bit more.. Corporate bonds seem to still be doing well, relatively speaking… when those Corp bond yields start rising more, then I will move back in to some short positions… specifically, I am watching the Barron’s Best Grade Bonds, looking for the magic 6% yield number (so long as the DJI stays in the 11,000 area), and watching the LQD bond fund waiting for it to go under around $104 a share… If I see that, I may put whatever free funds I have sitting in my trading account into the S&P 500 Triple Lev Inverse SPXU and let it ride! Probably get my a$$ handed to me like I did trying to short the markets in 2009.. haha

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    40. Yos says:

      The Armstrong prediction hit, at 16th April 2010 the Goldman Sucks get trouble from SEC.

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    41. Henry says:

      Jonny V and Chris C, excellent points, not because they ring of truth, but because THEY ARE TRUTH.

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    42. AndyB says:

      I have felt for a while now that the turning point might be around April Fool’s Day this year; sort of appropriate.  I base that on the debt ceiling negotiations and the Irish elections; the former perhaps leading to a rating decrease and the later having the possibilty of blowing up the Euro if the Irish stand up and refused to be butt-fkkd for a generation or two.

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