For quite some time we’ve tried to hammer home the fact that what we are being told and what is actually happening with our economy are two completely different things.

According to Karl Denninger, it looks like another scam is being uncovered as we speak:

I have a very disturbing email that came in this evening.

It alleges out-and-out fraudulent reporting of home sales in one of the regional MLS systems.

That is, prices paid that are in fact much lower than the “sold” prices reported in the MLS.

The person in question claims to have seen over 100 of these in his area.  I have copies of two, and it appears, from the evidence that I have, that at least for those two the claim is accurate.

One in particular I was able to pull the auction data on.  It “sold” under reserve, is listed as sold in the MLS at ~25% higher than the “sold” bid, and the premium is disclosed as 5%. This property also has a 90-day “anti-flip” provision on it, implying that the paper may be held by one of the GSEs.  (It’s a nice-looking place, incidentally.)

Here’s the problem, obviously - Case-Schiller and other “home statistics” numbers related to price paid are all computed off these numbers provided by the local Realty boards (via NAR.)  If the data in the MLS is bogus then so is the so-called “median sales price” and so are Case-Schiller’s numbers!

These are not small discrepancies either - in both cases the “over-reporting” is by approximately 25%!

It looks like the National Association of Realtors is trying to pad their numbers a bit. We can’t have realtors out there telling potential buyers the actual truth about the real estate market. Plus, if a realtor tells a small fib to a potential buyer and ups the price of a home 20% over the actual value of homes in that particular neighborhood, they stand to earn a couple thousand dollars extra, while also contributing to an artificial propping up of home prices nationwide.

Would-be home buyers need to not only trust what the realtor is saying, but verify what is actually happening by checking county sales records for the area.

There is a major disconnect in housing prices right now. Anecdotal evidence in our neighborhood ads credence to this theory. For instance, the neighbor directly across the street has had their home listed on the market for nearly five months. Originally pricing the home at $189,000, they have now cut the price to $179,000, which would be a break-even proposition for them if the home were to sell at that price.

The neighbor, who no longer occupies the home because of a job relocation, is cash-strapped because he’s essentially paying two mortgages now, and there are very few people looking at this particular home. One reason for this may be the fact that there are forty homes for sales in our subdivision. The two streets next to ours have five homes listed for sale, three of which almost mirror the floor plan and acreage of our neighbor’s home. All three are selling for significantly lower prices, with two of them priced at $159,000 and one of them priced at $149,000. It’s hard to confirm, but all three look to be distressed sales.

A prospective buyer entering this particular market, buying the $179,000 home, would obviously be overpaying. But the real estate agents, who we’ve spoken with, indicate that $179,000 “is about the going rate” for homes in this area. Either the agent is unaware of the three other homes that are literally one street over (unlikely) or they are flat out lying.

This is the state of affairs in America’s real estate market.

It’s hard not to trust your agent, after all they’re supposed to be working for you, right? Wrong. Remember that the real estate agents interests, even if you contacted that agent first, lean towards the seller, not the buyer. There are good agents out there, that are truthful with prospective buyers, but because of the deterioration of the real estate market, more agents are turning to fabrications to move homes. If you’re planning on buying a home our recommendation is trust but verify.

For the prepper-minded individual this short documentary may provide some insights into preparing for and surviving the three major effects of a nuclear detonation:

• Heat
• Blast
• Fall Out (Radiation)

Among other things, the documentary covers preventing direct exposure to heat rays, construction of emergency shelters, and surviving fall out.

Our view is and always has been that we will see a nuclear detonation in a major city during our lifetimes. For those who lived during World War II this already happened. This is, in our opinion, a high probability event over the course of the next several decades. With tens of thousands of nuclear weapons already produced, the chances that one of these will get into the hands of the wrong person or people are higher now than ever before, especially with “rogue” states entering the nuclear production fray.

It’s hard to believe that nuclear weapons were produced as only a deterrent. We, meaning our respective governments, did not produce these weapons just so that we could look at them and admire their designs. At some point, they will be used on the populations of the globe - for whatever reasons the-powers-that-be determine.

The documentary above discusses the heat, blast and radiation damage from a one kiloton nuclear weapon. Today, the US, China and Russia have weapons with multiple war heads of up to 100 Megatons.

Nuclear Detonation Mapping:

Enter your zip code or city in the search field. Choose your “weapon” below the map and click “Nuke It” to map effects. Click here if application does not load

Resources:

Click here to learn more about pressure damage and fall out from 1 Megaton and 25 Megaton nuclear weapons.

A state-by-state map of likely nuclear targets in the United States.

For some basic survival and prepping info, we suggest reading Survive Anything: Nuclear Attack.

Whether you are planning for a multi-year recessionary crisis, economic collapse, deflation, hyperinflationary depression, or Mad Max, gold seems to be the one physical asset that promises to provide some level of protection when the future of paper currencies and other asset classes is in question. Though it’s not often mentioned as one of the investing tools at one’s disposal, by all accounts it does seem to be gaining acceptance by mainstream investors:

Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.”

source: Bloomberg

Billionaire financier George Soros recently referred to gold as the ultimate bubble, and we agree. In the last decade we’ve seen bubbles in technology, US real estate, Chinese real estate, oil, and the credit markets. As we speak there is likely a bubble developing in US Treasuries as investors around the globe shift assets to what many believe to be the last bastion of safety in the investment world. But as the Bloomberg piece cited above points out, investors are coming to realize that there may be another investment that is just as safe, if not safer, than U.S. debt, and billions of dollars all over the planet are shifting into it. Keep in mind that buying at the top of the bubble is a bad idea, but not during the initial stages.

We are currently in the opening stages of a massive gold bubble that will be blown over the coming years. The next phase of the crisis, which is beginning to play out right now, will solidify our long-held views that the problems stemming from the 2008 crisis were not averted, and that we are actually worse off now than we were in the midst of 2008 and 2009. As our Gross Domestic Product comes to a near stand still later this year, it is impossible to predict exactly how stock markets will react, or what the government will do in response. Though, we will take a shot and forecast that, based on recent lip-service coming out of Washington - the Federal Reserve, Treasury and our government controlled banks will do whatever it takes to avoid deflation - meaning they will print more money and pass even more laws restrictive of actual economic growth.

Regardless of the immediate impact this has on stocks or the perceptions of consumers, once it becomes clear that our elected and appointed officials have failed at the very thing in which they have been deemed experts, the general public (globally) is going to lose confidence in their abilities to further manage the crisis.

As a result, even more money will shift into precious metals - there will simply be no alternative over the longer term.

Whether analysts are right or wrong about the $1500 per ounce price target for gold over the next year or so is yet to be determined. We’ve got our own views on this and they may not mesh with those of the analysts.

If there’s anything that we should have learned from this crisis it’s that the analysts are usually surprised by what happens.

Over the long-term, gold is going up. To us, that’s a given, partly because of the reasons cited above. In the near-term, which is the time frame to which most analysts subscribe, we should be ready for anything.

One situation in which gold may actually go down in the near-term, as opposed to the price targets of the analysts, is during a stock market crash. What if, in a repeat of the 2008/2009 market collapses, investors simply decide to sell everything first, and ask questions later? What if they begin to unload their blue chip stocks and bank shares just as quickly as they sell their gold? In 2008, we saw gold suffer a significant decline because of this phenomenon coupled with a strengthening dollar. Perhaps a similar scenario will play out in the months ahead.

Whatever the case may be, however, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. Crisis, not deflation or inflation, will be the driving factor. And, given where we’ve been, where we are, and what we can expect in the future, we are nowhere near a recovery.

Thus, regardless of what the analysts are saying, be they supporters or detractors, gold and silver remain our top investment vehicles as a store of value for the preservation of wealth. Whether you’re buying gold bricks to diversify some of your amassed wealth or stocking pre-1965 quarters for your bug-out bags, you can feel confident that you are backed by over 5,000 years of monetary history that proves your investment will never go to zero.

Hat tip Bearish News

After over a year of back and forth with the bank, the bank finally repossessed the home and foreclosed on the homeowner, but by all accounts, it seems the former homeowner made the right decision:

Hello Mish,

It’s been over a year since I asked for your opinion about how long it would take for the housing market to “recover,” which was about the same time that I stopped paying my mortgage and decided to walk away.

Well, the game is finally over. I moved out last week, and the trustee’s sale occurred last Thursday.

After thinking repeatedly about it recently, the end results look something like this:

After purchasing the house in 2005 for about $740K with only $40K down, if you count my mortgage payments as “rent,” in a sense, I recovered my down payment over the past year by living “rent” free over the past year.

The current value of the house is most likely around $400K. Thus, I was able to “get out from under” a $300K loss by walking away.

After a bit of looking over the past couple of months, found a two-bedroom house I can rent for $1200/month. The rental is in Scottsdale, just a few miles from my old house. It’s definitely smaller and not as nice, but it’s more than adequate.

Given my new rent payment, I am estimating that I will be saving at least $1500/month by renting the new house vs. staying in the old house, even with a modified payment (and yes, I am accounting for the tax break on my old property.

Therefore, as things currently stand, I believe I will “save” $150K over the next 100 months - assuming of course that my rent doesn’t change and/or I don’t move again.

Thus, I believe I can conservatively estimate that my decision to walk on the house will essentially increase my net worth by approximately $300K over the next 100 months had I struggled in the existing loan. Moreover, that assumes the old house increases in value in that timeframe. If not, the number may be more like $450K.

On top of everything, just this week, I was contacted by the real estate agency that will be selling the house for the new owner (i.e., the bank - it looks like they bought the house “from themselves” at the trustee’s sale), and I am being offered $2500 to leave the appliances, etc., in the old house.

The only real downside I see at this point is that my credit is shot. I guess I’ll have a foreclosure on my “record” for the rest of my life.

However, the irony is that if there has ever been a time in my life when I do not want to borrow any money for anything, it is now.

I’m not trying to make light of the situation. This is not something that I’m proud of. However, it does feel good to have it over with, and looking at the math, it really seems like the right thing to do. Sure, I “could” have been paying my mortgage over the past year, but given the hit my income took last year and the first part of this year, I would essentially be living paycheck to paycheck right now.

As always, I appreciate your work. Please keep it up.

Thank you,
Morally Conflicted in AZ

P.S. I did consult with an attorney before making the final decision to walk away.

Morally conflicted, in our view, made the right decision.

When bankrupt governments and banks across the world can seize taxpayer funds through the mandates of out of control legislatures, essentially changing the rules in the middle of the game, then it is our view that the people, who are left out to dry, have the right to do the same.

Incidentally, the former homeowner indicated that he remained in the house for quite some time while he negotiated with the bank. This, of course, means that this property remained on the bank’s book as a paying asset for a year, probably marked-to-model, indicating the value of the asset was still $740,000. The mark-to-market value, which considered the real estate market’s fair price, was actually $400,000. But, the fact that there were no other buyers but the bank, suggests that the property was likely worth closer to $0.00 (theoretically). Yet, the bank will still likely mark this asset based on a perverted pricing model so as to boost their numbers. All large banks engage in these same machinations, yet they don’t seem morally conflicted in any way, though they know full well that they are lying to shareholders and regulators.

This former homeowner did not make a morally “wrong” decision. If there’s anyone that should be morally conflicted by their actions leading up to and during this economic crisis, it’s our politicians, banking conglomerates, and heads of central banks.

Editor’s Note: The following article has been contributed by Mr. Howard Katz and is a part of his regular weekly columns.

The time has come. Look to the skies.
The price of gold is on the rise.
In bullish years, on Labor Day
The price of gold becomes in play.

And yes, when all is said and done,
The loser is Al Abelson.
He sold his gold in late July.
Already he’s begun to cry.

The trend of gold in season fall,
The trend it is the best of all.
So, gold bug now uplift your hope.
I know that you are not a dope.

Oh, people, people can’t you see?
The evil name is Bernanke.
He’s very busy printing dough,
And there is much that he don’t know.

Money’s doubled since ’08.
Counterfeiting is our fate.
Can’t measure the exact supply
Because it was their choice to lie.

Demand deposits are not time.
Please listen to my little rhyme.
Demand deposits, money yes.
They’re part of money we confess.

And when that money hits the street,
Then all will know that they do cheat.
The price of goods will start to rise.
So call your broker, give him buys.

Commodities will lead the way.
Commodities, that’s what I say.
Coffee’s what it’s all about,
And silver threatens to break out.

To this conclusion I have come.
Commodities in pendulum.
Commodities go up in price.
Producer prices, very nice.

And then Consumer Price Index
Will follow, Bernanke to vex.
We’re coming to election time,
And what they do is just a crime.

But this year I am not a dope,
And I can see that there is hope.
Like back in year of seven-three,
We see the rise of Tea Party.

The socialists, they shout “unfair.”
They’re falling with Obamacare.
We see the rise of Party, Tea.
It’s on the side of you and me.

So call your broker on the phone.
Tell him that you’re not alone.
Tell him please to buy some gold
‘Tis how my story does unfold.

We study year of seven-nine
When price of gold was mighty fine.
The CPI 13.3.
A bad, bad year for thou and she.

Yes, bad, bad year for thou and she,
But good, good year for him and me
Because with winter getting cold,
We called our broker, bought some gold.

By Jan. of ’80, very nice.
We bought the paper, checked the price.
We bought the paper, checked the date.
Gold price was up by 3.8.

Oh, golly, gee, shades of Al Gore.
It multiplied by almost 4.
And we were happy, sakes alive.
It hit a peak, 875.

So what will happen, years to come?
When CPI is on the run?
We’ll see a bullish move in gold,
And silver also will unfold.

July a breakout came in wheat,
Which maketh up the food we eat.
And reader do not be forlorn.
Another breakout looms in corm.

All eyes are now on HUI,
And we are not about to cry.
Ascending triangle in place.
Bernanke we are in your face.

The price objective line stands tall.
It rises fast; it does not fall.
In span of 2 years I will cry,
8,000 in the HUI.

8,000 HUI comes soon.
Gold stocks going to the moon.
And then all gold bugs will be rich.
But rest of country in the ditch.

Ascending triangle in gear.
Breakout looking very near.
My guess, October or Novem,
A breakout that will be a gem.

One problem that doth folks perplex,
Some action in CDNX.
The junior golds, I’ll tell you how,
Are acting better than the Dow.

And when these junior golds get hot,
Then you will be so glad you bought.
They gather strength, and then they fly.
And you’ll be glad that you did buy.

Republicans now look true blue,
In House and maybe Senate too.
The changes now in old D.C.
Portend big things for you and me.

Is balanced budget coming through?
Is gold standard the thing to do?
Is Fed permitted or allowed?
How do we make the nation proud?

To answer questions, here’s the gist:
The One-handed Economist.
Fortnightly letter, out we send,
Which forecasts what facts now portend.

The price of letter, listen clear,
It is 300 bucks per year.
Go to website, press Pay Pal.
It’s open both to guy and gal.

The address starts, 3 Ws
And ends DOTcom; please do not lose.
Thegoldspeculator is rest.
Of newsletters it is the best.

You may subscribe by U.S. post.
The address, well it is the most.
The One-handed Economist
Doth send things out to mailing list.

Nashua Street, its 614,
And if you want to know some more.
PO Box number 122.
And that is all you have to do.

It’s town of Milford, sakes alive,
In zip code 03055.
Free State (New Hampshire) is address,
And that is all I do confess.

And if you choose the U.S. post,
Then I would like to really boast.
Subtract 10 bucks from total cost.
Just so that mail don’t get lost.

I thank you, sir, for reading song.
Hope you and I will get along.
Gold’s going up; I tell you that’s
The honest truth from

Howie Katz

WWW.THEGOLDSPECULATOR.COM

THE ONE HANDED ECONOMIST
614 NASHUA ST. #122
MILFORD, N.H. 03055

At about 5pm Alaska Time, Thursday, August 26, 2010, security personnel approach Sidney Hill, a lone man peacefully displaying an impeach Obama sign near Pioneer Plaza on the Alaska State Fairgrounds in Palmer. Minutes later, a crowd assembles, additional security forces arrive, and they physically assault the man holding the sign. He’s taken to the ground with force and detained.

An unidentified Alaska State Trooper arrives to physically disperse the crowd, and at several points during the conflict, crowd members yell in support of the demonstrator’s right to speak his message. The demonstrator’s personal firearm is confiscated by fair security, and he is held captive until Palmer police arrive to escort the man away in cuffs.

Sidney Hill was in jail awaiting a pre-trial at 1:00pm on August 27, 2010 at the Palmer Courthouse. He has been charged with Assault 4-Cause Fear Of Injury, Disorderly Conduct-Challenge To Fight, and Criminal Trespass 2- Upon Premises. However, according to the Valley Frontiersman newspaper, “Assistant District Attorney Trina Sears said her office decided not to prosecute Hill on the assault charge.” The Alaska State Fair, Inc. contracted security and traffic control to StarPlex, a firm located in the Northwest Lower 48.

If Mr. Hill’s demonstration was peaceful, then his free speech rights seem to have been violated, though we are not completely clear on Alaskan, county and city laws in regards to what is deemed a public venue. If, however, security personnel took Mr. Hill’s sign, by force, should they have not also removed the t-shirts of any fairground visitors who were displaying messages supporting political candidates or ideas deemed to be controversial by an arbitrary party?

Mr. Hill made calls for the media. But no one showed up - at least not from the mainstream.

Luckily, video cameras were present, otherwise it is likely that Mr. Hill’s assault charges would be pursued to the full extent of the law. In a perfect world, exactly the opposite would happen, and those who were responsible for the assault, detainment, arrest and falsification of charges against Mr. Hill would be the ones facing charges.

Hat tip Golden Foxx

After an outcry from Second Amendment rights groups, the National Shooting Sports Foundation and the National Rifle Association, the Environmental Protection Agency has responded to a group of petitioners that included the Center for Biological Diversity and American Bird Conservancy by rejecting a petition seeking to ban the production and sale of lead ammunition.

According to the Examiner the rejection came because the EPA lacked jurisdiction on the matter, “In rejecting the petition, Steve Owens, EPA assistant administrator for the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention claimed that the agency did not have jurisdiction to consider the issue under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).”

EPA Information Release Follows

EPA Denies Petition Calling for Lead Ammunition Ban

Contact Information: Brendan Gilfillan gilfillan.brendan@epa.gov

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency today denied a petition calling for a ban on the production and distribution of lead hunting ammunition. EPA sent a letter to the petitioners explaining the rejection – that letter can be found here: http://www.epa.gov/oppt/chemtest/pubs/sect21.html

Steve Owens, EPA assistant administrator for the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, issued the following statement on the agency’s decision:

“EPA today denied a petition submitted by several outside groups for the agency to implement a ban on the production and distribution of lead hunting ammunition. EPA reached this decision because the agency does not have the legal authority to regulate this type of product under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) – nor is the agency seeking such authority.

“This petition, which was submitted to EPA at the beginning of this month, is one of hundreds of petitions submitted to EPA by outside groups each year. This petition was filed under TSCA, which requires the agency to review and respond within 90 days.

“EPA is taking action on many fronts to address major sources of lead in our society, such as eliminating childhood exposures to lead; however, EPA was not and is not considering taking action on whether the lead content in hunting ammunition poses an undue threat to wildlife.

“As there are no similar jurisdictional issues relating to the agency’s authority over fishing sinkers, EPA – as required by law – will continue formally reviewing a second part the petition related to lead fishing sinkers.

“Those wishing to comment specifically on the fishing tackle issue can do so by visiting http://www.regulations.gov. EPA will consider comments that are submitted by September 15.”

R286

source: Environmental Protection Agency

A group of petitioners that include the Center for Biological Diversity and American Bird Conservancy have filed a Petition to the Environmental Protection Agency to Ban Lead Shot, Bullets, and Fishing Under the Toxic Substances Control Act.

The EPA will be voting on the rule change on November 1, 2010 with public discussion on the matter taking place between August 3 and October 31.

According the National Shooting Sports Foundation, “If the EPA approves the petition, the result will be a total ban on all ammunition containing lead-core components, including hunting and target-shooting rounds.”

Excerpt from the petition:

Pursuant to the Toxic Substances Control Act (“TSCA”, 15 U.S.C. § 2601 et seq.), Petitioners Center for Biological Diversity, American Bird Conservancy, Association of Avian Veterinarians, Project Gutpile and Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility hereby petition the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) to revise rules governing toxic substances to ban the manufacture, processing and distribution in commerce of lead shot, bullets, and fishing sinkers. Petitioners request that the EPA
consider this rulemaking pursuant to section 6(a) of TSCA.

Based on information extending back to Roman times more than 2,000 years ago, lead has long been identified as a highly toxic substance with lethal properties and numerous pathological effects on living organisms. Health effects from lead exposure can run the gamut from acute, paralytic poisoning and seizures to subtle, long-term mental impairment, miscarriage and impotence. Lead is a cumulative metabolic poison affecting a large number of biological functions including reproduction, growth, development, behavior and survival. Even low levels of exposure to lead can cause neurological damage, and there may be no safe level of lead in the body tissues of fetuses and young. Despite this knowledge, lead continues to be used in manufactured products, many of which are sources of toxic lead exposure to wildlife and to human beings.

Are the petitioners acting out of safety concerns, or is this an attempt to further disarm America’s gun owners?

Hat tip Wheedle

A crowd of people gather ’round to listen, and it’s obvious that the majority of them are receptive to non-traditional ideas - or rather, those ideas they don’t hear in the mainstream news but know to be true deep down.

People know what’s going on in terms of the way our lives are being manipulated, even if they have just a hint that things aren’t always as they seem. Those who have lived their lives without being aware may only need a single Eureka moment to make a significant, long lasting impact on their individual well being and the betterment of our world as a whole.

The goal, of course, is for everyone of us to pick up their own personal megaphone, be that a microphone at a community event, a keyboard and a blog, a ballot on election day, or an awareness of how we spend our hard earned income and which causes and movements we’re funding when we do so.

Hat tip Silver Bear Cafe

Well, you torture yourself with what’s behind you
Torture yourself with what awaits you,
Dragging that guilt everywhere inside you
Anxious of the goals that always elude you
Your mind will find a way to be unkind to you somehow
But all we really have is happening to us right now.

~ Marillion, Happiness Is the Road

Having spent years preparing and worrying about what the dreaded Day of Reckoning was going to look like had a subtle yet profound effect on me. When you live with something for long enough, you kinda get used to it being there, like some homunculus sitting on your shoulder urging you to do things you would never have thought to do previously. And there’s a danger in that. You become comfortable living in a heightened state of anxiety, forgetting to stop and remind yourself just how great being alive is and enjoying the people and things you have. Spending all your time devouring/researching different techniques for survival and resource gathering will muddle your priorities; making everything seem like the single most important task to accomplish right now…dammit.. OMG! I’ve spent years beating myself up because I haven’t been as successful as I thought I needed to be in gathering what I felt was adequate to the task. A lot of energy that could have been spent productively was spent in self-recrimination and self-doubt, compounding poor decisions with others. It is this realization of wasted time that has changed my attitude towards the ‘pocky’clipse’ and my place within it.

Simply put, I saw myself reflected in someone else and was a little scared.

My wife’s family has come together with us recently to embrace the vision of the future that I had and we’ve decided to pool our resources around our home and property. I’d like to think that we set a good example but it doesn’t matter, though it was a bit gratifying. What does matter is watching someone else go through the same stages of development you did and realizing where you are in relation to that and why it is that they thought you were bug-nuts crazy five years previously. All of a sudden, I found myself being the voice of reason and restraint prioritizing our task list from the flood of, admittedly, good ideas that were being proffered; playing the same role my wife did for me.

I fell back on my extensive self-training in basic economics and realized that everything has an opportunity cost. There isn’t enough time or money in the world to do all the things we’d like to do, be it learning the piano, playing with your kid(s) or preparing for the crack-up boom and bust. All the enthusiasm in the world cannot substitute for the time needed to acquire and become proficient with a new skill. As well, money cannot substitute for knowledge. It can help speed things along, but that is all. You have to learn how to grow food on your land, as every plot of land is different. You have to learn how to shoot your guns, no amount of reading can substitute for rounds put down-range. Etc.

As I like to say, all knowledge is fractal and the more you learn the more you realize just how little you know. Each new discovery opens up a host of new questions begging for answers. This is especially true when learning how to farm! Seeing the big picture is the easy part. Boring into the guts of what it takes to become even adequate at one or two particular tasks is where the work comes in. What a shock, becoming an expert at something you have no knowledge of takes a long time. Again, no matter how talented or intelligent you think you are, there is no substitute for time and attention to detail.

This brings me to the cottage industry of internet survival experts that has flourished in the wake of the Fed’s New Depression. My attitude about this has changed considerably as well. It is obvious that they are preying on those newly-minted Chicken Littles who are, rightfully, scared about the near-term future; hyperbolically describing their particular area of expertise as the most important thing you can do to prepare. They do have subscriptions to sell and Google ads to promote. The gun sites are the worst, in my opinion. Forever touting their personal choices (and love of guns and shootings) in terms of life and death, conjuring up scenarios, which have an infinitesimal chance of happening to any of us (unless we go looking for trouble), as things to rationally prepare yourself for. In my opinion, while you absolutely need to train with your gun, it is the right attitude and mindset you need to cultivate in order to use it properly. That can’t be taught in an article. It’s like these people have walked out of the mythical land of plenty promulgated by leftist-anarchists like The Venus Project and have forgotten that we have jobs, kids, dogs and what normal people call, “a life,’ when they talk about how much you need to train with your weapon. Ammunition is bloody expensive if you haven’t noticed.

To me, your gun must be first, comfortable to hold and shoot. Anyone who does not stress this is not worth reading another word from. My wife and I each have 20 ounce hammers, hers is an expensive, anti-vibration one, while mine was the cheapest one on sale that day, but it fit my hand perfectly. I can’t drive a nail straight with hers, while I can drive literally anything with mine. I love my hammer in a nigh-inappropriate way and without it, my house would never have gotten finished. I won’t start a project without it. Same thing with our handguns. I can leave my CZ-85 Combat lay around for years, pick it up, put some clay targets in tree branches, step back 20 yards and hit them all without thinking much about it. It is simply perfect, even with the stock plastic grips. I can’t hit the broad-side of a bull’s butt with her Beretta. Gods forbid you hand me some awful 1911! I know this is gun-sacrilege but I hate them. I know I’m using a ‘hole-poker’ (9mm) rather than a ‘man-stopper’(45ACP), but I’d rather poke a hole in a guy with my CZ than not stop him with a 1911. Pick a gun you like, get comfortable with it, practice with it intensely at first, do maintenance at the range and spend the rest of your time asking yourself when you’d be capable of pointing it at another human being and pulling the trigger, because that’s the biggest obstacle any still-rational person will have to self-defense.

Would I like my farm to be totally self-sufficient in the event of a complete breakdown of services and society? Sure. Do I have the money and time to make that happen? It is to laugh. I don’t have the time to become a sharp-shooter. I’m not prepping a ‘bug-out’ bag and I’m certainly not going to drop $20,000 on an off-grid solar power system. In the end, I’ve come to embrace The Pareto Rule. What can I do to 80% prepare for what I think I’ll need that will cost me 20% of my available capital? In other words, where can I get my biggest preparedness bang for the non-proverbial buck. This approach keeps my prodigious imagination in check.

More importantly, what am I preparing for? What do I really think is going to happen and given my circumstances what should I do to react? I can’t tell you how to answer that, but I can tell you that stockpiling 2 years worth of MRE’s is probably a waste of money. In response to my first article in this series, many of the people who contacted me offered to me that I wasn’t alone in this; that I had family and friends to rely on. They were, of course, right. I came to realize this through time. Our actions (and ideas) had consequences and affected those around us to want to find their place within our division of labor. I guess it is that whole, ‘if you build it,’ thing. Well, in my case it was.

I’ve decided that I can’t prepare for the total breakdown of all things good and decent. I won’t go there. Moreover, it’s not cost-effective and likely a waste of my precious time on this planet. The most surprising thing that happened on my way to the pocky’clipse is that I’m not preparing for it anymore. I’ve come to realize that I have to have faith in people’s ability to adapt and be resourceful; responding to the incentives before them. We’ve built so many great things because of our ability to press our personal comparative advantages, it seems silly to think that that will not continue in the face of some kind of monetary spasm. If capitalism truly did build everything good in the world, and I subscribe to that belief, shouldn’t I act accordingly? If I’m wrong. Oh well. There was likely nothing I could do about it anyways. The priorities we’ve set now involve shoring up the basics of food and water while having those preparations serve as good uses of our time/money in case we’re wrong, hedging our bets and changing the overall direction of our lives. I’ll go into the specifics in a future article. There is always that possibility that the Sword of Damocles will not fall as hard or as swift as we think it will. In such a case, all that bottled water and ammunition will look pretty silly won’t it?

Ta,

Thomas Luongo is a professional chemist, amateur economist and obstreperous recovering Yankee residing in North Florida.Visit Thomas Luongo’s Face Book Page.

This article was originally published at LewRockwell.com and has been reprinted with permission from the author.

Copyright © 2010 Thomas Luongo