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    Rawles: ‘If the Power Grid Goes Down, I Would Not Recommend Being In a Town of More Than 500 Population’

    Mac Slavo
    September 3rd, 2010
    SHTFplan.com
    Comments (82)
    Read by 4,947 people

    Author of How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It James Rawles joins Reginald Kaigler and Doc of The Watchmen for a discussion about potential collapse scenarios and ways to survive if a catastrophic event were to occur.

    Some of the topics covered include:

    • Collapse triggers
    • Die off scenarios
    • Food storage techniques
    • Antibiotics
    • Weapons and Ammo

    This is one we recommend you listen to in full.

    (Interview follows excerpts and commentary)

    James Rawles on events that may trigger catastrophe:

    There are so many different scenarios. If we were to just look at the current economic situation I think the big trigger will be the repudiation of American treasury paper by foreign investors. If they say, he we’re not going to roll over the American treasury paper anymore, we’re going to take our ball and bat and go home, then that very well could trigger an economic meltdown starting with a collapse in confidence of the United States dollar and it could very quickly click over into a mass inflation – very quickly followed by major rioting in the major cities and the whole cascade from there a lot like how I described in my novel [Patriots].

    But there’s umpteen other scenarios.  You know there’s a flake [sic] scenario, there’s a global war scenario, nuclear war scenarios – there’s so many different things that can go wrong and any number of different reasons why life as we know it could cease very quickly.

    There are obviously a variety of different, unrelated situations that our society could encounter that would end “life as we know it.” Now, this does not necessarily mean that the entire globe will be wiped out by an asteroid the size of Texas (though, we won’t completely rule this out as a possibility). What the end of the world as we know it actually means is that we could see a complete shift in how our society operates, meaning that  there may not be paper currency, ATM machines, movie theaters, or Starbucks coffees on every corner – perhaps for a time all commerce and trade would come to a screeching halt until whatever caused the imbalance begins to recover.

    Scenarios like this are not only likely, but occur regularly as evidenced by the many wars of the past century, hyperinflation (i.e. Zimbabwe, Weimar), and natural disasters (i.e. Hurricane Rita and the Asian Tsunami). Rather than watching these catastrophes playing out on television or in history books, to truly prepare yourself and your family for potential catastrophes, it is important to think in terms of them happening to you directly and to consider how you would respond.

    James Rawles on Grid Scenarios:

    Once you get past about 500 people, it really becomes unmanageable, especially with no radio communications and no phones to think that you can pull together as a community. Once you lose that sense of community, it’s basically every man for himself. I think people will go kind of Mad Max in an absolute worst case with the power grid down.

    We’re looking at two different situations. Again, in the former situation where the power grid stays up, you might do well in a city of five or ten thousand people.

    If the power grid goes down, again, I would not recommend being in a town of more than 500 population.

    There’s definitely going to be a public health crisis at the very least, if not a situation where the cities become absolutely unlivable very quickly – I’m talking within two weeks.

    Mr. Rawles points out the potential for “every man for himself” Mad Max scenarios as being likely outcomes in the event of a down grid. Whether you’re in the city or in rural parts of America you will either be the one looking for food and resources because you didn’t prepare, or you will be the one defending against Mad Max with a full belly and a self defense strategy.

    Winter vs. Summer:

    If we were to have the onset of a collapse in summertime we’d see a public health crisis very quickly. If it were to happen mid-winter we’d actually see more people dieing of exposure, dieing of the cold, than we would of dieing of disease, especially int he Eastern United States and the North East.

    It doesn’t take too long a period before blankets are insufficient – people don’t have any alternate source of heat they’ll be freezing to death in large numbers.

    Then what happens in the next spring when everything thaws out? Then you have a really big public health crisis because not only are you worried about human waste – you’re also worried about thousands upon thousands of unburied bodies.

    We could be in a situation where we literally could see a 90% die-off in the major metropolitan regions. Ninety percent population loss and that’s just based on loss of the power grid alone, not counting the violence of people as food supplies dwindle, going from house to house taking what little is left – fighting over the scraps in effect.

    A recent report from the Center for Security Policy suggests that Mr. Rawles’ estimation of a 90% die-off is right on target, as previously discussed in Within One Year 9 Out of 10 Americans Would Be Dead.

    What to do:

    I highly recommend that if any of your listeners have the opportunity, if they’re self employed or if they can find employment, or if they’re retired, that they move to a lightly populated rural region that’s in a food producing area. In the event of a true worst-case scenario, I refer to it as When the Schumer Hits the Fan, that’s going to be your safest place to be. There, the population loss will be minimal.

    But otherwise, in a grid down collapse that goes on for more than a year, we literally could see a 90% population loss in the big cities, and a 50% population loss in the suburbs and as much as a 40% loss in non-viable rural areas – I’m talking desert regions or other areas where there’s not a lot of agriculture that goes on.

    Consider that it’s not just James Rawles – survivalist – that is recommending getting out of big cities. But economists like Dr. Marc Faber, who recently suggested the same strategy and said that you should Protect Your Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons and Dobermans. Billionaire John Malone has a bug-out location on the Canadian border, and a prominent hedge fund manager recently said he has a place in Idaho that you could hole up in if something went wrong.

    Thus, if you often times feel like being a prepper means you’re disconnected from reality or that your friends think your crazy, just consider that Norway has built a massive Doomsday Seed Vault 600 feet above sea level and the US government is stockpiling weapons, food and equipment in underground bunkers around the country. Why would government organizations be stockpiling these things and preparing back-up plans if there was no possibility of the shit hitting the fan?

    Shouldn’t you be doing something similar? (Because let’s be clear – those stockpiles the government has are not going to be for you or your family)

    Listen to the interview with James Rawles:

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    Author: Mac Slavo
    Views: Read by 4,947 people
    Date: September 3rd, 2010
    Website: www.SHTFplan.com

    Copyright Information: Copyright SHTFplan and Mac Slavo. This content may be freely reproduced in full or in part in digital form with full attribution to the author and a link to www.shtfplan.com. Please contact us for permission to reproduce this content in other media formats.

     

    82 Comments...

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    1. Thumbs up!

      I’m still passing around “Surviving The End Of The World As We Know It” to friends and family. The fifth person (my own Mother) is reading it now.

      While I know it will be hard and I get ridiculed for talking this way, RESET is the only way we’ll ever get this country back. Its a sad fact that about 90% of the population of America cannot handle real freedom. They’d drink, eat, drug, party, whatever themselves to death and take others with them. We’ve become a nation of debt slaves for two reasons:

      1) Most people can’t handle freedom either because they would kill themselves without people around to tell them what to do. Or, they would simply do nothing.

      2) The corruption of the people manipulated the economy/currency. These dishonest people have figured out a way to profit from the excesses and stupidity of the sheople, however, they’ve lumped all of humanity in there and not give the rest of us a chance. While many are just sheople, not wanting to break free or be free, others have the potential and are held in the shackles of fake freedom. Those are the true debt slaves.

    2. RebelYell says:

      All the best to Mr. Rawles… but maybe he should move to a small town of one in population.  I’m ready for some faith in Man because God created us.  I’m ready for some hope in our future… because Jesus died for our individual sins…  these doom guys are the basement nerds that build viruses for our computers… their viruses are mental and distributed via the web to attack your spirit and faith in God.  I think that to think that only bad things will happen is an evil upon itself and not what God and Jesus preached.  I’m ready for Armageddon, but I’m also ready for “Thy will be done on earth as it is in Heaven…”  God bless you and yours!  Oba-bye is done in November… that is worth celebrating!  Go hug your kids and turn off the computer.

    3. Dickster says:

      The fact is when and if the power grid goes down ,you arent going to control the people period .Nobody is prepared enough for such an event  like that .  It will the biggest die of in human history and the government will only hide itself in thier bunkers  while the hords kill themselves above grounds .Rawles said in an article on his website that withen 6 months that 90% of the population will be ded from starvation, Killing each other, sickness and disease . The old folks will die quick because they cant get their medication ,Babys wont be able to get thier food  and  and animals and pets will become food .  the average american doesnt live in a poulation of 500 people  and they dont have unlimited funds to have a such a place to  go to .   The killing and murders will be in mass .Even getting water will be tough !!!!   He said the best way to survive is in the mountains or someplace were you can live for 6 months without being detected or seen .

    4. Durango Kidd says:

      “Insanity will reign in the inner cities of major metro areas and this violence will spread to the suburbs. The mentality and psychology of the population in the major metro areas is very different than that of smallville. If these people riot and loot after their pro basketball team wins a championship, what will they do when the SHTF in America and their survival is at stake?”  - SHTF America, Weapons Page

    5. wheedle says:

      One thing I’ve been meaning to do is buy some cast iron cookware. Especially a dutch oven. I’ve got all the Coleman gear I’ll ever need, but being able to cook over a campfire is something I seem to have overlooked. A grid down scenario means no power, and that means fuel for camp stoves and lanterns will become difficult to acquire. Living in NE Florida has its advantages. Don’t have to worry with -10 degree winters and snow drifts. A fire pit in the back yard for cooking won’t require a lot of wood.

      But,,,,,I suspect the southern states would see a mass exodus move in from the north before winter sets in, as many rely on electricity to heat their homes. And most of these folks will only have what they could pack in their vehicles. Meaning that there could be a lot of chaos on the roads before this die off Rawles talks about even occurs. Months of chaos.

      I have to tell you Mac, you sure give us a lot to think about. Finding SHTF Plan has really helped my strategies, and shown me areas I need to work on in my prepping. Thanks :-)

    6. NOYB says:

      Wheedle – I propose that if you are a serious prepper and have the resources to pick up and move, a Northern central or Northwestern state would be a good choice.  Yes, they have long cold winters.  Yes, they have a short growing season.  These are serious considerations.  However, consider those cold winters to be a major plus: the unprepared will succumb quickly, and the weather itself will weed out the weak and stupid.

      If you’re in the South with mild winters and only needing a few blankets for warmth, your primary concern is food.  There is nothing to slow down the Golden Horde for the entire year.  If other people are your primary security concern, I’d think you would have it much worse in the South.

    7. Tom says:

      NOYB:  How are they going to get down to Florida?

    8. GoneWithTheWind says:

      I think he means somethng far worse then simply the grid going down but can’t for some reason express what that is.  If the “grid” goes down I think the worst that will happen is the birth rate will go up.   I think the wild ass guess that 90% will die is ludicrious.  I think that ignoring the very real possibilty that individuals, groups, the government and literally everyone will work to solve problems is the ONLY thing that will allow such a dismal prediction.  I’m betting we all act like humans and set about solving local and national problems.  I’m betting we get the grid up and/or alternatives within weeks.  I can fix almost anything.  I admit without all the right tools and parts it may not be pretty but I can fix it.  This crazy theory could only be offerred by someone who can’t fix diddle squat.

    9. Jonny V says:

      I’m in the northwest, and I’m counting on some really shitty winters when the “reset” finally gets here.  I want it to be cold, wet, frozen, and hard.  The best times to go steelhead fishing is when it’s near freezing and there’s sideways rain.  I figure that the fish are used to getting wet, so they don’t mind, and the weather keeps the villagers inside and off the river.  My best fishing days have been like that.

      In a “reset” scenario, I think that (hope that) conditions are bad enough to make people move south en masse.  I wish they’d start right now as a matter of fact.  With no power, the unprepared will be quickly weeded out.

    10. MadMarkie says:

      Look for something in the middle ground; something between
      1) Happy days are here again & 2) We’re doomed!!!

      Remember Y2K??? We were supposed to be DOOMED!!! then also …. and nothing happened! The world has been coming to an end for as long an history has been recorded.

      We were pleanantly surprised at the number of our neighbors who were walking around armed to the teeth in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma. Get to know your neighbors and have some interaction with them wherever you live ….. before TSHTF.

      God Bless & good luck to all.

    11. Goldenfoxx says:

      Comments….. I’ve read far worse scenarios than Mr. Rawles’ leading up to Y2K, which has always gotten me into the plan and protect mode.  Look at what people did after Katrina hit them.  Some people were thinkers and doers while others went on a looting rampage–including the cops!  Scenarios are good for reading, but if the power does go out there will be trouble for sure.  People living rural will do far better than those living in a city.  The Amish will do well, they’ve been living without electricity forever, and they haven’t died out. They live very well.

    12. laura m. says:

      Lots of excell comments!   I believe too, many would kill themselves because they  can’t get med. care, or have seen their loved ones die and no future for anyone except maybe  those hidden away isolated (rich folks).   I lost faith in people in general over many years, and Rebel Yell, even Christians/friends/relatives can lie, cheat, steal, etc.    during good times!  We all must  prep family, and have close friends for bartering.  I moved in the country in 1985; moved back to the city (125,000 plus) in ’97 because we got older, retired and wanted all the perks.  No calamity happened when we lived in the country (y2k, etc).   So,  all  isolated folks like Rawls:  if nothing happens and you pass away (like recent friends of mine who were hard core preppers did) what good will all this buying up gold, tons of stuff do anyone??  I know from experience, the heirs will dump it all and sell the P.M.s. as  heirs rush to clean things out,  or they call their local food banks to haul it away.  Moderate prepping is ok, but these friends went to extreme; now they are dead and buried.   And I learned from this, it was for nothing!!   Yes, I would love to have  faith in people, so be quiet about your private/family preps and don’t even tell your kids, friends, relatives what your doing!

    13. Rick Halsen says:

      Comments…..

      Some interesting comments.    One thing to remember is that the majority of people up against the wall in such a grid-down situation when no other choices are available around them will tend to instinctably gravitate toward natural food sources.     In this case  coastal regions with its marine life would be one major draw, as would large rivers, and fresh water lakes.   Bigger is better.

      Bottomline is that you want to be close to water.  Big bodies of water.    But preferrably closer to an ocean due to it’s higher levels of variably available inherent food supply.     This is also why having access to water craft is very important as well as not only a way to get to natural food but also as a potential way to escape from grid-locked highways.     You don’t want to be isolated too far from these aspects.      

      With regards to oceans, desalinization plants will be at worst case a source of water  for those fortunate enough to be close enough to take advantage of it.    Water is more important than food as it were as life without it is very short indeed.    Access to water in many different levels buys you time to survive until things stabilize.  

      As to being in areas with populations less than 500 this is all fine and dandy until such time as the rest of the hoardes come to realize that your area is rich with life-sustaining supplies.   Then the lower numbers makes you as an individual a more likely target.    That saying about safety in numbers applies here too.     So my point is this, it’s better to be off by yourself entirely except for immediate and distant neighbors you can rely on for help than to be in any concentrated population density.       The Amish in this case for example simply because they can survive off the grid just makes them in turn a concentrated target for plunder should things get truly that bad.

      Those that are the most mobile and flexible in dealing with different potential disaster scenarios  will be the most comfortable survivors.    I for one will not put my eggs all in one town’s basket no matter how well defended.     Safety is not necessarily in numbers.

          

       

    14. scar says:

      Laura m. -I had an experience when my Grandmother passed away. She had a 180 acre semi- working farm with orchards, two wells, smoke house, huge barn and the house was about 100 years old with a glorious wood stove in the kitchen. The farm was completely paid off. She was 88 YO and always talked about the Great Depression.

      None of her 8 children could be bothered with the farm so it, and everything in it, was sold for peanuts when she passed. They were all greedy to get their hands on the money.  It was in the late 70′s s and values were low for land that far out in the country.

      I’ll never forget when her stash of gold coins were discovered hidden cleverly in the house. They knew she had them and laughed about how the “poor old thing was losing her marbles” keeping gold all those years. They sold hundreds of gold coins to a local coin dealer.

      I was young and had no money and couldn’t talk them into selling the place to me. They just wanted fast cash now, no payment plan.

      As I prep, there is not a week that goes by when I don’t think of that place and my strong, proud Grandmother. How hard she worked, how great she was cooking on that wood stove every day. And how everything she worked hard for her whole life was dumped like so much garbage.

      Oh, the farm? What happen to it was the developers it was sold to leveled all the buildings, the orchards and the woods and built a sub-division of typical plastic and plywood sheeple homes on it.

    15. laura m. says:

      Scar:   My reply:    Many others  have been thru (or heard) this too, I’m sure either with  family,  some relatives, friends  This is why we don’t over do the prepping; it could be all for nothing.  We aren’t into pm’s personally, except the lead and copper ammo types.  Yes, people want to settle a deceased estate asap, and get on with their own lives, as many have to travel  long distance to transact property,  legal matters, etc.   We weren’t raised with the same values and life style as our grandparents;   all the stuff we need or could ever want are right up the road at the local strip mall. walmart, etc. with many grocery stores, drug stores  in  cities.   Yes, even 80 plus yr old folks are used to these perks.   Friends were prepping in the 1980′s I knew (my elders)  most are now dead.  The econ was bad in the early 80′s and prep. books (no internet  or talk radio then) were being sold via newsletters and patriot org. and financial gurus.   I’m not a hard core prepper;  just so so, as I’m now a retiree and  donated  tasteless dehydrated foods to the food bank after y2k was over.    The shelf life was 20 yrs or so,  but I now get canned foods from grocery shelves that are edible and rotate.

    16. wooba says:

      LOL, Y2k, what a joke. Y2k was a very clever marketing pitch that saw the useless eaters line up by the hundreds of millions worldwide to purchase overpriced computers and clear the shelves for the next generation, which were a third the price. Either you have to believe this or you have to believe that some the smartest computer experts were totally incompetent.

      That disaster, like 911, like global warming and a dozen others, was state santioned and media santioned. A scare campain that got all the idiots that live by the blue light of the television, up off their sofas, and into the shops to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in consumer sales. A last ditch infusion of hard earned savings into the IT bubble, right at the peak, right into the blow off top.

      There must have been some hearty laughs around the boardroom tables of Microsoft and Intel that christmas.

      Now we have before us (here on the fringes of the internet, not on the television) a looming disaster that far exceeds any of those engineered disasters. There is no concern from government about it, no concern from mainstream press or academia. Quite the opposite in fact. These leading population controlling institutions refute the claims made here.

      That should tell you all you need to know. But of course, if you spend one or two hours a day, filling your mind with the lies from their television, you will be confused on these issues.

      It amuses me when people tell me they are not influenced by the television programming, that the billions of dollars spent anually on advertising is wasted on them because, unlike everyone else, they can discern reality from the myth portrayed. These people remind me of the old mate I saw once who tried to convince me he was using heroin because he had a bad back. Everyone could see the truth but him. Still, in some corner of his mind he knew the truth also, and he no doubt suffered dreadfully from cognitive dissonance becasue of it. lol

      I suffer no cognitive dissonance over my preparations for the coming collapse. Just the sure knowledge that whatever I acomplish will never be enough to replace the amazing lifestyle I have enjoyed up to now, the twilight of the oil age

    17. Durango Kidd says:

      For those of you talking about relocation, you need to think about what kind of disaster you expect. In a currency collapse anywhere away from the cities is a step in the right direction, and it makes sense to be near large bodies of water; however thats where the sheeple are now so your advantage is nullified and the danger is multiplied. They will want your fishing pole and your fish: not to mention your teenage daughter.

      Small lakes, out of the way, in the mountains, but near small towns and cities, that are stocked by the State (like Arizona does) is a good option.

      In an earth change scenario your options are different. Supply lines will be cut, roads and bridges may be out, so you need to be there to get there. The advantage then is that the “Golden Hoardes” will not be able to get to where you are at. Any thought to move after a disaster strikes should be mitigated by the fact that gasoline will be limited if available at all.

      Keep your tank full and your bug out location within a half a tank of gas or less.

      Gone With The Wind: Your handle here should be “Clueless in Atlanta” instead. If the grid goes down, chaos reigns. Production of replacements has been moved to China. See: SHTF America, Teowawki Page.

    18. oneshotkill says:

      When the power has been out in the town I live in, it’s the best time to drive somewhere because every stop light is treated like a four way stop and traffic moves really smooth. It’s kinda like the town comes together and works as a team. That might be different if they are all hungry but then somebody might feed them as long as they don’t just try to take it. I think there is always some bad apples but according to the legal news them ones is gettin weeded out.

    19. Paul Revere says:

      Rick,
      Most people who go to the coast will die for sure. I have camped out on the beaches of Texas for years and one of the most important resources for survival is lacking in that environment, that being fresh water for drinking.   Now some people will say you can distill saltwater but it will consume much energy or if your using sunlight it will not produce enough output to keep you alive.   Granted, remote seashores will be unpopulated and thereby safe, but eventually corrosion will destroy guns and any other survival objects made of ferrous materials.  Midday heat and nightime cold would also sap a person’s ability to survive the elements over the longer term.   A person should carefully evaluate notions of living in the harsh marine environment.    The best way to prepare is going out on trips to the seashore for days at a time and experiencing the difficulties firsthand so you can adjust your survival techniques accordingly. 

    20. greaseman says:

      Comments…..  I think most people will have to make an estimation of  how bad a situation is, and gauge their decision on that.  There are thousands of possible scenerios.  I live in an urban area.  But I have a garden in my back yard. I have solid neighbors that I have known for 30 plus years. All the neighbors that are around me are armed.  I feel like my best chance at surviving most anything is to stay on familiar ground.
           That being said, if things were truly horrible, we’d go to live with my wife’s folks in another state, one tank of gas away.  They live in the sticks, a farming area with available hunting, fishing, and plenty of food and water.  But I would prefer not to do that.
         If things were pretty bad, I don’t think people would have very long to make up their minds before roads were cut off, and gas supplies shut off.   Everone has to learn to think on their feet, and make quick decisions.  I’m one of those that thinks things would be ok for a week or so.  But if the problem was known to be a long term, you better be formulatiing a mutual protection plan with your neighbors quickly.
           There is no doubt that when people get hungry, they will roam, looking for whatever they can find. Kindness will have no place.  Normally docile people will go lethal when they don’t get their gubmint cheese handout.  I have complete faith that the government emergency supply setup will fail within a few weeks.  After that, you’ll be on your on.  Time to batten down the hartches, and put the wagons in a circle. The police will be busy protecting their own.
         There are many variations on this theme.  I like to have faith in my fellow man.  But I also can see what hunger does to a human.  People will do strange things when they get hungry. You can go ahead and give your food to a hungry passerby. I choose to fire a warning shot over their head before they come on my propeerty.  Many  tough decisions to be made ahead, and no easy answers.
             I also have no doubt that many communities will make an effort to feed people, but in the long run, if the problem is bad enough, this effort will only fail.  And soon enough, it will be every man for himself.  
             I think in addition to physically accumulatiing prep material, we all better figure out how to make life and death decisions soon. These decisions are coming, because the times, they are a changing.
          Good luck all.     
       

    21. infocyde says:

      Don’t want to give anyone ideas, but if the grid goes down, it will be very, very bad.  Worse case scenario comments here from what I understand are pretty accurate. Most of us can’t move, and if the grid goes down we are all so f’ed that most of us will be in that 90% that die off.  Most of us won’t take the time to have 6 months of food laying around, but we are all fools if we don’t have two weeks to 30 days of food and water around.  Having a firearm or two and knowing how to use them I agree (like my opinion matters any) is a good idea.  This will protect us for most non worse case scenarios.  Worst case scenarios, unless you are in a hi tech bunker or a farm out in BFE in a hidden area, aren’t worth worrying to much about because if they come we die.

    22. @GWTW,

      I commend you for your faith in humanity while thinking it may be misplaced. This is not a typical grid down scenario, we’re talking more of a “Grid Gone and It Ain’t Coming Back” scenario.

      When people know the grid is coming back, they just wait to buy food, get gas, go to work. Its kind of like a vacation. However, what we’re talking about is more like getting fired and blacklisted.

      I do think there will be a variance in the response depending on the size of the city. I live near 3 towns. One is 8,000 (5 miles away), one is 300 (2 miles away) and one is 75,000 (15 miles away). I would not expect massive rioting or looting even in the largest city in this situation FOR A WHILE. I think the larger the city, the sooner the golden horde starts causing problems. I guess I see the larger the population, the larger the liability.

      I think JWR is wrong. I think you are wrong. It will be somewhere in between.

      It depends on the city, both size and attitude of the population there.

      I get all goose-pimply when people start talking about a RESET. Jonny V and I think so much alike, its just a bit creepy. I agree with his assessment. For preppers, bad weather is much better. The weed out will be quicker. Actually, for those south, which way do you think the people in the two towns near me will be headed if there is no power? If they have the means, they’ll head south where its warmer. But, like anything, south, you’ll have to deal with security more, cold less. North, more cold, less worry of security. Everyone needs to assess these conditions NOW and be thinking about it.

      …and like some people have said, don’t over prep. Maintain that level of preps that you think are appropriate. I read the story of the grandmother and the farm where she had gobs of gold coins and other preps, just in case. It was NOT for nothing! It gave her piece of mind! Thats worth a lot. She’s on to her next assignment, she has no worries here anymore.

      As the threat level increases, I increase my preps. As they decrease, I decrease the preps. I’ve kind of been prepping for many years. Just remember this: Even if you don’t have a single prep and you know you should, you’re already halfway there. You’ve fought and won’t the normalcy bias battle and, while you may not be comfortable when TSHTF, you’ll at least be able to land on your feet.

      As I said before it won’t be as good or as bad as we think. RESET will be painful. We’ll get through it. Well, most of us will. I’ll have to say, as I have studied society more and more, sadly, the term useless eaters may not be far from the truth. In the nanny state, when nanny is dead, the people that have fallen victim to the illegitimate government programming will suffer.

    23. Greaseman says, “I also have no doubt that many communities will make an effort to feed people, but in the long run, if the problem is bad enough, this effort will only fail.  And soon enough, it will be every man for himself.”

      I say that I agree. I also say if you are well prepped, you better be there asking for help just the same. If you are not, people will know that you’ve got a stash… and that will be VERY bad. While us hackers denounce security through obscurity, its really using it as PRIMARY security. Obscurity is just another tool for security. You want to appear to be in bad shape just like your neighbors.

    24. wheedle says:

      Lots of good information and insight in the comment discussions.
      I have a “Bug Out Plan” and a “Bug In Plan”. But odds are I will have to stay put during a crisis as I don’t have the financial resources to move.
      I live in a rural area surrounded by roads. I could grow my own food, maybe raise some chickens and rabbits. But that could become a neon sign for marauders. For now my preps are scattered and hidden so that I’ll still have a stash or two left if I get robbed. I agree that knowing your neighbors now will help create alliances later.
      You can fish year around in Florida, but a SHTF scenario would require a firearm and perhaps a companion or two for the sake of safety. Lakes and rivers are abundant, not to mention the ocean. I suspect a lot of fishing will take place whether people have fishing license or not. The limit will be defined by how many fish you can carry.
      My kids are grown and love the outdoors. I believe they would keep most of my preps when I leave this world. But when I’m gone they will have to decide what’s important to them.
      I expect local law enforcement will take the necessary measures needed to dispense with the local criminals, and communities will unite to combat any marauders foolish enough to go against high powered, scoped hunting rifles.

      In short, I believe we all stand a very good chance of survivng whatever comes our way. Because we are taking steps to insure we can overcome obstacles that could arise in our given areas.
      Proverbs 27:12   ‘ The prudent see danger and take refuge,,,’.
                                               Good Luck To All

    25. Comments…..
      The Amish will do well, they’ve been living without electricity forever, and they haven’t died out. They live very well.

      Having an Amish family within one mile of my home in Ky, you are soooo out of touch with the Amish lifestyle…

    26. Durango Kidd says:

      The Flood in Pakistan has many lessons for us all, I think. Eight million people affected. Thirty days into the crisis. Its going to start getting real nasty, real soon.

      Don’t think it can’t happen here. The BIG one in southern cal would impact twice as many people.

    27. Tom says:

      A prudent person would make sure that oneself & family are up to date on all shots as if they were traveling over seas to 3rd world countries.  Better to stand in short lines than long lines.  I won’t be standing in any lines after.  Very few people even know what the martial law in their state consists of.  I have never been able to look up on line for my state but have read it in hard cover.  It surprised me.  Think Katrina.

    28. Dave says:

      I doubt that “90% die off” figure.
      Sure,there will be many deaths,but humanity existed for many millenia before the first jolt of current was created in some lab.

    29. Comments…..how can anyone take this seriously when the author uses words he doesn’t know how to spell?   there is something lacking when you’re trying to read something of such importance and this mistake happens over and over again.  something to consider -

    30. Sam says:

      Comments…..Dave, resets happene all the time it’s just the way nature works, I would have to diagree that 90% will die off in the first 6 months, but in the long run as things take their course the survival rate will be less than 5% .  Study the cycle of salmon, when it comes time to go back upstream the survival rate is bewtween 2-3 % at best, and we are no different. Survival of the fittest applies to man as well, the difference between us and the animal world is the animal depend on brute strenght, our survival is based on more than that.
      Man is giffted with foresight which no other creature has, if you can see the future accurately as Noah has you will build your boat in due time if not you drown like everbody else.
      Faith, foresight,and preperation is everything.
      Good luck to all.

    31. Goldenfoxx says:

      Comments…..JJ
      September 4th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
      Comments…..
      The Amish will do well, they’ve been living without electricity forever, and they haven’t died out. They live very well.
      Having an Amish family within one mile of my home in Ky, you are soooo out of touch with the Amish lifestyle…
      ———————–
       
      Are they still using buggy’s for transportation?  Are they watching Oprah every day?  Have the come out of the closet yet?

    32. GoneWithTheWind says:

      You said: “If the grid goes down, chaos reigns. Production of replacements has been moved to China. See: SHTF America, Teowawki Page.”
      But what does that mean?  I think it is intentionally vague.  Fine, you don’t know what will happen anymore then anyone does.  But then you jump the shark and come to conclusions that could only be based on “knowing what will happen”!!  DUH!  What, exactly, does it mean to say “if the power grid goes down” or the more encompassing “grid down”??  Clearly when you predict 90% die off and massive rioting and zero government you mean something far bigger then “grid down”.  I think you are trying to have it both ways.  That is you don’t know what will happen, you want to prepare for the worst case scenario but at the same time you know that describing the worst case scenario turns off anyone with both feet on the ground.  So you use the code phrase “grid down” and then describe some doomsday situation that is unlikely to be the result of a “grid down” problem.   The simple fact is if we lose any of the trappings of modern 1st world society life will get a lot harder.  I am not doubting that.  What I am doubting is that we will all go tits up and give up.  People have much more reserve then they think.  Sure some will continue to depend on others but many will immediately begin doing what they must and after a short time most will follow suit.  We are the same people who crossed the wide prairie, survived the great depression, fought WW II.  Why would you think we will just give up?
       
       

    33. stan says:

      There will not be a 90% die off.  At the most it would be 30%.  
      Come on guys.  How many of you guys were “swine flu believers”?  
      I never was.  Get real guys. 

    34. Sam says:

      Comments…..Stan, what is coming is not some BS. swine flu/mad cow scare, I’m not just talking about the grid going down, we will have many challenges to face, civil war being the main one combine that with shortage of food (famine), disease and natural disasters. I agree that 90% death rate in the first six months is far fetched, but 95% over a period of 19 years  starting the year 2016 -2034  is not out of line. I won’t go into details of how I came up with the timing, but my math shows a speedy declinge from now till 2016, then SHTF from there on, people will die off gradually over a period of time, this isn’t a six months scenario.

    35. Lady Hawk says:

      Comments….
      We preppers refer to those not prepping as sheeple, zombies, soon to be useless eaters, to name a few terms. Why is that? Is it because they choose to disengage their intellect to misinterpret and ignore signs and events as to the coming times?   As I read the posts here from those I consider as like minded, I agree with NetRanger  “… Even if you don’t have a single prep and you know you should, you’re already halfway there. You’ve fought and won’t (won) the normalcy bias battle and, while you may not be comfortable when TSHTF, you’ll at least be able to land on your feet…”

      For forty years, I’ve been a voracious consumer and reader of history, people and events and believe an old saying, “to learn about your future, you need only study your past.”  For over twenty five years, I’ve been prepping for more then the grid going down or economical collapse.  In discussions with others those many years ago, on what is actually coming to fruition now, prepping then was considered synonymous with craziness or extremism which resulted in getting side way looks and their having somewhere else to go. It feels good to be vindicated to some degree.  Cause what I post next will get me snide posts and those side way glances again.

      I only do so, because many like minded folks have come to the fire and realization the future will be way different then the past and are prepping for the changes. Yeah!  Yet, I wonder how come these like minded folks can dance away from the fire when it comes to using their reasoning skills to research, investigate and prepare for the on the horizon recurring cataclysm – Planet of the Crossing? The event requires similar preps. It’s the location thing that is worrisome. The event is global, but the US is again blessed in we have so much survivable land and territory. Reading posts of like minded folks and their survival locations, some areas shout danger as parts of the world are already experiencing plate lifting, tilting and sub-ducting.  Examples are the increase in the seismic and number of earthquakes and volcano eruptions.  Haiti, with it’s previous unknown fault and Pakistan’s Eurasian, Indo-Australian Plates in motion. Then there are the extreme weather patterns. Coincidence? Or matches to previous pre-cursors of events of a celestial object approaching?

      There are historical records along with oral legends that have lead to celestial and archeological sites and finds supporting such recurring events.  My favorite is writings by Solon, a Greek historian and statesman of 600 BC who traveled to Egypt, then a very advanced culture.  He was studying with ancient Egyptian priests. The priests told Solon about the recurring catastrophe (they were also aware of the signs indicating the return of the celestial object and aided in preparing the populace and recording events) and that many many civilizations throughout history had been wiped out with their written and recorded history, forcing them to start over again.  Greece was one of those with Solon only knowing the history of the Great Flood and missing previous fire/inundations.  The  Egyptian priests stated those Greek survivors were “destitute of letters and education.” “…and you (Solon) did not know this because for many generations the survivors of that last destruction made no records…”

      Given a 3600 year orbit it is understandable why our society today has no remembrance of these past global cataclysms.  Reading an ancient text such as Ipuwer Papyrus, which a copy is in the Museum of Leiden in the Netherlands, it describes a massive cataclysm as all is ruin and waste.  So Dave, regarding “…I doubt that “90% die off” figure…”  Globally?  A Wormwood event?  I don’t. 

      .

    36. Durango Kidd says:

      GWTW;  I did not suggest that 90% will die, but 10% will be more than 30 million people. Life will not just get a lot harder. It will move to survival mode. How many people of the many tens of millions of people in the inner city, know how to farm, or sprout, grow tomatos, or an ear of corn? Where are these people going to get their food? Even if they grow it in an a vacant lot they will have to protect it at harvest time from someone or group who will be more than willing to take it from them by force.

      “What that means” is when the grid goes down for any length of time, there will not be enough food for the many tens of millions of people in our major cities because there will not be any electricity to run the machines and equipment we rely on in a modern society. You won’t be able to pump gasoline, water, or sewage. And you will not be able to go down to Mickey D’s for a Happy Meal. McDonald’s will be closed.

      When people get hungry and thirsty, or cold or hot, they get irritable. When their survival is at stake they get angry. When their life is in jepoardy and they must eat or starve and the governments resources have been overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the disaster, residents of the inner city will go bonkers! Chaos will reign. If you cannot grasp that idea you are “Clueless”!

      Government experts predict four to ten years to replace and/or repair the grid. What do you think these people are going to be doing if there is no electricity in their homes, or at work, in ninety days, six  months? The economy will collapse in a matter of weeks.

      These people live payday to payday; or on government checks, month to month. They will not have the income from employment because businesses will not be able to operate. Good luck operating that ATM to get cash from unemployment, there’s no electricity!

      Sure the Amish will survive but the Sheeple in the inner cities without the conveniences of modern life, and/or with preps, will not be able to adapt sucessfully. Their idea of adaption will be to take what they can get wherever, whenever, and however they can. That is the basic survival instinct. When they try to adapt that way with their neighbor who is armed, someone will die. Tens of thousands will die that way. It becomes you and your family or them and their family. That will be the brutal truth and grim reality that we will face.

      You are the one that is clueless. I know exactly what will happen because I know and understand the psychology of inner city residents, I understand WAR, and have seen the struggle for survival overseas.  If the grid goes down for any length of time, it will mean WAR between those that have and those that need, and those that need will justify their behavior because they are fighting for survival. America will become a third world country.

      If the grid goes down for any length of time, its not just an inconvenience, its life threatening for those in the city. How is it that you do not grasp that fact? Do you live in a clear plastic bubble and wear roses colored glasses? Obviously, life has never reached out and slapped you in the face! Too bad, its good experience: it helps an individual to grow, mature, and evolve. You must be very young and very sheltered not to understand the consequences of this kind of event. Post less, read more.

      GWTW you are Clueless in Atlanta and need a serious reality check. Go to SHTF America. READ every page. If you don’t understand then, that we are in The Last Days and the SWHTF in America soon; there is nothing I or anyone posting on this page can do for you.

      Eventually, you will be a statistic. If you do not want to be a statistic, get informed, and get prepped.

    37. greaseman says:

      Comments….. I think sometime, people underestimate the extent of a truly earth changing event, simply because it hasn’t happened in recent recorded history.  History, that very important word, again, points us in the right direction, as ladyHawk superbly pointed out.  Most humans tend to ignore ancient history, and concentrate only on a couple of generations back. But as we will probably find out soon enough, history repeats itself, over and over.
           If you take some of the major natural disasters that have occured in previous centuries, it’s easy to envision large percentages of the populations being decimated overnight. I tend to think the “thinning of the herd” will take a little longer, but large chunks of populations could easily dissapear overnight. it’s already happened.
          As I read these blogs, something that sticks out in my mind, is the reported statements that only a very small percentage of the population is doing any kind of prep. On the good side, especially where I live, in Florida, it is common for people to put up at least a few days worth of food for hurricane prep.  But I feel that the masses will never catch on, and continue to believe the government will take care of them, no matter what happens.
          In that same trian of thought, I heard that only a very small percentage of people will ever buy any gold or silver, as little as 5 % of the population.  To me, when the banking problems really become apparent, the other 95% will go crazy, trying to buy whatever they can at any price.
             The whole crux of this post is, we all should be studying history, because it will tell us what’s coming. The bad part is, none of it is going to be good.  We have the deck stacked against us. If a bad economy isn’t bad enough, there is surely something strange going on with the earth changes.  I don’t think anyone can deny that death and destruction will be the end result of both of these events.  Just how much remains to be seen. good luck folks–we’ll need all we can get.

    38. Durango Kidd says:

      GWTW: I just had a thought, think you should try a little experiment. I have tried it for the experience to see how much will power and self discipline that I could muster. You try it. I am not asking you to do something that I have not done.

      Go without food and water for three days. Just three days. No food. No water. No juice. No nothing. Ok, I’ll tell you what. You can have ALL of the water you want. Just H20. No sugar, no nothing else.

      Listen to your stomach growl. Feel the knawing in the pit of your stomach because it is empty. By the end of the second day, you should start to feel your skin tingle. Its the “burn” like you get after a good work out. Only its not the fat that is burning here. Its the muscles that are being consumed by the body for the protein. If you drink lots and lots of water and have extra weight, it might take another day to “hit”.

      Then you come back to this post and tell me that I don’t know what I am talking about with respect to teotwawki and the mentality of the inner city residents.

      Three days. 72 hours. Thats all I ask of you.

    39. Comments…..there are many people that have gone 72 hours w/o eating or drinking.  personally, I have gone on 72 hour fasts. This is very common amongst people who undergo routine cleanses. Water is OK.  nothing new – fasting 72 hours is actually very good for you. 

    40. Durango Kidd says:

      MB: yes it is. So I have placed GWTW in no danger. But if you are use to eating at set times or for comfort. 72 hs does require a little bit of discipline and just enough to recognize how many tens of millions of inner city residents will react when they are hungry.

      It will not be pretty.

    41. Tom says:

      Good example DK.  I say those that you are trying to speak to go for a week while working hard during temperature extremes.  Throw in a lot of mental difficulty also. 

    42. TnAndy says:

      One thing about the Amish…..they may not use electricity directly, but they certainly benefit from it.  The kerosene they burn in their lamps, or any time they order something from Lehmans of Ohio, they definitely use it INdirectly.  While no doubt they live a much more simple life, they will also hurt.

      Those that doubt a VERY high die off figure simply have their heads up their ass.  If the grid goes down for any extended period due to EMP, CME,  then it basically isn’t coming back for a long time due to the fact it TAKES ELECTRICITY to manufacture the components that will need replacing.  Without electricity, almost all forms of energy STOP…no fuel, no natural gas.  That means food stops….water stops…..sewer service stops…..cities will be uninhabitable in a week or two, tops.

      You doubt that figure ?  Turn off your own power, and don’t drive your car for a month.  Get a small clue of what it will be like.

      You folks better HOPE LIKE HELL it never happens…..

    43. Jonny V says:

      Durango Kidd, Tom, GWTW, TnAndy, hell the whole lot of ya!  If someone like one of us sits down and decides to fast for 72 hours, we could probably make it.  We are trying to prep ourselves for the times when you may need to do that.  Someone living in the city, gorfing down mcdonalds and diary queen four times a day has no chance at all.  I spent the day in the city today, and I can report that NONE of these idiots can fast for 7 hours, let alone 72.  Durango Kidd is right, the inner cities are gonna be an absolute war zone.

      TnAndy makes good points about our grid too.  The grid is a huge house of cards, assembled in the cheapest, fastest, most slap-dash manner TPTB could come up with.  Witness the big power outages on the east coast a couple years back.  That was caused by one transformer in one neighborhood in the middle of bum-fuck Ohio.  A rat getting himself electrocuted in the wrong spot might bring down the grid over half the USA.   The high die-off estimates are a lot closer to reality than many people would like.

    44. jrharvil says:

      No one will have electricity, so were all on even ground. However, contrarily, those of us left in the city will be much safer than Mr Rawles will be way out in BFE. The only real difference is the time frame in which the roving hordes will pass through, and what kind of people you will have to deal with as they pass through?
      It’s my belief that most city people will either have long term preps or they will die, be killed, be eaten, or will leave the inner city in search of food and safety. Once they leave, it’s my opinion that they will never return. This will leave the cities void of supplies, and very under populated. I don’t believe that gangs will setup a home base in a city that has been picked clean and evacuated. They are more likely to go out to the country where food crops are known to grow, and then try to help themselves, its just more efficient.
      I live in a large suburb of Houston. I will be “bugging in” regardless of the SHTF scenario. I am 12 month prepped, and have a small group of neighbors who are willing to work together for OA security and to get us through the first several months as all the hordes of people pass through on their way out of the city.
      Like the ripples of a pebble dropped in a pond, the people who pass through first will be mostly regular people who will not yet be experienced enough to form very effective looting groups. However, the ones who do live the longest, and travel out the furthest, will be the ones who know how to plan raids and kill for what they want.
      So I will take my chances with my preps, defend my property, drink from my well, and sleep in my bed. Unless of course we are nuked, and in that case, I will die on my property, and be eaten by my cockroaches, which by the way, can last much longer than 3 days without food and water.

    45. Fed Up In Tx says:

      Plan for the worst and pray for the best.  Whether it is 90%, 10% or somewhere in between, we can only do what we can do.  Prepare mentally and physically.

      And if the grid goes to shit, we are all in for a ride.  We may be prepared and ready, but I truly doubt any of us is truly prepared for the mental change in lifestyle.  It is one thing to have a preparedness weekend, but know you don’t have a choice will be much tougher.  Its not always the physical that gets you.

      And just for the record, I can’t see a 90% die off.  Too many rural areas exist where the communities prepare without knowing it and they will stick together more than you think.  100 plus years of true community bonding will hold a lot of these places together.  They will rally together as families and church families and skew the numbers from the inner city.

    46. Lady Hawk says:

      Comments…..
      Sigh!  Don’t mean to be starting something, but it has been my experience when discussing prepping on forums such as this one – the majority posting are of European descent. It has also been my experience when scenarios are proposed concerning rural versus city, the words “inner city”  is the catch all to define watch out for people of color which comes with negative perceptions like looting, lawless, druggies, lazy, shiftless, sucking the government dole tit - colored people, which Whitey needs to prepare to defend themselves from if SHTF.  Have I got that right?

      Well, heads up. There is a history lesson here. The reason the slave masters went to Africa for laborers was because the indigenous   tribes here which they first tried to enslave, couldn’t withstand the rigors of slavery and plantation field work.  Africans were of heartier stock and endured capture, imprisonment, shipping, auction, murder, rape and breeding.  Since the slaves, which were my grandparents, did the actual work of digging, planting, farming, black smithing, fencing, animal husbandry and slaughter, aquatics, cooking, canning, mid wife-ing by subsisting eating pigs intestines, ears, feet, chicken organs, hog cheese, brains, tongue, feed grain, weeds, greens, water cress, chick a pee tea, making and using herbs and potions for medicinal needs.  We have demonstrated our will and ability to survive in hostile environments.

      Ancestral knowledge has been passed on to us who still continue traditions and recipes like preparing chittlings, pork rinds, fried corn bread, wild sweet potatoes and greens on the holiday menu.  I propose, descendents of slaves are more adapt to surviving a SHTF scenario then European city dwellers that have had those cushy overseer - computer jobs who now are sucking government disability checks cause there backs are weak along with their women who have had several children and are the major receivers of government dole money. Maybe city “inner city” dweller/zombies should be profiled as anyone hungry and desperate enough to do harm to you and yours no matter what the color of their skin. In my case, I’ll do what I need to do.  That’s why I’ve taken NRA’s Deadly Force  training. Equal opportunity shooter.

    47. greaseman says:

      Comments….. Back a few years ago, here in Florida, it was one of those years that we had one of those freakish hurricane seasons.  For a while, it was one after the other. Well, sooner or later, you’ll usually catch one of them.  We did here in central Fl.
             Some of my friends were without power for 3 weeks. At my home, we were without power for 3 days.  Now that’s not much of a problem if you’ve done just a little prep. But it’s a good reminder, and a prep for a much longer run of time.  I have a generator, and stores of gasoline, so I didn’t loose anything stored in my freezer. The generator allowed me to have water from my well, flush toilets, take showers, and other convienences.  But it’s not big enough to run my airconditioner.  Anyway, the whole thing kind of remimded me of camping out with convienences. Not much of a problem, but for long periods of time, I would certainly run out of fuel.  after that, it would just be like camping out with no convienences.
            What I gathered from this experience, is that if you have done even a reasonable ammount of prep, things will go easier, but I could see where if a problem went on for months, things could get a little primative. 
            I’m thankfull of my camping experience from my childhood.  I found out how little a person could get along on staying out in the woods.  But that was many moons ago.  Sleeping on the ground , and eating a cold can of beenie weenies will only get you so far as an adult.  But the skills learned as a young camper have never left me.
            When the grid does go down, and we all know it will sooner or later, I think we’ll all find out what we’re made of.  I’m lucky to have 34 plus years of industrial maintenance experience in my background. This helps me to improvise in different situations where I might not have exactly the right material I need to fix something. Adapting and improvising will be a much needed skill in the future.  learn as many practical skillls as you can now.  I can promise you, when the grid fails, you’lll get a chance to use them. good luck all.

    48. TnAndy says:

      Lady Hawk:

      Surely you jest ?  

      Did you miss the whole Katrina mess ?  Gobs of “your folks” standing around at the Super Dome hollering “WE NEED HEPPPPP ”

      The theory you state might have been true at one point in history, but just like whitey, the vast majority of ALL color of folks are fat, dumb and lazy.

      I’m glad you don’t seem to fit that mold, and most likely you’d be welcome around my campfire….but only after you pull the blinders off your eyes and get past the race thing.

    49. Fed Up In TX says:

      Ladyhawk,

      Inner city to me means those who have been born, raised and still live in a city to the point where they have no clue how to hoe a garden, dig potatoes, milk a cow, doctor a calf, build a solid barb wire fence, hunt – kill – and process any number of game animals, and various other things that those who grew up or live in the rural areas know how to do.  City dwellers can be white, black, brown, or even green for all I care.  But 90% are clueless of how to live like they would if the SHTF in a major long term way.  They are too entrenched in the lifestyle of calling out for pizza, or running to the store for a coke, or just hanging out and watching the 60 inch TV all day.

      As far as “people of color” being of “hearty stock”, physical strength never replaces knowledge, wisdom, and preparedness.  Just because they can physically do something doesn’t mean a thing if they have no clue or desire to.   Katrina proved that in every community, there are those who prepare and survive via self reliance and those that wait on someone else.  You would be better to break things up in prepared vs unprepared.  And I submit to you that if you really analyze it, the rural areas and the people who live or were raised there are by percentage more prepared via culture.  

    50. Jonny V says:

      Lady Hawk, don’t mean to be starting up any unrest around here.  For the record, the types of people I was referring to where city dwellers who were obviously entitled to everything that the Earth could offer.  I saw more three and four hundred pound people yesterday than I ever thought I would.  I am not bigoted and don’t really care about race, I’m talking about folks living the “city life” of mass consumption and total un-sustainability.  They are ZOMBIES in every sense of the word.

    51. Dreamland says:

       The reason for the African slave trade was because for thousands of years Africans traded in slaves.  That is what each of the tribes did with captives from wars.  The Arabs/muslims took advantage of this situation and became the interntaional slave traders with most of the African slaves being provided to them by African tribes.  They didn’t chose Africans as slaves because they were better suited for field labor they did it because the Arabs/muslims had already established a slae trading business.

      An interesting historical side note:  There were more white Europeans enslaved in Africa then there were Africans slaves brought to the new world.  The Arabs/Muslims in Northern Africa would make raids into European coastal cities taking off slaves, mostly young white women for harems, but also men and boys to do the back breaking labor of building the cities and mosques of the Muslim empire. 

    52. GoneWithTheWind says:

      If “the grid goes down” workers will begin bringing it back up within minutes.  In the loosely defined “grid down” situation where the entire grid goes down (unlikely) then parts of the grid would be brought back within hours, most of it within days.  Your knowledge of the grid seems limited.  This is why I said that the expression “grid down” is merely double speak for something else.  If you mean WW III or nuclear war say so.  If you mean earth changes or a massive asteroid hit then say so.  But if you truly mean “grid down” then you are grossly exaggerating the likely results of an unlikely event.
      As for going without food for 72 hours I fully understand your point.  I am indeed a prepper but I refuse to be lead into believing anyone has the inside track about what is going to happen.  I fully believe in preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  What I see as the most likely event to prepare for is an economic collapse or depression.  It is quite possible that we will pull out of this current “recession” but given our debt we will face some kind of “double dip” or prolonged economic crisis.  It is equally likely that we are looking at the precipice of the next great depression and we won’t pull out of this crisis.  I do not expect it to be as simple as a long downhill slide.  I would expect a more roller coaster kind of ride with good times and bad times.  I fully expect it to get bad once it starts, especially because most of us today are so unprepared for surviving a depression whereas in the 30’s most people lived on the land or had close family who lived on the land.  I do not think it is hopeless.  One thing to remember is that although the great depression was a true long emergency most people survived it and came out of it stronger.  There was no “die off”, not even a .01% never mind the crazy estimates thrown around here of 90%. 
      I think people will pull together not apart.  I think those who can fix things will do exactly that.  I can fix any car/truck, any appliance, almost anything electrical, I can weld, machine and fabricate.  There are a lot of people who can do these things.  Some will do it for free for their neighbors and others will do it for food or pay.  If/when this crisis worsens I think most Americans will shine not loot.  Sure the media (if we still have TV) will mostly show the looters but that is not the same things as there only being looters.  I do believe hard times are ahead of us but I will not hunker down I will reach out.  I am 67 years old and I didn’t want my retirement to be spent taking care of children and grandchildren but I am ready to do that if TSHTF.  I now see that my diverse work history, training, experiences and hobbies have prepared me to survive and thrive in a “grid down” or economic collapse.  If this is my/our future then I will do my best to meet it and beat it.  I am betting on Americans not against them.

    53. Lady Hawk says:

      Comments…..
      Re:  Inner City folk.  I started to go through threads and posts on this forum to underscore my point there is a veiled underlying denigrating tone when referencing scenarios involving the city and inner city populous.  Those I found were off the cuff remarks warning of what could and would happen if those (Katrina) hoards leave the confines of their environment to forge in the countryside, and somehow Oprah gets thrown in there too. (Why Oprah?)  You see no veiled references?  I like the posters, so will leave it there.

      My point is city and inner city folk come in all colors, but it seems that even before the SHTF, some people have already divided, excluded, profiled and segregated certain elements of society.  Assumptions are being made because they live in the city, they have forgotten their farming, fishing and hunting roots. I’m pointing out most folks of color up to WW II were farming and working the land. It is the culture we come from and in the south many remain. So I disagree 90% are clueless.  When it comes to nut cutting time and the choices are eat or die, it’s been proven even the dumbasses get off them and everyone’s hands fit a shovel.

      “Did you miss the whole Katrina mess ? Gobs of “your folks” standing around at the Super Dome hollering “WE NEED HEPPPPP ….”  “…but only after you pull the blinders off your eyes and get past the race thing…”   Yep, those were my folks. If you know your history,  you know why so many were congregated in that location.  You are the one that saw only black faces – race.  I saw a class of people. Poor people and they too come in all colors. When Florida had those big hurricanes, I saw poor people - the majority were white faces, begging for water, shelter and help too.  I didn’t think of it as a race issue.  Some folks just don’t get it.

    54. Lady Hawk says:

      Comments…..Dreamland, I beg to differ – not about the history of the slave trade – but on why the American plantation owners choose Africans – I’m on my way out the door to ride my motorcycle, so on return will find the sites as I both read it researching plantation farm journals and then saw a  documentary on it. 

      The Cherokee Indians of Georgia (for one) captured, brought and sold Indian slaves and later Africans – It was more cost effective for the planters to use Indians, which they tried.  My great, great grandmother was a house (domestic) slave who never spoke English. 

      The documentary was – the one about the stars searching for their roots – Brooke  Sheilds ? Spike Lee, Susan Sharadon – Who Am I (?)  The other black man on the series – who went to where the slaves were broken and then shipped to America.    

    55. Fed Up In TX says:

      Again, I didn’t differentiate on color when saying 90% are clueless.  I said 90% of city people are clueless and I stick with that one.  I live in a rural community and come from a family of farmers and ranchers.  I would tell you that in my community “people of color” do understand farming and survival and being prepared.  But even they will tell you that their family from the big cities don’t have a clue!

      And yes everyone’s hand will fit a shovel, but there is only so much shoveling to be done.  The hard truth is we are all gonna have to make painful choices if it hits the ultimate fan.  I would rather have those with experience than ability!  Because when you group my family and others close to me together, our resources (farm, springs, and the like) will only support a limited amount of extras and charity.

      And I don’t see it as a class thing.  I know some very wealthy people who aren’t prepared in the least.  Frankly, I think wealth holds a lot of people back from preparing.  The don’t want to face a reality where there life isn’t as “perfect” as they have now.  It is too hard of a reality for them to face.  Again, not all, but certainly some.

    56. Tom says:

      How did we get down this road?  Who on here wants to admit to the mistake of bringing this up?

    57. Durango Kidd says:

      Well, Tom; I guess I have to step up and accept responsibility for the “road less taken” here as I am the one to mention “inner city residents” first. My reference was to mentality and psychology of the individuals not to their color. It has nothing to do with color or race. Neither was it some unspoken code between white folk.

      It has everything to do with how I believe these people will react when confronted by the brutal truth of survival of the fittest, when they have not and are not prepared for teowawki regardless of the trigger.

      I base my perception on the behavior that I have seen demonstrated in the events that I mentioned and that is apparent in the news everyday; and because I grew up in the inner city. One of only two white kids on the basketball team., BTW.(I’m a guard!) It is about the bad guys vs the good guys and the grace, or lack of it, that those impacted by teotwawki will approach the changes when push comes to shove. With that understanding, I think we can get back on topic and off race.

      Ladyhawk, if my comments have offended you I apologize, there was no offense intended. Its time to get past race in America; Obama was elected by white independents, not the black vote, or he would have never made it out of Iowa. At the same time, we need to declare the Age of White Guilt Over! Don’t hold my generation responsible for events and attitudes in existance before I was born.

      Sterotyping is not accurate but there is always an intrinsic basis for it. For example, if I were drowning in a swimming pool and there were three guys at the edge of the pool, would I try to get the attention of the latino, african american, or white guy?

      Well the latino is likely to be too small to rescue me because I weigh 230 lbs (all muscle). There is a 90% plus chance that the black guy can’t swim, because recent surveys show that only 1 in 10 can. I am going to scream bloody murder for the white guy to rescue me.

      Not because he is white, but because I perceive him to be the best choice of the three. Now the black guy could be a member or former member of the US Olympic Swim Team, but I don’t know that. I do know that the latino is too small and the black guy probably doesn’t know how to swim.

      The debate about the likely response of inner city residents is akin to the debate about Illegal immigration. Its not about color. Illegal Immigration is about economics, taxes, jobs, and public safety.

      The response of inner city residents and non-preppers in general to teotwawki is not about race either. It’s about those who prepare and those who don’t. Its time for everyone to move on to the new challenges that confront us all. These challenges will require our intelligence, energy, and unity.

      America First!

      GWTW: Take your head out of your ass, and quit trying to defend an indefensible position. When the SHTF in America we will let you fix everything! Unfortunately there will not be energy or electricity to run the machinery after you have done such a  great job replacing the grid!

    58. oneshotkill says:

      @ Durango Kidd

      I have to disagree with you. No matter how big you are, properly preformed you can be rescued from the water from someone smaller. And on the machinery thing lathes and sewing machines were pedal power once and they can be again.

      @ lady Hawk

      It doesn’t take a mental genius to know that in a SHTF scenario the black race and the whites that pretend to be are the most likely to rape, rob, and kill for fun rather than help them self’s and others. History does show us that. 

    59. Tom says:

      I live in the city, more inner than outer & nothing offended me or even provoked thought on previous said subject.  DK, I’d save you by throwing you a life ring then come in after you or anybody else.  I have the feeling that most of us are waiting on a post from someone else…..

    60. Copland says:

      Did you not learn anything from Katrina?  Don’t worry about the blacks, they will be to busy looting Best Buy.  Never know when a big screen and the latest cellphone might come in  handy during the collapse.

    61. Jonny V says:

      OK Tom, I’ll fess up.  I don’t feel that I started, but I damn sure contributed.  I have as much to blame as the next…….

      Back to the original topic…..On the whole, while I see some holes in JWR article, I feel that overall, he is probably right.  Maybe the real number is a town of 1000 instead of a town of 500, or maybe it could be a town of no more than 750.  The point is that we don’t have an exact number but we do know that the number is not very high, certainly not above one or two thousand at the most.

      How do we know this?  Well, we extrapolate.  In small towns, the folks who live there generally do so close to the land.  They have land, generally there is farming activity, there is a REAL sense of community (not the overblown hype on the news when some city slicker gets shot to death), and the most important part EVERYONE SEEMS TO KNOW EACH OTHER.  People are self sufficient and know how to do things.

      Wow, I just wrote this big thing railing on city people, and then I saw that Tom ( a person I have nothing against ) lives in the city.  So on this one occasion, discretion is the better part of valor.

      A small town scenario is where you are most likely to be surrounded by people prepared to deal with what life dishes out.  No, they will not have the largest financial portfolios.  What they will have is the knowledge and experience to survive in rough conditions.  City people are likely to be surrounded by looters and criminals, (both in uniform and out).  There is no comparison.  Anyone with a brain will flee the city at the earliest opportunity.

    62. greaseman says:

      Comments….. I wish this thread would get off the race thing. In the end, prepping has nothing do with race.  Misery doesn’t care what color you are.
          I live in an urban area now, but have lived in the sticks also.  In a bad, grid out for a long time situation, the country folk would probably make out much better than the urban folks like me.  I am doing what I can, but if a grid has been down for a while, I have a feeling I’m going to be fighting off zombies more than taking care of my own business.  I think this will be a 24/7 thing after a few weeks of no power.  I’m sure I will have to form a mutual protection group with my neighbors. at some point, it might be head for the hills time, but that will be a decision that I will have to make on the run.
          good luck with whatever your plan is.

    63. Durango Kidd says:

      Well, getting back to the thread, while I have an immense respect for Rawles, I personally think 500 is pretty low. I could be comfortable in a town or small city significantly larger than that. I grew up in a town of 40,000 souls of all races and ethnicities and everyone pretty much knew everyone and got along.  That is the difference I think between the mentality and psychology of metropolis and smallville.

      In the big city you are anonymous. And a stranger. In a small town you are a neighbor. I have spent the summer in a couple of small towns and I have been treated like a friend of the family, so to speak, by everyone. Small towns and small cities are very friendly and very hospitable. I believe that they would retain much of this mindset even in teotwawki.

      But I also believe that they would perceive masses of people in motion as a potential threat. I think that is, or would be, a natural reaction. One is a guest. A dozen are visitors. One hundred a mob.

    64. Durango Kidd says:

      30 million is an invasion.

    65. Tom says:

      I believe that most of us here have a back up solution, a generator and/or our wits.  Let’s discuss the finer details. 

    66. Rick Blaine says:

      I’ll make one comment about Rawles’ thoughts on guns/ammo…

      Regardless of whether or not the S is going to HTF in the “near” future, I have to agree that picking up “extra” guns and ammo is just not that bad of an idea – especially since prices have come down quite a bit from the craziness of late ’08 and early ’09.  As I’ve stated here before, I have more confidence in my guns/ammo retaining a decent amount of their value more so than anything else I own – regardless of what is to come.

      …and if you really just want something to go “bang” if need be, you can pick up surplus bolt-action rifles, such as Mosin Nagants, for under $100.  Granted, they usually fire a somewhat rare round (7.62×54) but you can find it for under 25 cents/round right now…and while they are big and bulky, they are generally considered to be pretty darn accurate.

      You can also find old single-shot shotguns right now for around $100 – if not less.

      It still burns my butt to think that I had an opportunity to buy unfired SKSs like 10 years ago…way before I was a gun person…for $100 each…

    67. wooba says:

      Greaseman,

      not wanting to seem inflamitory, but race usually has a lot to do with preps coming into a turbulent phase in history. As the Jews and Russians and poles and checks and the Thai’s and the Phillipinos found out in WWII. After which the lesson was passed onto the Germans and Italians and Japanese.

      Modern political correctness would have everyone belive it doesn’t matter but under the surface everyone knows it does. It boils down to trust, and we trust, rightly or wrongly, those people who look and act and talk the same as we do. It’s just human nature, born out of thousands of years of experience.

      I will stick close to my own herd when TSHTF and that is just my insticts.

    68. DaveyBoy says:

      Good on you Wooba! Humans are humans, and part of that includes being near people who are like you. Colors with colors, gender with gender, interests with interests. That may be how a prefect society operates, and we’re anything but, but we can strive for it when people show us they’re not out to harm us. One bad act can ruin experience. Stereotypes are not only good, they’re essential for survival.  Never evaluating individuals is stupid, but that doesn’t mean there is no place for generalization. It is very, very good, and very, very healthy, and I refuse to make any apologies for what is a natural and healthy human behavior.

      Preppers want to be with other preppers, inner city people are not (by a huge, huge majority) preppers. I don’t care what color they are, I’m from a big city, and was blessed to have a dad and mom who grew up in farming communities that taught me to cook, sew, garden, tend (to a degree) animals, and such.

      I have met literally thousands of people and tell virtually all my friends, at some point, that at least storing food is important, to be met with blank stares or “why?” My parent’s weren’t, and aren’t preppers, but they can see the handwriting on the wall (My dad lived through the tale end of the depression, my mom a little younger), and are getting rain barrels.

      I have a garden this year and am teaching my best friend how to look at plants and see problems with nutrients, soil, over watering, etc. His family has (quite offensively) cajoled him for learning to prep, because all, or nearly all, of his siblings have the mentality of all going back to live with mom. 

      News flash to others, if you have stored food, it runs out. If you have the know how and can produce more (garden), that’s good. If you can can/store it, even better. If you can save seeds and know how to weather droughts, and disease, and grasshoppers, you are in a good position indeed, if you have a good plot of land to do it on.

      If someone is missing any one of the above steps, they won’t make it past the 3-6 months without serious charity, no matter how hard working they are. So I suggest people start preparing, start praying, and keep doing both, because we are only a few hours away from collapse at any given moment. The intensity and duration are up for debate, but it’s all the same.

      Protect you and yours, encourage others to do the same. And may God bless, protect, motivate and encircle each of us in His arms, is my prayer, in the name of Jesus Christ, amen.

    69. Sam says:

      Comments…..Wooba, you’re right regardless how everyone else is trying to sugar coat the issue regarding the race thing out of politeness towards Lady Hawk, when SHTF the first thing that will happen is we’ll have all white , black, and hispanic, areas. The minority of whites in black areas will leave and move to live with their kind and vice versa, this scenario is depicted by Thomas Chittum in his book Civil Wars 2.
      Lady Hawk it’s quite obvious that no one in the above posts meant anything derogatory towards the black race when they mentioned inner city folks, but the fact that you interpreted it that way proves we’ll never be rid of the color disease that has infected America.
      So the grid going down is only a small symptom of a much bigger problem, all out civil war in the US. GWTW, please tell me how you’re going to fix that.

    70. DaveyBoy says:

      Just to add, that list of skills was by no means comprehensive regarding defense of food, etc. You have to walk before you crawl. If you can’t even create food, you don’t worry and preserving, and if you can’t preserve food you won’t live long enough to worry about planting the next year, and so on. I just wanted to add that for anyone wanting to add the defense argument, which always comes up, and which will be IMPOSSIBLE without community anyway. Eventually you have to go outside and be picked off or will be razed out in anger if you make people angry when facing the “Golden hoarde,” no matter how many guns one has, so I didn’t want to address the topic of community defense at this time, but recognize it as a factor..

    71. Johansyd says:

      Comments…..Lady Hawk:
      Hi!  I had to laugh when I read your post.  Didn’t think I would see the race card played here… When I, and prob. most other people on this site, say inner city – it refers to people on the government dole – generational families on welfare; it has nothing to do with race since all races are represented.  When the Africans were sold – by their own  African people (the Ashanti tribe esp.) - into slavery, it was to 3% of the population in North America – this means that 97% did NOT have slaves.  Of course, some of that 3% were Black slave owners – and no, they weren’t doing it to help anyone but themselves.   Those Americans of European descent were and are quite capable of taking care of themselves and their families.  
         I have the ‘United Nations’ represented in my grandchildren.  Maybe one day, they can actually live in a post-racial world – one without racists from both sides.  Oh well, in the meantime, we also believe and practice the ‘right to bear arms’.  Peace to all…   

    72. Tom says:

      The previous postings are interesting on living in the city.  Most are true from my experience.  This is not about me but I’ve lived on more densley populated cities than the Katrina Dome.  Most of them had populations well over 5K.  The grid would go down on them also.  I’ve seen clicks & groups.  Conserve water, food, ice, fuel for days to months.  The lines were many & long and I still stand in them.  The names start with USS & have CV, CVN, SSN attached to them.  Eight of them to be exact, so far.

    73. Concerning the statement that the city or community government would feed the people after a few weeks, I would ask with what will they feed them? If the trucks are not running to the store then how will the city or county get food to feed the people?  The food at foodbanks and community feeding centers will only last a week at normal use and that situtation would not be norml.  Also I would like to remind everyone about the “help” that came after the Tsunami, Katrina, Haiti etc. The people waited over a week before any governmental help came. And in Katrina, in our own nation, the primary help right away and for the long term,  came from the people. So don’t bet your life or that of your family on help from the government. It won’t come. If supplies are short or they have a limited amount they will use them for their families and justify it because they are governmental officials and need to survive to lead. It is sad to say but you will find heroic humanitarianism and murderours thugs and they may all be living next door to you.  I do agree that like minded groups who prepare and are outside the city stand the best chance.

    74. A Texan says:

      To GWTW and others who don’t think that the 90% figure is close to accurate:

      1)  Of course no one here is a prophet, Rawles included, so until it happens none of us knows for certain (and no one will be doing any counting until long after the event, if then, pre-supposing that civilization even recovers).

      2)  What is being discussed is an EMP attack on the grid, or a CME event of sufficient size that it will mimic an EMP attack.  Are these events unlikely?  Judging by experience, yes – though there were significant CME events in 1859 (that was the BIG one – thankfully it didn’t occur 100 or 150 years later, though it can happen again), 1921 and 1989 (Quebec’s grid went down for quite a number of hours, but it was a very weak CME compared to the other 2).  The Sun is entering a period of great activity, and even NASA scientists have publicly expressed grave concern about the effects if Earth is in the crosshairs.  As for EMP, plainly there have been no such attacks – but such is far from impossible.  It is the ultimate in assymetrical warfare – all you need is 3 bombs mounted on rockets that are transported on some stolen old ship (or one purchased by some anonymous company), and then explode the nukes somewhere around 100-250 miles above the East Coast, West coast and Texas.  Those are the only 3 grids in the country.

      So, what happens in either an EMP or CME scenario?  It is NOT just losing electric power for a few hours, days or weeks.  If it was, a few thousand or tens of thousands might die, end of story (which would be tragic, but not a threat to our way of life or civilization).  These events have the very real potential of not merely frying the circuits of every non-shielded computer out there (essentially all), but also of frying the very large transformers that are necessary to transmitting power across the country.  There are only about 300 of them, and they take from 18-24 months to receive after having been ordered – from overseas, as none are made in this country any more.  There are very few spares around, and merely swapping out some parts is unlikely to do much good as the entire mechanism will be destroyed.

      What does such a disaster mean?  No power means that gas and diesel pumps won’t work.  Many cars and trucks won’t start (that despite a report that most would – because the testing was done at fairly low levels of EMP, far lower than would be likely in a purposeful attack).  This means that THE critical element in our society, transportation, would be effectively shut down – because even if all cars and trucks do work, they’ll shortly run out of fuel.  No computers means a very hampered ability to keep track of inventory and to order new goods.  No electricity means that refrigeration and freezers don’t work.  That means not only the spoilage of much of the food in the supply lines, but that all refrigerated medications will cease to be effective.  Oh, no electricity means no modern operations and no modern medical examinations.  No manufacturing or transportation of drugs, esp. from overseas. No ATMs, no credit cards, no checks, no banks.  How do you conduct commerce without banks?  The single biggest problem is that most people have anywhere from 3 days to a week’s worth of food in their homes – and while any of us healthy adults may be able to fast for 3 days or so, tell me what happens when your kids start crying uncontrollably because they’re hungry?  Are you going to do nothing?  No one that I know, of any race or socio-economic background, would sit still for that – they’ll rob someone who has food, it happens now without the grid down and no reasonable prospect of food deliveries tomorrow.

      Who, exactly, is going to provide food, water, electricity and protection?  We all saw in Katrina that even a large number of the police stayed with their families (as is only natural).  Are electrical workers going to do differently?  I don’t think so, even if a few are highly dedicated.  Further, how are enough going to get to work without gasoline or working vehicles?

      How are the rural folk going to survive more or less intact without fuel?  Some will for sure, but nowhere near 100%.  Food production depends on oil-based fertilizers and insecticides, transportation to deliver the same and to spread it over the farm.  Tractors require fuel, and then once food is harvested it must be processed and/or preserved, and then transported to a store.  How is food going to be packaged without a working grid and the delivery of packaging materials?

      Imagine the diseases that will affect the population – a population not innoculated, unable to get to a doctor or hospital that can provide modern medical care, weakened by lack of food and drinking water that isn’t terribly clean. 

      Folks, this is no joke – it is a civilization-ending disaster in its worst potential.  Even if 20% of the population dies, that’s 60 million people and it would occur in a relatively short time – 6 months to a year.  I think that it would be worse.  People would die from heatstroke and/or exposure, starvation, lack of water, contagious diseases or rioting that might verge on a Mad Max scenario in some areas.

      The argument that “our ancestors tamed a continent” or “survived the rigors of slavery” or anything like that are nothing more than whistling past the graveyard.  Why?  Because people back then never had electricity or modern medicine or a modern transportation system.  The country had a far lesser  population because that was all that the farms could support.  People had the tools and, FAR more importantly, the knowledge about farming, insects, animals, food preservation, etc. to survive in that kind of a world – we, by and large, do not.  We are a nation of 300 million that is extremely dependent on a fine-tuned and very UNrobust set of systems – fuel production and delivery, power generation, food production, drug production, the ability to engage in financial transactions easily, etc. – and they are all intertwined.  If one fails, the others will be rocked but good – but if 2 or more fail simultaneously, we are utterly screwed.  With so little food stored, 300 million people will be unable to survive, and most of those left will be desperate and violent in their efforts to fill their bellies. 

    75. greaseman says:

      Comments….. I think we better be watching repeats of “Little House On The prarie”  There is simply no way around many people dying from starvation, exposure, disease, and what not.  Even in our modern world, it is a fine line from 21st century living, to just scrapping by. Many people are getting a taste of the hard life now, but now way as bad as it’s going to get.
          Afew years ago, we had a bad hurricance season here inFlorida.  we were without power for 3 days, just 3 days.  what an inconvience.  it’s like campming out in your own home for 3 days.  I had a generator, and was prepared, so it wasn’t too bad.   but I had friends who were without power for 3 weeeks.  Not a pleasant situation.
           But after a massive power outage, things will get bad real quick, there can be no other outcome. Even a generous soul won’t give away any of his food, at the thought of no improvement for months and months.  it will take a while for the shock to wear off, but when it does, be prepared to defend yourself.  Yes, it will be as bad as you can imagine, probably worse.

    76. GoneWithTheWind says:

      to A Texan:  An EMP attack requires a sophisticated atomic weapon.  Russia, China, France and the U.S. have these kinds of weapons and the ability to deploy them correctly (possibly Israel too).  Contrary to what has been stated in the past about nuclear generated EMP it would take far more then 1 or even 3 to put the U.S. in the dark.  The EMP effect decreases dramatically over distance.  A nuke set off over Kansas (the center of the U.S.) would possibly destroy/interupt 90% of the grid directly below it and 50% of the grid 100 miles out and 25% of the grid 150 miles out and less then 10% of the grid at 200 miles out.  You would probably need between 20 and 40 EMP devices to totally cover the continental U.S. and even then it would affect maybe 90% of the grid with varying degrees of effect because of hills and valleys and natural, even unintentional hardening of a target.  It would be almost impossible to destroy 100% of the grid or electronics in general.  But the real issue is an EMP attack is a nuclear attack pure and simple.  It would have all of the negative political effects of a straight foreward nuclear attack and almost none of the deterrent effects.  That is our military would be able to fully retalliate.  Who in the right mind would choose a massive EMP attack???  Clearly a full scale nuclear attack is possible and if that is what you mean that might cause a 90% dieoff within a year I would agree that you aren’t too far off.  I would still put the total kill at about 50% without a follow up invasion (hopefully our military would reduce the attacking country to ashes).   The bottom line is an effective EMP attack is very unlikely and even if we had one we would begin rebuilding the next day.  Yes some will die and some will suffer but most will not die.  
      The “likely” event staring us all in the face is a depression and/or Argentina style economic collapse.  This is likely and it won’t be pretty.  It will probably last for more then a decade unless WW III begins and pulls us out of the economic calamity but replaces it with a nuclear calamity.  While I think it is likely we will have a rebound soon and it wil even look like we are comng out of this, I do think a full blown economic collapse is unavoidable.  Exactly what it will look like, I’m not sure.  It could be a depression, civil unrest, or something worse.  But unlike the EMP or nuclear scenario which are unlikely the economic collapse is inevitable.  
      So which one would you prepare for?  

    77. overtheedge says:

      Comments…..Kudos to A Texan.
      Thanks for bringing up the transformer issue. Siemans is one of the largest producers of these beaucoup ton monsters. The timeframe for delivery is 2-3 years.
      I get the idea that many of the readers either hang out here sharpshooting one another of take a break to watch sports on TV. I say this due to all the dialogue currently taking place amongst power producers and distributors about the critical need for a smart grid.
      GoneWithTheWind is horribly wrong about EMP/CME. The reason for the need for a smart grid is human reactions tend to be conservative when it comes to preventing cascade events. Ther is no local event with our kludged together intertie system. 3 days is do-able. 3 weeks is desperation.
      Consider food and fresh water. No power, no distribution. Refrigerated items, forget it. Even the generator depends on fuel from the pump. A person can only store so much fuel and except for propane powered gensets, storage life is limitted.
      So what to do? Can you process the refrigerated goods by drying, salting or canning? Yes, you can eat them first. Good idea. But then what?
      90% die off in the larger cities is well within the limits of reasonableness. We tend to forget that antibiotics only became available to the public in 1947. Manufacturing antibiotics depends on electricity and (sound the drums) petrochemicals. 

      The herd is going to be culled. Unfortunately we will experience a real brain-drain in the scenario.  If our most benevolent gov’t can hold it together, good. I certainly hope so. But no matter what may happen, one thing is certain. Most all of us will experience a disaster during our lifetime. 20-50 foresight beats 20-20 hindsight every time.  I have seen empty store shelves and the desperate looks on people’s faces when it happened.

      We are in for a storm. Even with preparedness, many will fall by the wayside. If you can’t feed your neighbor, then they may be your immediate threat.  The irony is that each of us lacks the skills and time to thrive in a survival scenario. There are only so many hours in a day. The rural environment demands that you have a network of skilled people to provide the products and services that will be required for long-term survival.

      Let me make this forthright as possible. Your priorities are self – family – friends – neighbors. Life is all about choices, so choose wisely. For those that ridicule serious preparedness, why do you buy insurance? Some of us prefer the better buy of self-insuring. When I’m dead, that life insurance policy does me no good. If my heirs toss out my small accumulation of stuff, its thier problem.

    78. greaseman says:

      Comments…..@ overtheedge
       You give a very good, realistic assesment. Our grid system is a lot more  “touch’ than many people think.  The point about the transformers is also well made. people tend to think you just snap your  fingers, and repairs are made.  We have become used to things being repaired very quick. But ask someone about that after a bad hurricane, or earthquake.

              If people want to know what’s it’s like to live without power, go back and read accounts of life in the US, in the 1800′s. Up till the 1950′s or so, a large portion of the population lived on farms, or worked on them.  Back then,, people spent most waking hours producing food.  Can you hitch a team of horses, and plow a field? Can you milk a cow? Do you know how to grow crops?  If you think about it, estimates  of a large die off seem very real to me.  Now, no one knows how do do much of anything, except wait in a line for the next i-phone, or tell you everything about Dancing with the stars, or something.  When headlines about what Lindsey Lohan is doing tops the economic news, you know we are in trouble. Can you say ,”Distraction:?
            I think when the “last straw” event happens,things  will happen in lightning speed. Somewhat aware people will clean out the grocery stores very quickly, while the rest await orders from the local emergency  authorities.  The local authorities will lie their collective asses off, as tthey tell people to be calm,  and they know there is no way to feed thousands of people for more than a few days.
            Yes, the herd will be culled, and hopefully your neighbors will work with you, protecting your selves, and guarding what supplies you have. Then, you’re stuck whereever your at, with what you have, and that will be that.
             The possible scenerios are endless, but any common sense person can figure that there are no good outcomes from what we are entering into. Our system must re-set itself. It will, and it won’t be long.  Good luck.

    79. Tim says:

      Hey Ladyhawke, as someone raised in the big city, i agree that ‘inner city’ is a common term amongst most people that generally refers to the poorest city folk, and generally folk of color. no one refers to people living in bel air, hollywood or manhattan as ‘inner city’. although everyone here claims they are simply referring to city folk, then why not just say ‘city folk’ instead of using a term universally recognized by most people as the poorest neighborhoods of color. it’s funny because once you brought up race, it didn’t take long for those such as ‘oneshotkill’ to make the following statement “It doesn’t take a mental genius to know that in a SHTF scenario the black race and the whites that pretend to be are the most likely to rape, rob, and kill for fun rather than help them self’s and others. History does show us that. ” All I can say, my dear ‘oneshotkill’ is that one of the most horrific, systematic and efficient murdering campaigns was effected and executed by WHITE people during the holocaust – the germans were an essentially white nation going thru severe econonomic hardship. Have you heard of the spanish inquisition? have you read native american history after white europeans fullfilled their manifest destiny? and how about DaveyBoy’s comment “Stereotypes are not only good, they’re essential for survival.” The problem with that mentality is while you’re busy pointing out the problems and issues with the ‘other’ group, you completely fail to notice the problems and issues with your own group. I doubt any wealth destroyed by ‘looters’ of any color matches the teensiest tiniest fraction of the TRILLIONS looted from all good americans by the mostly white wall street crowd. should we call all white people crooks and thieves? rediculous! ladyhawke had a valid point – there is an ugly and ignorant underlying thread here. go to any city, or most any town for that matter, and ask people what they think of when you say ‘inner city’. stop hating, you preppers!

    80. Anthony says:

      What, no love for Glenn Beck on this page as a source? And george soros as somone worthy as a category? The man that collapsed countries,a he put it”for fun”. Sorry, not hanging around here, going to The Blaze.

    81. nelson says:

      What if you are in jail. Would it be safer in jail, or would officers kill all inmates or leave them locked in. MY gut tells me that something is around the corner. The grid and power is going to shut down. A polar clock has been found in a large form of a cropcircle. It looks just like a polar clock. and word is that it shows a Time of 6months, 7days, 1week, 10hours, 30mins, 15seconds.

    82. derek says:

      I am totally on board with the chaos that will ensue if the grid goes down.  I have just begun to prep, but before i get further, what happens to all the nuke plants when there is no power to keep the fuel rods cool?  isn’t all this prepping useless unless you have a bunker to outlast the radiation.  there are like 700 nuke plants and test sites across the world, you won’t be able to grow anything for 3 or more years with radiation dusting across the land. 

     
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