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Global Economic Plunge Becomes Severe: “65 Percent Chance of Recession”

Michael Snyder
December 3rd, 2015
Economic Collapse Blog
Comments (51)

train-wreck-dead-bankers

This article was written by Michael Snyder and originally published at his Economic Collapse blog.

Editor’s Comment: There is now indication from virtually every sector that the world is standing at its wits end; economically, there is no way out. Perhaps that is why we are seeing wars and distraction being whipped up to keep things moving along, as the pain sets in, and the world braces for another impact.

In all reality, most of the damage is done in slow motion, without much public attention. The system has been thoroughly looted and rigged, while the remaining assets have all been readied for a new explosion, and subsequent fire sale.

Alarm Bells Go Off As 11 Critical Indicators Scream The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper

by Michael Snyder

Economic activity is slowing down all over the planet, and a whole host of signs are indicating that we are essentially exactly where we were just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008.  Yesterday, I explained that the economies of Japan, Brazil, Canada and Russia are all in recession.  Today, I am mainly going to focus on the United States.  We are seeing so many things happen right now that we have not seen since 2008 and 2009.  In so many ways, it is almost as if we are watching an eerie replay of what happened the last time around, and yet most of the “experts” still appear to be oblivious to what is going on.  If you were to make up a checklist of all of the things that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash, virtually all of them are happening right now.  The following are 11 critical indicators that are absolutely screaming that the global economic crisis is getting deeper…

#1 On Tuesday, the price of oil closed below 40 dollars a barrel.  Back in 2008, the price of oil crashed below 40 dollars a barrel just before the stock market collapsed, and now it has happened again.

#2 The price of copper has plunged all the way down to $2.04.  The last time it was this low was just before the stock market crash of 2008.

#3 The Business Roundtable’s forecast for business investment in 2016 has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#4 Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.  This is a huge problem because corporate debt in the U.S. has approximately doubled since just before the last financial crisis.

#5 The Bloomberg U.S. economic surprise index is more negative right now than it was at any point during the last recession.

#6 Credit card data that was just released shows that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession.

#7 As I mentioned yesterday, U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last recession.

#8 The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded.  Not even during the depths of the last recession was it ever this low.

#9 In 2008, commodity prices crashed just before the stock market did, and late last month the Bloomberg Commodity Index hit a 16 year low.

#10 In the past, stocks have tended to crash about 12-18 months after a peak in corporate profit margins.  At this point, we are 15 months after the most recent peak.

#11 If you look back at 2008, you will see that junk bonds crashed horribly.  Why this is important is because junk bonds started crashing before stocks did, and right now they have dropped to the lowest point that they have been since the last financial crisis.

If just one or two of these indicators were flashing red, that would be bad enough.

The fact that all of them seem to be saying the exact same thing tells us that big trouble is ahead.

And I am not the only one saying this.  Just today, a Reuters article discussed the fact that Citigroup analysts are projecting that there is a 65 percent chance that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession in 2016…

The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.

As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi’s rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.

Personally, I am convinced that we are already in a recession.  There is a lag in the official numbers, so often we don’t know that we are officially in one until it is well underway.  For example, we now know that a recession started in early 2008, but in the summer of 2008 Ben Bernanke and our top politicians were still insisting that there was not going to be a recession.  They were denying what was actually happening right in front of their eyes, and the same thing is happening now.

And of course if the government was actually using honest numbers, we would all be talking about the recession that never seems to end.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, honest numbers would show that the U.S. economy has continually been in recession since 2005.

But just like in 2008, the “experts” at the Federal Reserve are assuring all of us that everything is going to be just fine.  In fact, Janet Yellen is convinced that things are so rosy that she seems quite confident that the Fed will raise interest rates in December

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled Wednesday that the Fed is all but certain to raise interest rates this month for the first time in nearly a decade, saying that gains in the economy and labor market have met the central bank’s goals.

Her comments at the Economic Club of Washington amount to the strongest indication the Fed has provided so far that it will take action at a December 15-16 meeting.

This is the exact same kind of mistake that the Federal Reserve made back in the late 1930s.  They thought that the U.S. economy was finally recovering, and so interest rates were raised.  That turned out to be a tragic mistake.

But this time around, any mistake that the Fed makes will have global consequences.  The rising U.S. dollar is already crippling emerging markets all around the globe, and an interest rate hike will just push the U.S. dollar even higher.  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse“.

Many people are waiting for “the big crash”, but the truth is that almost everything has crashed already.

Oil has crashed.

Commodities have crashed.

Gold and silver have crashed.

Junk bonds have crashed.

Chinese stocks have crashed.

Dozens of other stock markets around the world have already crashed.

But the “big event” that many are waiting for is the crash of U.S. stocks.  And just like in 2008, it is inevitable that a U.S. stock crash will follow all of the other crashes that I just mentioned.

Sometimes I get criticized for issuing these kinds of alarms.  But just think of how many people could have been helped if they would have known that the financial crisis of 2008 was going to happen ahead of time.

The exact same patterns that we experienced back then are playing out once again right in front of our eyes, and the more people that we can warn in advance the better.


beginning-of-the-end-snyderMichael T. Snyder is a graduate of the University of Florida law school and he worked as an attorney in the heart of Washington D.C. for a number of years.

Today, Michael is best known for his work as the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog and The American Dream

If you want to know what things in America are going to look like in a few years read his new book The Beginning of the End.

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The Finger is on the Nuke Button | Future Money Trends

Author: Michael Snyder
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Date: December 3rd, 2015
Website: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/alarm-bells-go-off-as-11-critical-indicators-scream-the-global-economic-crisis-is-getting-deeper

Copyright Information: This content has been contributed to SHTFplan by a third-party or has been republished with permission from the author. Please contact the author directly for republishing information.

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51 Comments...

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  1. Godsoldier says:

    Yep all going to shit thats why preppers collect and hoard ketchup mustard and other packets so that we can choke down the big bite of shit sandwich everyone is gonna take a bite of

  2. Stolz Vorfahren says:

    Wait, Michael Snyder earlier said the end is now and the world is ending, now he is saying back to recession? Is 2016 the end or 2017? LOL.

  3. Godsoldier says:

    Off subject but on subject at this point of time is it just me or did others catch that the news kept on over and over stressing the reference term LONG GUNS not assult rifles and also stresses that law enforcement only had pistols

    • Anonymous says:

      Yeah, I noticed that.

      And from every source simultaneously, not just one.

      In the real world this doesn’t happen unless planned and coordinated by someone in charge of news reporting, probably hidden well behind the scenes.

      It’s good that you point that out, I imagine it slipped past most people.

      Control the language -> control the discussion. Control the discussion -> control the people (or at least the way they think).

      • john stiner says:

        The AK-47s used in the attack are already illegal in California, so how do you argue for gun control when the guns used are already illegal?

        I’ve even see some news articles reporting that the shooters used AR-15s, but the shell casings I’ve seen in the pictures are of an AK-47.

        There is a real war on for propaganda, and the FEDs are winning the war for people’s minds.

        • Plan twice, prep once says:

          The media is trying to continue to say that the weapons used were legally purchased, I’m reading that they were straw purchased in another state and then transported across state lines to a place where the were illegal.

          Multiple federal and state laws were violated, the guns were in fact illegally obtained and possessed.

          The press is attacking with propaganda that exploits terrorism.

      • I noticed that too… long guns.

    • Kfilly says:

      Yes, I did hear that stated a lot. I also was watching MSNBC drivel. They were basically calling for gun confiscation on the air. At one point, the commentators even mocked people who had lots of guns. They essentially stated these people who have all of these guns will have them when they come to confiscate them. Pretty chilling thing for the Reich to start issuing this propaganda.

    • Kulafarmer says:

      Yea, caught about 15 minutes of broadcast while i was doing something yesterday and heard long guns and pipe bombs about 10 times in that 15 minutes.
      Mental programing

      • Anonymous says:

        Someone probably ordered the term “long guns” to be used because they didn’t want the gun control movement openly confronted by the fact of Muslims using guns that were already prohibited in California -California has even gone as far as hunting down and confiscating guns- showing the laws against them to be useless at preventing their use by killers.

        A day later there is no real reporting of what guns they used, but reloading during the attack was mentioned so that would rule out California legal removable magazine fed AR’s or AK’s.

  4. Anonymous says:

    If a new recession comes we’ll be going into it in a far worse condition than when we went into the last one.

    Which will make it much more severe for the common man.

    Government and the Elite as well as those on the bottom (who make their living off of government subsidy) will be relatively unaffected the same as last time. Their lives will continue pretty much as normal.

    Everyone in between will find the situation to be rather unpleasant.

    So, if you’re smart, get into one of those two unaffected groups before it starts. Or just tough it out, I doubt it will last much over maybe twenty or so years.

    • We no longer have the financial resilience we had in 2008. I jumped the crowd and downsized early on. I did see 2008 coming but didn’t have the resources to move quickly enough (including surgery during the time period). I am (hopefully) in a sustainable position this time.

      you know it is gonna be bad because the Republicans pushed through an open ended bailout for the banksters (written by Chase Bank attorneys) as a rider to the mandatory budget bill. Elizabeth Warren called them out but Obama came to the floor of Congress and helped Bohner get it passed.

  5. Godsoldier says:

    When shit ever goes down make them say WHAT THE FUCK for just 1 breif second by making your first shot be from a black powder rifle and use reg black powder not pyrodex that way you get a big cloud of smoke

    • Kulafarmer says:

      I was picturing one of those old blunderbus type guns with the big flared muzzle loaded full of marbles

      • john stiner says:

        Blunderbus full of Obamaphones.

      • Anonymous says:

        Wish I could find one of those other than an original 17 century one for many thousands of dollars.

        I’m talking a real one in 4 or 2 gauge, not one of those simple 50 caliber muzzle loader kit guns that are just a regular muzzle loader with a flared muzzle.

        Anyone know of any manufacturers making a practical (not museum quality hand made reproductions) one at a reasonable price?

        I’m beginning to think I’ll have to make it myself if I want one. There’s just something appealing about using a couple hundred grains of powder and a half pound of shot (would probably work well on burglars as well as a flock of ducks).

  6. Godsoldier says:

    Sorry for hoggin post too much good coffee

    • Makemyday says:

      Communist News Network–Faux News–Faux Business Channel–All MSM…

      “Its gotta be terror, terror, terror, terror…”

      Politicians “We have to have gun legislation, confiscation”, “We have to have gun legislation, confiscation”……

      “Never let a crisis go to waste”.

      Looking at gun sales this month American’s are not buying some of this “bullshit”.

      My only wish is the traitors in America get their just deserves when their agenda is finally outed; that those guns are pointed at the REAL culprits.

      • Stolz Vorfahren says:

        Makemyday, Amen to that. Thanks for the earlier link btw. Great link indeed.

      • truebeliever kjv says:

        there is nothing we can do about any of this voting wont work system rigged broken and pointless all there is to do is be right with the lord keep your powder dry and be ready most every thing in this world is false the strange is most often whats true.not happy about this most people are lost and going to hell.I allso believe the lord has put it on alot of peoples hearts to prepare. a wise son prepares in the summer.those who are saved where called before the foundation of the world most people will knot indure sound doctrine there is nothing we can do for those people GOD could force people to serve him but he gave us free will because forced service means nothing

  7. watching and waiting says:

    Well.
    To make it short.
    All we need now is for someone to pull the plug and we all go down the drain.

  8. Godsoldier says:

    Kfilly they are getting desperate and sloppy they know they are running out of time and are 1 step forward 3 back afterall look at the black friday gun sales numbers you know they are saying shit

  9. Really??? says:

    The article title should be corrected to, “65 Percent Chance of CONTINUED Recession”. 😉

    And that GD pop up when you log in is F’ing ANNOYING.

    • TheGuy says:

      Fuck’s sake “the recession” started in 1975. I mean really.

      People act like prosperity is “normal” and recession is “abnormal”… why is it then that I can count the prosperous bubble cycles since 1975 on one hand and still have fingers left over?

  10. God soldier says:

    Annoying yes but serves a purpose to pay the bills I suppose kinda like stepping in dog shit in the back yard when you cut the grass but you keep the dog for a reason

    • Really??? says:

      Usually I click through it, since I’m already on his list, but when you’re in the middle of typing and it pop’s….oh what a pain.

      And I’m all for paying the bills, I get it, still annoying. Didn’t get it this time so the cookie must have taken hold.

  11. God soldier says:

    Will Vaseline protect for long term storage also any uses for toilet wax rings being a soft wax

  12. God soldier says:

    Nooo bubba nooo the cries at the fema camp at night but seriously will Vaseline protect for long term storage

    • Anonymous says:

      The idea is to form a barrier against atmospheric moisture and acidic pollutants.

      Vaseline should work, along with wheel bearng grease or any other petroleum grease that is intended to be in contact with metal should work.

      But consider vacuum packaging, no messy cleanup when needed and it’s ready to use right out of the bag or tube.

  13. God soldier says:

    Not talking about weiner storage but guns

  14. God soldier says:

    No cosmoline in cabinet and will probably have to do in a bit of a hurry last minute

  15. God soldier says:

    Heat of the moment when the moods right hahaha more like when the neighbor down the road is getting hit or across town

    • Really??? says:

      Then it’s too late. IF they’re coming for you, you’ll be days behind the power curve.

      One saying is if it’s time to hide it, it’s time to USE it.

      Another saying is to wait it out to fight another day on YOUR terms, not theirs. Only problem with that is if they haul you off to wherever you may never get a second chance to stop them or slow them down. Decision’s, decisions.

      Vaseline would be better than nothing. But if you’re doing something quick the gun will be OK for short term, toss it in a bag, hide and retrieve after they leave if you’re not leaving with them.

  16. KY Mom says:

    A COUPLE HELL-BENT ON JIHAD? Husband & wife Muslim gunmen who carried out massacre that killed 14 left pipe bombs, ran ‘IED facility’ —
    will FBI now call it an act of terror?

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/12/03/2-suspects-killed-shootout-san-bernardino-massacre-14-killed/?intcmp=hpbt1

  17. swinging richard says:

    The financial system is in a mess because of abuse and mismanagement. The only way to fix it is to change the system. To many getting rich off others. It is rumored to have been a reason to kill JFK.

  18. Anonamous says says:

    Just heard yet another call out on CNBC about the climate control problems and global warming.
    For the govt trolls on this site,we are sick of hearing about their meeting. It would be different
    If they really were really concerned about it but surely the talk is more about terror problems.
    If your really serious about it get China’s pollution problem front and center and address all
    The drink containers that ALL should be returnable EVERY one. Also consider all the bottled
    Fluids on shelves that should not be there as well as fluids in landfills lost till the plastics
    Break down. If your radiator holds no fluid it over heats from drought, duh. The planet has
    Recycled water since the dinosaur age,that’s right we are drinking Dino pee! Keep the water
    In the environment as much as possible and maybe it will rain instead of drought. Clean up
    The oceans return all plastics,glass,bottles,now take that info to your meeting and see if you can
    Get them to do something………..oh yea and elephants and donkeys fly!

  19. PO'd Patriot says:

    One thing that I don’t ever come here for is ‘good’ news. With King Koon reaffirming his stance on new gun control I’m not worried at all.

  20. Old Guy says:

    65% chance of recession. Wake up we are in a recession there hasn’t been any recovery. No Recovery just the government throwing money around and creating inflation. We are 100% headed for a depression.

  21. Eco prepper says:

    Looks llike Michael Snyder was way off on his crash prediction. This article appears to be claiming a crash is here so he can save face. He only has til the end of the year for the economy to collapse or he will be wrong. And, to me at least, he should quit publishing his economic doomsday blogs if he is in fact wrong again.